Good losing streak story
Quote: WizardA teenage cricket player incorrectly called the coin toss in 35 straight games. The odds of going that many or more are 1 in 2^35, or 1 in 34,359,738,368. Here is a link to an article about it. I hope the Martingale players on this board will read it.
Hmmm...of course she finally got it right. the odds were 68,719,476,735:68,719,476,736 that she'd get that one right:-P
My favorite part is the "senior lecturer in mathematics" who says Its even bigger than that; the calculator doesnt have room for all the figures. Id have to do it on a computer. Yep, 2^35th is a big number. It's too bad that there are no computers in schools in Australia.
Quote: rdw4potusMy favorite part is the "senior lecturer in mathematics" who says Its even bigger than that; the calculator doesnt have room for all the figures. Id have to do it on a computer. Yep, 2^35th is a big number. It's too bad that there are no computers in schools in Australia.
Very funny! I thought of that too. That professor must have a cheap $2 calculator. My 25-year old HP 15-C can go up to 9.9999 *10^99, or 332 losing flips.
Quote: WizardA teenage cricket player incorrectly called the coin toss in 35 straight games. The odds of going that many or more are 1 in 2^35, or 1 in 34,359,738,368. Here is a link to an article about it. I hope the Martingale players on this board will read it.
The real question is, why did her teammates let her keep calling the coin toss after twenty or so losses?
35 prior games plus this one game is 36... pretty darn close to a roulette wheel but here I guess it would simply be betting on Red or Black without having any green at all. Just a succession of 35 wrong calls. Well, I guess that would exhaust anyone's bank roll even if they were at a fifty cent roulette table somewhere. "Double Up to Catch Up" exhortations from Mr. Martingale would have long since exhausted my bankroll and the casino's table-limits. I sure would like to have a 35 in a row WINNING streak at the roulette wheel though.
Still. Its a fun article and the girls in the photograph all look happy.
Quote: WizardA teenage cricket player incorrectly called the coin toss in 35 straight games. The odds of going that many or more are 1 in 2^35, or 1 in 34,359,738,368. Here is a link to an article about it. I hope the Martingale players on this board will read it.
I'd say it's reasonable to expect she'll get the next 35 tosses correct, wouldn't you? After all, this stuff balances out. The math says so.
You'd think that, but saying it that way, sounds bigger.Quote: SOOPOOMy favorite part of the article was the 'one in 35,000 million' line. I would think that the word 'billion' is well known enough to be used by the mainstream media.
262144 x 262144 = 52428800000 + 15728640000 + 524288000 + 26214400 + 10485760 + 1048576 = 68719476736
Divide by two to get 34359738368.
Well, I'm way out of date on this sort of thing: how much of the "British Empire" still considers "billion" to mean 10^12? I think maybe "milliard" was/is the term for 10^9 in that portion of the world, but that may be a bit of an ancient concept now. And I don't know about the usage in Australia, now or before.Quote: SOOPOOMy favorite part of the article was the 'one in 35,000 million' line. I would think that the word 'billion' is well known enough to be used by the mainstream media.
Quote: boymimboWhy can't one use a piece of paper and multiply it on paper...
Of course it sounds simple to you and me. However, I'd wager to say that if you asked a sample of American high school graduates what is the probability at hand here, less than 10% could produce the correct answer. College graduates, less than 25%. I wonder what those percentages would be in China, but I'd wager to say, a lot higher.
Quote: DocWell, I'm way out of date on this sort of thing: how much of the "British Empire" still considers "billion" to mean 10^12? I think maybe "milliard" was/is the term for 10^9 in that portion of the world, but that may be a bit of an ancient concept now. And I don't know about the usage in Australia, now or before.
Check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales
Quote: WizardOf course it sounds simple to you and me. However, I'd wager to say that if you asked a sample of American high school graduates what is the probability at hand here, less than 10% could produce the correct answer. College graduates, less than 25%. I wonder what those percentages would be in China, but I'd wager to say, a lot higher.
Naah. In China, they'd have to use a REALLY BIG abacus. (And the girl who called the coin toss wrong would have been arrested and sent to prison after the 20th wrong guess.)
As far as math proficiency goes, I would actually put the number of high school STUDENTS who could solve this problem at more like 20-25%. I have a LOT of proto-nerds in my classes who can factor a polynomial equation at the drop of a hat, or hack into the mainframe computer at Wells Fargo and change everyone's bank balance to $0.01. However, they can't parse a sentence, or articulate a coherent thought. Verbal communication is SO twentieth century.
Quote: WizardWe'll have to find an average high school student and bet on that when you're in town. I don't deny you have 20-25% nerds in your school, but I don't think that reflects the national average. Even my own Los Alamitos High School (yeah!), among the best public high schools in southern California, didn't have a percentage that high, and that includes me as one of the nerds.
Aren't you a bit old to still go to high school? :)
Ah, yes. Just proving how out dated I am. According to the article, the official British (and Australian) change in usage (now matching the U.S.) was in 1974 -- guess I'm only 36 years out of touch. Thanks much for the clarification/education, matilda.Quote: matildaCheck out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scalesQuote: DocWell, I'm way out of date on this sort of thing: how much of the "British Empire" still considers "billion" to mean 10^12? I think maybe "milliard" was/is the term for 10^9 in that portion of the world, but that may be a bit of an ancient concept now. And I don't know about the usage in Australia, now or before.
I thought the interesting point in the article (if the statement there is even correct) is that France made an official change in usage in the opposite direction in 1961. Can that be? Is this just an example showing that the British and French can never agree on anything, even if they have to swap sides of a disagreement? Limeys and Frogs forever, I suppose.
Quote: WizardWe'll have to find an average high school student and bet on that when you're in town. I don't deny you have 20-25% nerds in your school, but I don't think that reflects the national average. Even my own Los Alamitos High School (yeah!), among the best public high schools in southern California, didn't have a percentage that high, and that includes me as one of the nerds.
1. I don't think you have to be a nerd to be able to calculate 2 to the xth power; you just have to have been awake during seventh grade math classes.
2. How do you know the nerd percentage at Los Alamitos? Did they have to register themselves or something?
3. Re the bet...hmmm...would you accept it as a "positive" if a student told you (correctly) how to calculate that exponent, or would you want to sit him down with a pencil and paper and make him give you the correct answer? The latter method would be more rigorous, as it would be fairly easy to make a calculation error.
When I dealt in Reno, my running joke was that kids there learned to count like this: "Ace, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, Jack, Queen, King, fourteen, fifteen..." Maybe Vegas kids are better at computation than the rest of the country, because their dads are always bringing home parlay cards?
