[IDEA] +EV (Positive Expected Value) P2P Raffle Games (I need reviewers/revisors).

Greetings!

I'm a big fan of Raffle games available out there.

I've got an hypothetical idea that seems to turn that game +EV (positive expected value) or, at least, 0EV (neutral expected value) for gamblers to play.

SUMMARY

House tickets, additional rounds (for the same game), progressive jackpots, jackpot roll overs = +EV (Positive Expected Value) Peer-to-Peer Raffle Games.

FEATURES

I've been thinking of a new "generation" prototype of raffle games in order to achieve some interesting and innovative features:

a) Limited tickets: players get better winning odds and probabilities;

b) Progressive jackpots: "house tickets" "win" the game (some times) and roll over all the current jackpot to fill next round or game. The following game (or round) becomes +EV for gamblers to play. So more gamblers will come for next round (bigger pots). P.s.: House's Tickets never add funds to jackpot, they are worthless, their only remaining purpose is to roll over the current pot to next round's jackpot. House does not profit from jackpot when its tickets are chosen;

c) Jackpot rolls over: raffle creator might set series ("championships"?) of raffles so when one game ends a % of that jackpot from last round rolls over to 1st round of next game;

d) Additional funds: an option to add manually some funds to 1st round jackpot would be interesting too (1st round starts +EV for all gamblers).

And more:

* Always a Winner at the end of last round;

* Transparent and Cheat Proof;

* Verifiable draws;

* etc.

CALCULATIONS

Here goes some calculations/simulations from that conceptual idea:



Notes from that simulation:

* 3 games (4 rounds each), 3 different entry ticket prices ($.01 / $.05 and $.1 );

* Payout - 85% of jackpot: to prevent someone from attempting to buy all the tickets;

* 15% roll over: to ensure that the next game starts with some value on pot;

* 4 rounds: 4th round without house tickets.

P.s. Winning/Losing Probabilities; EV (expected value) and Edge (EV/Bet) => Gambler's perspective.

ADVANTAGES

House: by implementing that idea, the House gets some interesting profits from fees (when there's some relevant scalability), some explosion of new visitors (potential gamblers and advertisers) and the 1st P2P +EV raffle game ever!

Gamblers: +EV Games to play/gamble, bigger pots to win, profitable on the long run.

CONCLUSION

* House tickets = roll the pot to next round or game's jackpot;

* Additional rounds (for the same game) = pot starts greater than the total amount wagered at that same round due to the previous round roll over;

* Progressive jackpots = every round;

* Jackpot roll overs = every time a house ticket is chosen

"Altogether" = +EV (Positive Expected Value) Peer-to-Peer Raffle Games.

P.s.: The House does not win any prize when its tickets are chosen by the system. Its role is like a dealer on poker. Players put the money in, not the House. The House only profits the fees from 2nd round and foward. 1st round winners (gamblers) are free from charge/fees (house edge). In fact, the House's role here is such similar to that of Casino's poker games. We got a P2P game where the House is just an ordinary dealer, not a player itself.

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What do you think about it?

Did you comprehend the idea?

Would that possibly work?

Are there any flaws, issues or problems I did not figure out yet?

Collaborations are appreciated (specially from math and statistics experts!)...

Quote:

(1st round starts +EV for all gamblers)

If it's +EV for all players from the top, who is going to pay for all the lights ?


I have a better idea: Make a raffle with unlimited but cheap tickets. Give the prices to the highest ranking tickets sold, and sell tickets in the order of increasing ranks.
The perceived EV for each next ticket available is heavily +EV for each gambler, but of course it isn't.

Quote: MangoJ

If it's +EV for all players from the top, who is going to pay for all the lights ?


I have a better idea: Make a raffle with unlimited but cheap tickets. Give the prices to the highest ranking tickets sold, and sell tickets in the order of increasing ranks.
The perceived EV for each next ticket available is heavily +EV for each gambler, but of course it isn't.

Apparently, It seems to be a little paradox.

In fact, previous players from previous rounds pay for players that get into the game later (at subsequent rounds, when the jackpot is greater).

As an analogy, in poker the less skilled player pays the lunch so the sharks can eat.

Here we must have some unlucky counterparty as well... (and it's not the House)

P.s.: I don't want unlimited tickets because I want to avoid it becoming a traditional lottery with not so attracting winning odds for gamblers. There must be a winner at (at least) final round, always...