what is "the long run"
Only if it involves lots of drinking, passing out and waking up in my room with an extra 2k in my pocket.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAxel, if you believe that this guy's results are really what he says they are, I have a winning baccarat system to sell you.
He is trolling, pure and simple.
The problem is you seemed to be indicating that there is some SPECIAL way to beat Black Jack. You are also indicating since you are winning that splitting 88 and standing on 16 and what ever other crazy plays you might make, somehow proves that what you are doing must be the right way. You are suggesting anyone who believes in the REAL Math is foolish.Quote: cwwbjrWasn't a brag.. Don't take that statement out of context. It was merely a response to a false implication and a sarcastic challenge of the validity of my play. No more no less. There are those who are easily intimidated by things they can't understand and will resort to sarcastic criticism to help themselves cope with their ignorance. If my play beat his math, so what ... I could care less ... My message to him was.." I don't play by his math so don't challenge my play and I won't challenge your math......!! Fair enough? Hope that clears things up for you!
My question is for you. If what you are doing is working so well, why come ask about it? Just go do it.
What are you trying to understand? It was explained to you. Can you accept it was just luck? or do you believe it was skill gained from some system you have Mastered?
Quote: kubikulannMy monitor doe not align your figures. Here is a readable version for those in my predicament.
Game EV (-) SD N0 Craps 100x 0.014 101 51,049,505 Jacks or Better (Full pay, 100 draw) 0.005 15 10,122,277 Jacks or Better (Full Pay) 0.005 4 923,270 Keno pick 10 0.396 332 703,406 Craps 10x 0.014 11 587,669 Double Zero Roulette (single number) 0.053 35 442,756 Blackjack liberal rules 0.003 1 168,686 Craps 3-4-5 0.014 5 121,509 Slot machine (estimate) 0.050 9 32,400 Let it Ride 0.035 5 21,695 Let it Ride $1 bonus bet 0.230 32 19,357 Blackjack standard rules 0.010 1 13,225 Baccarat banker 0.011 1 7,698 Baccarat player 0.012 1 5,870 Blackjack 6:5 0.025 1 2,116 Casino War (tie) 0.187 8 1,990 Casino War 0.029 1 1,329 Double Zero Roulette (even bet) 0.053 1 725 Baccarat tie 0.144 3 338 Keno pick 1 0.250 1 27
But I guess the SD figures are incorrect? Please let me know.
I's done got me some questions 'bout 'dis here table:
What, pray tell, is N sub zero? What does it stand for and how is it derived? (Youse all can tell I'm alearnin' math talk 'cause I be saying "derived" all the time now.)
How is it in Roulette that there are different entries in the table when I've always heard tell that all bets in roulette are 5.26 percent house edge?
Sorry for that HunterThompson like post.(Whoever that dude be).
The number of hands necessary for the casino to have an 84.1% chance (1 standard deviation) of being ahead of you.Quote: FleaStiffWhat, pray tell, is N sub zero?
Let EV and SD denote the expected value and standard deviation for 1 hand. Then for N hands, the expected value is N*EV and the standard deviation is sqrt(N)*SD. N_O is then the value of N that satisfies:Quote:how is it derived?
N*EV > sqrt(N)*SD.
This simplifies (try it) to N > (SD/EV)^2.
So, N_0 = (SD/EV)^2.
Different SD's give different N_0's.Quote:How is it in Roulette that there are different entries in the table when I've always heard tell that all bets in roulette are 5.26 percent house edge?
Quote: WizardI'm going to spin this into an Ask the Wizard question somehow.
Here is a table that shows the number of hands required for the casino to show a profit for various probabilities.
Game Bet Edge Std dev 0.9 0.95 0.975 0.99 Baccarat Banker 1.06% 0.93 12621 20791 29520 41588 Baccarat Player 1.24% 0.95 9741 16046 22783 32097 Baccarat Tie 14.36% 2.64 555 915 1299 1830 Blackjack Strip rules 0.28% 1.15 277046 456388 648001 912912 Casino War 2.88% 2.24 9935 16367 23238 32739 Craps Pass 1.41% 1 8259 13606 19318 27216 Craps Don't Pass 1.36% 0.99 8631 14219 20188 28442 Pai gow 1.5% 0.75 4106 6764 9604 13530 Pai gow poker 1.46% 0.75 4334 7140 10137 14281 Three Card Poker Ante 3.37% 1.64 3890 6407 9098 12817 Three Card Poker Pairplus 7.28% 2.85 2517 4146 5887 8294 Jacks or Better 9/6 0.46% 4.42 1540713 2538073 354151 5076903 Jacks or Better 9/5 3.54% 4.42 142034 243072 350929 500032 Jacks or Better 8/5 2.7% 4.4 48094 84383 123102 176586 Jacks or Better 7/5 3.85% 4.38 25100 43688 64109 92533 Jacks or Better 6/5 5% 4.36 13754 26569 39923 58235
Hey Wiz, just a quick correction, the 9/5 JoB edge should be 1.55%.
Also, it looks as far as PGP edge, are you averaging a player banker and dealer banker HE for those shops that allow a player to bank every other hand?
What, pray tell, is N sub zero?
The number of hands necessary for the casino to have an 84.1% chance (1 standard deviation) of being ahead of you.
Then is it the player's goal play FEWER hands than indicated so that the casino will have a LESS THAN 84.1% chance of being ahead of the player?
Quote: AxelWolfOnly if it involves lots of drinking, passing out and waking up in my room with an extra 2k in my pocket.
Please don't make the details of my system public. If the casinos catch on they will stop letting you drink while you gamble!
Yes, the player should play 0 hands if the house has the edge. That's how the player maximizes his profit and hurts the casino's bottom line the most. Just imagine the fate of casinos if every (non-AP) player followed this optimal strategy.Quote: FleaStiffThen is it the player's goal play FEWER hands than indicated so that the casino will have a LESS THAN 84.1% chance of being ahead of the player?
As for the word "FEWER" -- N_0 refers to a player's lifetime, not a single session, trip, year or any other period of time in which future play will occur.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI think we should just start calling these "MLife rules," since those are the only places left on the strip you can find them (excepting the CP high limit room).
The following places have the "Liberal Strip rules":
Aria, Bellagio, Caesars, Cosmo, Encore/Wynn, Green Valley Ranch, M, Mandalay, MGM, Mirage, NYNY, Palazzo/Venetian, Palms, TI, Tropicana.
Again, this is defined as:
6 decks
Stand on soft 17
Double after split, surrender and re-splitting aces all allowed.
Very NiceQuote: WizardI'm going to spin this into an Ask the Wizard question somehow.
Here is a table that shows the number of hands required for the casino to show a profit for various probabilities.
Game Bet Edge Std dev 0.9 0.95 0.975 0.99 Baccarat Banker 1.06% 0.93 12621 20791 29520 41588 Baccarat Player 1.24% 0.95 9741 16046 22783 32097 Baccarat Tie 14.36% 2.64 555 915 1299 1830 Blackjack Strip rules 0.28% 1.15 277046 456388 648001 912912 Casino War 2.88% 2.24 9935 16367 23238 32739 Craps Pass 1.41% 1 8259 13606 19318 27216 Craps Don't Pass 1.36% 0.99 8631 14219 20188 28442 Pai gow 1.5% 0.75 4106 6764 9604 13530 Pai gow poker 1.46% 0.75 4334 7140 10137 14281 Three Card Poker Ante 3.37% 1.64 3890 6407 9098 12817 Three Card Poker Pairplus 7.28% 2.85 2517 4146 5887 8294 Jacks or Better 9/6 0.46% 4.42 1540713 2538073 354151 5076903 Jacks or Better 9/5 3.54% 4.42 142034 243072 350929 500032 Jacks or Better 8/5 2.7% 4.4 48094 84383 123102 176586 Jacks or Better 7/5 3.85% 4.38 25100 43688 64109 92533 Jacks or Better 6/5 5% 4.36 13754 26569 39923 58235
This is based on the Normal Distribution in all cases except for Jacks or Better. That approximation becomes untrustworthy if the number of expected events of any one outcome is five or less. So, for video poker, I used the Poisson distribution for the royals and the Normal approximation otherwise.
This is a new math exercise that sounds fun especially for Video Poker.
Care to show how you accomplished the JOB VP values?
The way I have seen these type of tables created is to work a different way than the Wizard did.
Take a number of trials, calculate the EV and SD for that number of trials (1 unit bet)
EV/SD that gives a z-score that can be looked up in a table or have a function do it for you.
like this that I have I think came from a casino book for Baccarat.
or one I made for the pass line bet at Craps
I even showed the error between the normal distribution and a direct calculation.
It is easily seen as the number of trials increases the error decreases, showing the value of a higher number of trials in any sample size.
I used Excel for this probability of a casino win
| trials | ev | sd | ev/sd | normsdist prob | prob | error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 1.414141414 | 9.999000052 | 0.141428284 | 0.556234194 | 0.516693276 | 0.039540918 |
| 200 | 2.828282828 | 14.14072148 | 0.200009797 | 0.57926354 | 0.551545577 | 0.027717964 |
| 400 | 5.656565657 | 19.9980001 | 0.282856567 | 0.611356605 | 0.592130443 | 0.019226162 |
| 500 | 7.070707071 | 22.35844382 | 0.316243256 | 0.624091061 | 0.607062442 | 0.01702862 |
| 1000 | 14.14141414 | 31.61961449 | 0.447235501 | 0.672647485 | 0.661186786 | 0.011460698 |
| 2000 | 28.28282828 | 44.71688765 | 0.632486512 | 0.73646549 | 0.72912675 | 0.00733874 |
| 4000 | 56.56565657 | 63.23922898 | 0.894471003 | 0.814465031 | 0.81021022 | 0.004254811 |
| 6000 | 84.84848485 | 77.45192136 | 1.095498773 | 0.863350909 | 0.8605258 | 0.002825109 |
| 8000 | 113.1313131 | 89.43377529 | 1.264973023 | 0.897059501 | 0.89503709 | 0.002022411 |
| 10000 | 141.4141414 | 99.99000052 | 1.414282835 | 0.921360563 | 0.91987749 | 0.001483073 |
added: The Wizard's use of this formula in Excel can also be checked
((NORMSINV(prob)*sd)/he)^2 where prob = the normsdist prob
The 1.5 million hands of JOB 9/6 should easily produce a very normal distribution I would think
here is for 90%
I would suggest to consider adding 345X odds to Craps.
I did this some time ago and remember those values had less than 1% error at very low number of trials
for example a quick sim
Craps pass line 345x odds
90% I show
sd: 4.91563184
ev: 7/495
=((NORMSINV(0.90)*sd)/ev)^2 = 198,448 rounded up
No. games played . = 198,448
Bankroll decreased . . = 90.010% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 9.990% of the time
here is for 345x odds at Craps pass line bet
| trials | ev | sd | ev/sd | normsdist prob | prob | error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 1.414141414 | 49.1563184 | 0.028768253 | 0.51147529 | 0.50950443 | 0.00197086 |
| 200 | 2.828282828 | 69.51753215 | 0.040684454 | 0.516226272 | 0.51482845 | 0.001397822 |
| 400 | 5.656565657 | 98.3126368 | 0.057536506 | 0.522941087 | 0.52195048 | 0.000990607 |
| 500 | 7.070707071 | 109.9168695 | 0.06432777 | 0.525645379 | 0.52475871 | 0.000886669 |
| 1000 | 14.14141414 | 155.4459275 | 0.090973204 | 0.536243059 | 0.53561426 | 0.000628799 |
| 2000 | 28.28282828 | 219.8337389 | 0.12865554 | 0.551184891 | 0.55073798 | 0.000446911 |
| 4000 | 56.56565657 | 310.891855 | 0.181946409 | 0.572187608 | 0.57186843 | 0.000319178 |
using the formula
trials,prob
653,917.0 0.99
509,645.0 0.98
427,421.0 0.97
370,331.0 0.96
326,910.0 0.95
198,448.0 0.90
of course the downside of these tables are the skewed betting by players.
One casino could have a Baccarat player that bets $500,000 per hand and wins $10 million on a weekend of play.
All the other players have an average bet of $200
This is easily how a casino can show a loss when the math says the probability of a loss over N bets is very small
But this is just my opinion as I am not an expert here
Sally
Well, that is like saying "Don't smoke, Don't chew...and Don't Go Out With Girls Who Do". Technically its very good advice but it sort of places a severe limit on one's social options. Avoid all booze is good advice, but I kind of really enjoy a fresh brewed beer or ale or even cider.Quote: teliotYes, the player should play 0 hands if the house has the edge.
So the advice to play "zero hands" is technically very good advice but it does put a crimp in my enjoyment of gambling and dreams of winning enough to own a casino.
Now you've thrown me a real "curved ball" with this comment about NsubZero refers to Lifetime Odds, not any one particular trip or year or whatever. I'll have to think about this
It must be like Breast Cancer where women are always hearing this 1 in 8 figure bandied about but that is a lifetime risk and all these women in their thirties and forties are in a panic about 1 in 8 when they have to be decades older before it applies to them.
I'll think about it for awhile but mean time I have to take my shoes off and tackle the math of Mustang Sally's post.
Quote: FleaStiffSo the advice to play "zero hands" is technically very good advice but it does put a crimp in my enjoyment of gambling and dreams of winning enough to own a casino.
any ratio of EV:SD should be viewed as an index of "gambling bang for your buck" (you are buying risk).. since you want to gamble you want to buy risk.. so the "play zero hands" advice doesn't apply, you are obviously getting some utility out of buying risk.
on the extreme ends of the spectrum..
(very high n0) 100x craps you are "paying" about $0.01 to risk $100
(very low n0) even money roulette you are "paying" about $5 to risk $100
(AP-DWFP) You are being paid about $0.01 to risk about $5. (u=+.0076, sigma=5.08, n0=450,000 hands).
Quote: AxelWolfThe problem is you seemed to be indicating that there is some SPECIAL way to beat Black Jack. You are also indicating since you are winning that splitting 88 and standing on 16 and what ever other crazy plays you might make, somehow proves that what you are doing must be the right way. You are suggesting anyone who believes in the REAL Math is foolish.
My question is for you. If what you are doing is working so well, why come ask about it? Just go do it.
What are you trying to understand? It was explained to you. Can you accept it was just luck? or do you believe it was skill gained from some system you have Mastered?
Well,....... Let me ask you ...What do You think? After all, isn't that all that matters anyway?
Borrowing a quote from a movie with Paul Newman called " COOL HAND LUKE" ..".I think what we have here is a failure to communicate."
First of all, you need to go back and read my question and get the facts straight. Secondly, we need to make a distinction between a suggestion and an indication. In my vocabulary there's a difference. Third, the "crazy plays" you're referring to, and crazy they may be,... you got wrong, I don't split 88's against dealer A's or 10's . You did get the not hitting 16 right. Now think about this, your interpretation is not necessarily my intention. For example, you said that I indicated that those two plays prove, its the right way. Wrong again! I never said, suggested , nor intended to indicate or imply that. In fact they're incidentally insignificant as far as I can tell. Again, your misinterpretation. OK Look, consider the possibility of winning " in spite of something " vs " because of something" ie. those crazy plays. Does that help clear things up a little?
OK, Where are we now,.. that brings us to.... Fourth, your first comment ! That blew me away! Let's try the If /Then thing for a minute .? " If" the "results of my method of play" , $12 K over 12 years, somehow indicates , in your words not mine, that it is Special, "then" how could you call that a problem? ( if I'm not misinterpreting your meaning.)
That brings us to Fifth, your question to me, " if what I'm doing etc...etc. why come ask about it... just go do it etc. Your misinterpretation again. I didn't ask about what I was doing I asked about the LONG RUN , and, I have been just going and doing it for 12+ years now. What is so hard to understand about that?
Ok , I think we're getting pretty close to the end here, but I want to try and cover all of your concerns as best I can.
Let's do it this way, Your question/ statement first and then my answer/ reply, ok?
#1. Q) What am trying to understand? A) What are you trying to understand?
#2. S) It was explained to me. R) Indeed! By 5 different people, With 5 different answers. Clear as mud! Which would you suggest that I pick.
#3.Q) Can I accept it was just luck? A) Yes ! Can you accept that it was not, if it was not.
#4. Q) Do I believe it was skill gained from a system I have mastered ? (Paraphrased) A) I believe it is what it is. What do you believe? Isn't that what matters in the "long Run" ?
One more thing I almost overlooked.
#5. S) You are suggesting anyone who believes in the real math is foolish. R) Not at all, I said emphatically that I was amazed at Mike the Wizard's awesome math skills and that I'm bad, really bad at math. I do ,however believe that real math is a tool and can be misapplied or more effectively applied in some cases by different mathematicians just like a carpenter who builds a shack vs one who builds a mansion. The word Foolish was never used suggested or implied. Those are your words/ interpretations not mine. I do believe in reverse engineering, but I don't know if it works with mathematical equations especially in this situation .
Quote: cwwbjrWell,.. I want to try and cover all of your concerns as best I can.
...
#1. Q) What am trying to understand? A) What are you trying to understand?
...
#4. Q) Do I believe it was skill gained from a system I have mastered ? (Paraphrased) A) I believe it is what it is. What do you believe? Isn't that what matters in the "long Run" ?
...
I do believe in reverse engineering, but I don't know if it works with mathematical equations especially in this situation .
Umm...
Quote: JoePloppyUmm...
Umm Hmmm ! Congratulations! Go to the head of the class!
Quote: JoePloppyUmm...
Clearly he is speaking in some sort of code. I have not yet deciphered the whole thing but I'm pretty sure that "ahead $12,000" translates to "down $12,000".
Quote: mustangsallyVery Nice
This is a new math exercise that sounds fun especially for Video Poker.
Care to show how you accomplished the JOB VP values?
Thank you. Nice work yourself.
Here is how I found the hands required to be profitable for 6/5 Jacks or Better at a confidence level of 99%. I noted that aside from the royals, this game has a house edge of 0.069906336 and a standard deviation of 1.7751246.
Then I considered the probability of getting 0 to 18 royals for 58,235 hands played. It was then a matter of using the normal approximation to get a probability of the casino being ahead for each number of royals. The "exp win" is the expected win, not counting the loss due to royals. Then take the dot product. It was trial and error to get the total probability, in the lower right corner, to equal 99%. Fortunately, Excel has a "goal seek" feature that can do such tedious trial and error work in a second. How people got by before spreadsheets, I have no idea.
| Royals | Pr(royals) | royal loss | exp win | Z | Prob(net win) | Prob(combined) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.234651957338012 | 0 | 4071 | 9.5 | 1 | 0.234652 |
| 1 | 0.340163654680353 | -800 | 4071 | 7.64 | 1 | 0.340164 |
| 2 | 0.246559443352127 | -1600 | 4071 | 5.77 | 1 | 0.246559 |
| 3 | 0.119141788116146 | -2400 | 4071 | 3.9 | 0.999952 | 0.119136 |
| 4 | 0.0431785297366613 | -3200 | 4071 | 2.03 | 0.978987 | 0.042271 |
| 5 | 0.0125187674934154 | -4000 | 4071 | 0.17 | 0.565817 | 0.007083 |
| 6 | 0.0030246425038478 | -4800 | 4071 | -1.7 | 0.044396 | 0.000134 |
| 7 | 0.000626382676881701 | -5600 | 4071 | -3.57 | 0.000179 | 0 |
| 8 | 0.00011350460433706 | -6400 | 4071 | -5.44 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 1.82824627552658E-05 | -7200 | 4071 | -7.3 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 2.65032067831008E-06 | -8000 | 4071 | -9.17 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 3.49276581304165E-07 | -8800 | 4071 | -11.04 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 4.21941215046486E-08 | -9600 | 4071 | -12.91 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 4.70513755444886E-09 | -10400 | 4071 | -14.77 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 4.87200826660175E-10 | -11200 | 4071 | -16.64 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 4.70847734491829E-11 | -12000 | 4071 | -18.51 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 4.26603319176638E-12 | -12800 | 4071 | -20.38 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 3.63780182450884E-13 | -13600 | 4071 | -22.24 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 2.92974794970082E-14 | -14400 | 4071 | -24.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0.9900000 |
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThey don't even exist at M-Life casinos.
6 decks games there don't allow re-splitting of aces (they do allow surrender though)
The double deck games have the same rules, except, no surrender. This results in a lower edge than the 6-deck, although I consider both to be very good games.
I was actually wondering about RSA. I honestly couldn't remember if they allowed it as it doesn't require a strategy change; although of course it does change the HE off the top.
Quote: WizardThe following places have the "Liberal Strip rules":
Aria, Bellagio, Caesars, Cosmo, Encore/Wynn, Green Valley Ranch, M, Mandalay, MGM, Mirage, NYNY, Palazzo/Venetian, Palms, TI, Tropicana.
Again, this is defined as:
6 decks
Stand on soft 17
Double after split, surrender and re-splitting aces all allowed.
Wow, I had no idea you could get these rules at Cosmo, Wynncore, Velazzo, TI or Tropicana! If that is indeed true, it must be high limit rooms only. Otherwise I think your survey may be out of date.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI was actually wondering about RSA. I honestly couldn't remember if they allowed it as it doesn't require a strategy change; although of course it does change the HE off the top.
I'm now wondering if I'm correct. I thought that it definitely wasn't allowed, but now I'm not so sure. I know for sure that it is not allowed in their DD games, and I may have confused them. It comes up so rarely that it's hard to remember (and I have played more DD than 6D)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceClearly he is speaking in some sort of code. I have not yet deciphered the whole thing but I'm pretty sure that "ahead $12,000" translates to "down $12,000".
And I'm thinking you probably never will. But, let's look on the bright side.
In your world, your translation would be pretty accurate, would be my guess.
Pure Genius!
Could a moderator please do something about this troll. Thanks.Quote: cwwbjrAnd I'm thinking you probably never will. But, let's look on the bright side.
In your world, your translation would be pretty accurate, would be my guess.
Pure Genius!
Perhaps. We all have selective memories and many of us do opt to accept the free drinks which can hamper accurate record keeping.Quote: onenickelmiracleI still believe most people running lucky like this and playing infrequently are lumping non BJ wins like new member sign-ups, etc., into their records but not mentioning it.
Quote: teliotCould a moderator please do something about this troll.
Both you guys (you and cwwbjr) are on temporary time-out, pending sentencing.
Remember, all forum members are protected from personal insults. I recommend making complaints about other members by PM to an admin.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI'm now wondering if I'm correct. I thought that it definitely wasn't allowed, but now I'm not so sure. I know for sure that it is not allowed in their DD games, and I may have confused them. It comes up so rarely that it's hard to remember (and I have played more DD than 6D)
The 6 deck games with a 0.28% house edge allow RSA.
Quote: cwwbjrAnd I'm thinking you probably never will. But, let's look on the bright side.
In your world, your translation would be pretty accurate, would be my guess.
Pure Genius!
cwwbjr is warned for generally being argumentative, disruptive, and generally kicking up a &#$% storm over nothing. We just don't roll that way over here. I hope you found the answer you are looking for here. Either way, please lower the temperature of your posts.
Quote: teliotCould a moderator please do something about this troll. Thanks.
Remember the rules -- No personal insults. You're welcome.
Quote: 1BBThe 6 deck games with a 0.28% house edge allow RSA.
I think that this has actually never once come up for me. If it has, I don't remember.
I see you changed your post.Quote: chrisr(AP-DWFP) You are being paid about $0.01 to risk about $5. (u=+.0076, sigma=5.08, n0=450,000 hands).
You at first had the 84% chance of showing a profit after I think 450,000 hands played.
Maybe you had thoughts that that was not enough hands to be close to a normal distribution.
IMO, If there was a bankroll that could be ruined then yes the values would be skewed but as seen in my simulation,
I used a bankroll high enough so no chance of Ruin
I played 447,000 hands per session (22350/.05)
we get very close to 84.1% for showing a profit just from the game, no comps included.
I think it looks good
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyI see you changed your post.
You at first had the 84% chance of showing a profit after I think 450,000 hands played.
Maybe you had thoughts that that was not enough hands to be close to a normal distribution.
i have a pretty good sense about when clt approximations are good. I just changed the post to be more to the point.
Quote: WizardBoth you guys (you and cwwbjr) are on temporary time-out, pending sentencing.
Remember, all forum members are protected from personal insults. I recommend making complaints about other members by PM to an admin.
Acknowledged
Quote: cwwbjrAcknowledged
Question for WIZARD.. When calculating the BS for hitting 16, are the small card combination totals included or excluded ? For example, excluding dealer BJ the possibilities of the player busting on 16 would be 8/5 , the K Q J 10 9 8 7 6 would bust and the A 2 3 4 5 would not , but the dealer's hand showing 7-10 up card would first have odds of being pat or not. After flipping the hole card , the dealer is pat and game over, or not pat and draws to H/S 17 with respective odds of bust. Do your BS calculations take into consideration that while you can beat a dealer's say pat 19 by hitting a 16 and drawing a hard 4 , 5 or 6 ,.. you could also theoretically draw a small card combination totaling 4, 5, or 6 that would beat dealer 19 but it's not something you would do in real life.
I'm wondering what BS really stood for in this situation.Quote: cwwbjrQuestion for WIZARD.. Do your BS calculations.
Are BBB and Mission on vacation or something? I thought for sure we were going to see some red.Quote: WizardTwo public warnings to give out.
cwwbjr is warned for generally being argumentative, disruptive, and generally kicking up a &#$% storm over nothing. We just don't roll that way over here. I hope you found the answer you are looking for here. Either way, please lower the temperature of your posts.
Remember the rules -- No personal insults. You're welcome.
Quote: cwwbjrQuestion for WIZARD.. When calculating the BS for hitting 16, are the small card combination totals included or excluded ? For example, excluding dealer BJ the possibilities of the player busting on 16 would be 8/5 , the K Q J 10 9 8 7 6 would bust and the A 2 3 4 5 would not , but the dealer's hand showing 7-10 up card would first have odds of being pat or not. After flipping the hole card , the dealer is pat and game over, or not pat and draws to H/S 17 with respective odds of bust. Do your BS calculations take into consideration that while you can beat a dealer's say pat 19 by hitting a 16 and drawing a hard 4 , 5 or 6 ,.. you could also theoretically draw a small card combination totaling 4, 5, or 6 that would beat dealer 19 but it's not something you would do in real life.
Of course it doesn't count plays that you would not make.
Just so you know, while 16 v 10 is a close play (so standing here doesn't hurt you too much), 16 v 7, for example, is not a close play. Standing is terrible. You actually have a decent chance of winning the hand.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceOf course it doesn't count plays that you would not make.
Just so you know, while 16 v 10 is a close play (so standing here doesn't hurt you too much), 16 v 7, for example, is not a close play. Standing is terrible. You actually have a decent chance of winning the hand.
Wrong. Hitting or standing on a 16 is a personal choice. Just ask anybody. The Wicked Witch's army--were they ploppies? Oh we oh...or maybe ewoks were ploppies?
