The Largest Advantage
In terms of games, I don't think they realized what they were doing, but 2 julys ago the same casino ran 3 overlapping BJ promos: suited BJs for drawing entries, 2:1 BJs during sunday baseball games, and BJ bingo with relatively achievable and very generous freeplay prizes (spaces for each suited BJ, 5 card charlie, 6 card charlie, 777, 678, etc.)
I was there at 4:15am on weeknight playing blackjack by myself with about 10 other people in the whole place playing slots. I notice that the progressive was at $49,550. It goes up by the amount played and the time elapsed. In this case it seemed to be going up by about a cent per $20 players. I decided to ride it out--- I mean it is going to hit before noon.
I played a penny machine pretty rapidly because each pull gives you a shot (any pull=same chance I was told). So I was playing one cent rapidly on two machines. Dropped about $50. I think it was massively EV+.
Guy on a nickel bank two rows over hit it at 5:30am for $49,6xx. I was too disgusted to stay and watch after he nailed it.
Did you use cover play at all? Or did you play with the full 90%+?Quote: RogerKintYesterday, I got to play with a Mississippi Stud dealer consistently flashing the river. SCORE!
Quote: RogerKintYesterday, I got to play with a Mississippi Stud dealer consistently flashing the river. SCORE! Unfortunately, my girlfriend is now addicted to this game (flashing dealer or not) and I have to drag her away from it.
You lucky bastard :)
How do they manage to flash the river? Is it the bottom card? At most places the bottom card is the first card flipped.
Quote: teliotDid you use cover play at all? Or did you play with the full 90%+?
No cover. The dealer didn't last long at the table. Situations where cover would be needed were rare.
if anyone know if i played it wrong please let me know
Quote: strictlyAPbeat me to it by one post, i found a dollar denom ultimate x poker with12x on every line and got dealt 222ak, for a royal on a dueces wild machine which paid if i recal right, 12,000 im still not sure i played it right but it was hard to turn down 12k,
if anyone know if i played it wrong please let me know
You played it right, 222 is barely less than 14 for 1 on a 20/12/10/4/4/3/2/1 machine (guessing on the machine payout...97.58% base pay), while the wild royal is obv worth 20 for 1.
Holding a wild royal of 2KQJT is much closer, but still correct. 20 for 1 for Wild Royal vs. 19.15 for 1 with KQJT suited.
On machines that pay less than 15 for 1 for five of a kind, then it's generally better to hold just 222 vs. a five of a kind. But you always hold a wild Royal when it pays 20 for 1 or more.
Quote: mwalz9What are these Ultimate X machines you speak of?
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/ultimate-x/
It's a game where one makes an extra 5-credit bonus wager per hand (for a total wager of 10 credits per hand) for multipliers to be applied on the next deal. Sometimes impatient/foolish players quit their game while they have multipliers available to them for the next hand. When this occurs, the very next player can play these mulitipliers for only 5 credits per hand, which can create a huge advantage.
Quote: tringlomane
It's a game where one makes an extra 5-credit bonus wager per hand (for a total wager of 10 credits per hand) for multipliers to be applied on the next deal. Sometimes impatient/foolish players quit their game while they have multipliers available to them for the next hand. When this occurs, the very next player can play these mulitipliers for only 5 credits per hand, which can create a huge advantage.
The correct conventional strategy depends on so many factors -- many times, you bet one coin per line to max the average X per lined played, respectively. For example, on a 10-play machine that has X's to the first 4 lines, then you should bet one coin up to line 4 due to game structure, respectively.
5 coin bets on all the lines are rare based on my experience -- max coin bets may max the absolute EV in dollars, but single coin bets generallly max the EV on a percentage basis.
Quote: strictlyAPbeat me to it by one post, i found a dollar denom ultimate x poker with12x on every line and got dealt 222ak, for a royal on a dueces wild machine which paid if i recal right, 12,000 im still not sure i played it right but it was hard to turn down 12k,
if anyone know if i played it wrong please let me know
The correct answer depends on your wealth function -- one way to solve this non-linear problem is to set it up as an insurance equation i.e. the amount of insurance payment such that you will be indifferent in the event you hit or didn't hit the four ducks.
The general rule is a bird in hand is worth two in the bush -- $12K of cash is worth about $24K in EV.
Quote: Ardent1The correct conventional strategy depends on so many factors -- many times, you bet one coin per line to max the average X per lined played, respectively. For example, on a 10-play machine that has X's to the first 4 lines, then you should bet one coin up to line 4 due to game structure, respectively.
5 coin bets on all the lines are rare based on my experience -- max coin bets may max the absolute EV in dollars, but single coin bets generallly max the EV on a percentage basis.
What you are arguing can max out your return on a %age basis in a lot of cases, but in the example described, one would be an idiot not to bet max since every hand was a 12X multiplier. At some point the average multiplier has to be high enough to justify the max bet, what that point is...I really don't know. Ultimate X has horrible paytables in my area/$1.50 a hand minimum, so I have rarely played the game, and I have never noticed multipliers left in a machine. I have rarely looked for them either though.
Quote: sodawaterI once played a craps game where the dealers were not aware that come bets had to be moved to point numbers. So they would pay on the 7 and 11 and take on the 2, 3, or 12 and if a point came they'd ignore the bet. That's 200% right there.
How long did that last? How much were you betting on the come per roll? How much did you make? Were you tipping the dealers after each come win? Frankly, I find this one hard to believe.....
Quote: sodawaterI once played a craps game where the dealers were not aware that come bets had to be moved to point numbers. So they would pay on the 7 and 11 and take on the 2, 3, or 12 and if a point came they'd ignore the bet. That's 200% right there.
The edge is 33% per resolution; 11% per roll.
Still crazy though. How much did you win before they noticed?
Quote: tringlomane...one would be an idiot not to bet max since every hand was a 12X multiplier. At some point the average multiplier has to be high enough to justify the max bet, what that point is...I really don't know. Ultimate X has horrible paytables in my area/$1.50 a hand minimum, so I have rarely played the game, and I have never noticed multipliers left in a machine. I have rarely looked for them either though.
tringlomane, you already stated you don't "really" play the game. The people that sweep for the "X's" are about the same people that look for bottle and cans to redeem. In strictlyAP's example, it was a $1 machine and it was ten-play meaning the 5-coin bet would be $50.
Here's my point, the typical person who sweeps these "X's" may not be an idiot, he may not have the $50 to blow on a once-one-a-lifetime-opportunity and if he walks away to find a sponsor, the opportunity may be gone since all those 12X are lit.
Quote: Ardent1tringlomane, you already stated you don't "really" play the game. The people that sweep for the "X's" are about the same people that look for bottle and cans to redeem. In strictlyAP's example, it was a $1 machine and it was ten-play meaning the 5-coin bet would be $50.
Here's my point, the typical person who sweeps these "X's" may not be an idiot, he may not have the $50 to blow on a once-one-a-lifetime-opportunity and if he walks away to find a sponsor, the opportunity may be gone since all those 12X are lit.
I never said looking for machines with multipliers on them was a bad idea. I understand how the game works because I am a video poker addict, but I'm never playing it generally because my jurisdiction offers machines that are ~97% or less. Personally, I have never noted a machine with available multipliers, but if I would ever notice one, hell yeah I'm playing it off! And okay, if someone is too poor to afford the $50 bet, then sure, he should bet the most he can afford, but betting max is simply the best play here! And if I am cashless at that exact moment, but have enough money in a bank account, I gladly pay the ATM fee on a withdrawal here since there is 12X multiplier for a $50 wager staring me in the face! If the place is packed, maybe I just immediately gamble what is in my wallet, but if it's a weekday, I'm definitely running to an ATM and gambling on it still being there.
Quote: MoosetonReally? I always considered having even just one 2X multiplier enough to overcome the HA even on a ten play. Correct me if I'm wrong, I don't do this often.
Ardent will try to correct you, but you aren't wrong. As long as you can afford it, a max bet is worth it in some cases since you will maximize the amount you win on the deal in question. He has made an argument that it's a lower advantage percentage by placing a max bet, but who cares about that? For example, if you have a 580% advantage on a $4 wager, or a 530% advantage on a $50 wager, which one are you taking?
Now in the case of the single 2X wager, maybe it's not in your best interest to play all of the hands. And now I am wondering if Ardent is right in his argument, can you play the bottom 8 hands at 5 credits each and ignore the top 2 hands for example? For a dealt winner though, you should ideally be making the max bet since every hand has a multiplier.
All this arguing is going to make me hunt for X's now...
Quote: tringlomaneI never said looking for machines with multipliers on them was a bad idea. I understand how the game works because I am a video poker addict, but I'm never playing it generally because my jurisdiction offers machines that are ~97% or less. Personally, I have never noted a machine with available multipliers, but if I would ever notice one, hell yeah I'm playing it off! And okay, if someone is too poor to afford the $50 bet, then sure, he should bet the most he can afford, but betting max is simply the best play here! And if I am cashless at that exact moment, but have enough money in a bank account, I gladly pay the ATM fee on a withdrawal here since there is 12X multiplier for a $50 wager staring me in the face! If the place is packed, maybe I just immediately gamble what is in my wallet, but if it's a weekday, I'm definitely running to an ATM and gambling on it still being there.
tringlomane, I think you are just being argumentative and being more noise than signal.
Quote: tringlomaneArdent will try to correct you, but you aren't wrong. As long as you can afford it, a max bet is worth it in some cases since you will maximize the amount you win on the deal in question. He has made an argument that it's a lower advantage percentage by placing a max bet, but who cares about that? For example, if you have a 580% advantage on a $4 wager, or a 530% advantage on a $50 wager, which one are you taking?
Now in the case of the single 2X wager, maybe it's not in your best interest to play all of the hands. And now I am wondering if Ardent is right in his argument, can you play the bottom 8 hands at 5 credits each and ignore the top 2 hands for example? For a dealt winner though, you should ideally be making the max bet since every hand has a multiplier.
All this arguing is going to make me hunt for X's now...
tringlomane, please do me a favor, IF YOU ARE GOING TO QUOTE ME, please quote me correctly! Here's what I wrote and I will stand by it: "The correct conventional strategy depends on so many factors." Please DO NOT PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH -- it's just rude.
In a nutshell, since there are some many different X's, you need to generate different strategies. You may not have the same X's on each line, you may not have X's on all the lines --- this is simply high power math (way beyond my limited math skills). Where is the 2X -- it it on the first line or the tenth line -- 2X on the first line IS NOT THE SAME as 2X on the tenth line!!
When in doubt, read what the wizard had to say: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/ultimate-x/ The wizard's recommendation is: "A huge advantage can be had if you find a game abandoned with multipliers! If you see this, play one hand at five coins per line, and then cut and run. Likewise, never leave a game with multipliers on it. Either wait for a losing hand on all lines, or bet five credits per line on your last hand. Don't risk abandoning a game with a multiplier by making a max coin bet with the last of your money. You never want to have to leave a game with a multiplier because you don't have enough money to make another bet."
All my two cents was that an AP (for the most part) could either max his EV on a $ basis or on a % basis -- and in those EXTREMELY rare cases of all the lines being multiplied like 12X and if you have the money, bet 5 coins per line!
Btw, I am going to try hard not to LMAO when tringlomane finds out the hard way he don't fully understand how the game works yet he wants to mouth off on a public forum!!!
Quote: MoosetonReally? I always considered having even just one 2X multiplier enough to overcome the HA even on a ten play. Correct me if I'm wrong, I don't do this often.
You started this thread asking about the largest advantage -- most people think of the largest advantage in percentage terms. Yes, some people will brag in absolute dollars when they make tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars.
So I will do the incorrect thing by asking you a question in response -- what is more important to you when you have overcome the HA? -- the $ EV or %-age EV?
Quote: Ardent1You started this thread asking about the largest advantage -- most people think of the largest advantage in percentage terms. Yes, some people will brag in absolute dollars when they make tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars.
So I will do the incorrect thing by asking you a question in response -- what is more important to you when you have overcome the HA? -- the $ EV or %-age EV?
$EV > EV%
But just for this thread's sake, I was interested in EV%.
Quote: joethomas135At the Bicycle Club in California they have a progressive jackpot in three card poker for a royal flush. It begins at 1500 and the fools get nearly orgasmic when it gets up to five grand. Somewhere recently on these Wizard cites I believe I read that the straight flush in five is over 600000 to one, and in six somewhere between two and three hundred k to one. If we used a low ball 200k to one, then the player is being underpaid from true odds by a multiple of 40 when it gets up to 5k. When it begins at 1500 I am guessing that the return on that buck investment is less than one penny. Can I get genius conformation on that please?
Do you mean between the player and the dealer? It's one hand in 108290, so slightly more than a penny at 1500.
If, however, you mean AKQ suited, it's one in 5525 - I'm guessing that's it, since otherwise unless the house cut were over 90%, it would have to get well into the tens of thousands regularly.
Quote: MoosetonJust curious, what was the largest advantage you or anybody has ever had in any casino game that you've heard of? No cheating.
I once found a programming error in one game at an on-line casino where I could make my bets in a specific way to exploit this programming error, which resulted in having a 40% chance of winning $300 and 60% chance of losing $1 on each outcome, so if I calculate my edge relative to risking only $1 on each outcome (the actual bet was higher than this but due to the programming error I could only lose $1), the edge was ~11940%. I don't know if you consider exploiting a malfunctioning game as cheating though.
Quote: Jufo81I once found a programming error in one game at an on-line casino where I could make my bets in a specific way to exploit this programming error, which resulted in having a 40% chance of winning $300 and 60% chance of losing $1 on each outcome, so if I calculate my edge relative to risking only $1 on each outcome (the actual bet was higher than this but due to the programming error I could only lose $1), the edge was ~11940%. I don't know if you consider exploiting a malfunctioning game as cheating though.
More info! Did you milk the cow, or kill the cow? How much did you make from this error? Did you ever actually get paid? How did they find out? How did you find out about this 'specific way'?
Quote: SOOPOOMore info!
I can give you some details but I can't divulge into full details on a public forum.
But anyway, I think you win the prize for playing with the greatest advantage!
Quote: SOOPOOWow! I would think hat someone withdrawing 900 Euros a day, every day, for months, would be quite a red flag for an online casino! And I don't think it would be too hard for them to notice that all your winnings came from one game, and that you were able to beat that game every single day.
But anyway, I think you win the prize for playing with the greatest advantage!
What worked in my favour was that I already had a history with the casino so I had withdrawn 500-900 euros several times even before finding the error. So my behaviour after finding the error was not completely different (only that this time I couldn't lose).
As for the largest advantage %-wise, it's possible to have infinite advantage if you earn money by not making a wager. I once found a slot maching where someone had left $5 into it, which I cashed out, so that's infinite advantage %-wise right there.
Quote: Jufo81the edge was ~11940%.
I think we have a winner! But no, finding money left in a game doesn't count. I used to say that the easiest way to make money in a casino was to go to change machines and pick up the leftovers(i.e. in the tray or on the floor). But I now disagree with that statement.
