EdCollins
EdCollins
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
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December 28th, 2020 at 4:48:20 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

...Also a fan of Stratego, great two player strategy game.



Ah, Stratego.

For many, many years, I operated the #1 Stratego site on the internet, until Jumbo asked me to take it down. Fortunately, you can still see some of it, courtesy of the Wayback Machine:

https://web.archive.org/web/20191022014209/http://web.archive.org/web/20120806041322/http:/www.edcollins.com/stratego/
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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December 28th, 2020 at 5:37:45 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Ah, Stratego.

For many, many years, I operated the #1 Stratego site on the internet, until Jumbo asked me to take it down.



Cool!

One way they messed up Stratego was when they labeled the scouts as #1 instead of #9. I think they changed it back.
Gandler
Gandler
Joined: Jan 27, 2014
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December 28th, 2020 at 5:39:02 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Ah, Stratego.

For many, many years, I operated the #1 Stratego site on the internet, until Jumbo asked me to take it down. Fortunately, you can still see some of it, courtesy of the Wayback Machine:

https://web.archive.org/web/20191022014209/http://web.archive.org/web/20120806041322/http:/www.edcollins.com/stratego/



That looks like a great site (love the homepage setup). Sadly most of the links to your pages seem dead (I am not familiar with the way back machine so I can just be doing something wrong).

I was quite interested in your rules variation page. I grew up with my parents board (from the early 1970s I think), I have played "newer" (maybe not "new" any more) versions in other settings and the rules seemed a bit different (well not hugely different, but enough to impact play I think, its been a couple years since I played at all to be honest, but I recall being alarmed by some changes).

I have always been a fan of capture the flag (both in video games and in real life), so I was a huge fan when I realized that this was basically a board game version of capture the flag as a kid.
Mission146
Mission146
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December 29th, 2020 at 7:30:06 AM permalink
Quote: Gandler



As for dice variance, that is something that happens, even 18-1, means that you will lose some of the time. In regular version, the defenders get two dice, and the attacker gets three (and the two highest are what counts), and the defender wins ties (which gives a small edge to the attacker assuming they have enough troops to be eligible for the full three dice, and you are playing the standard version with no weird +1 to roll modifiers etc....) which gives the attacker a slight advantage, but they will still lose sometimes lives or online (I have seen two troops hold against thirty, the probability is probably crazy, but enough sessions and it happens).



I don't care because the game literally said, "100%," so that's supposed to be 100%. The game should have said 99.9%+ if that's what it meant. This was one where I was trying to press in after strategically holding both South America and Australia (and biding my time) to put a pincer attack on North America while my alliance mate controlled Africa and was going to move on Europe. My alliance mate, however, didn't have nearly the material I did (and had one less card) and also had an indefensible position (except for Africa) when it would have come down to just the two of us.

They were also prepared (to their folly) to be loyal until it was down to us, from what I could tell, but obviously turned on me and pushed East then South into Australia after I lost the 18 v. 1 attack. They were in no position to contest South America, (we had our South America/Africa borders stacked because we didn't trust each other THAT much) but taking that over was a trivial affair after the player controlling North America went on the offensive against South America.

Also...even the game says that the RNG essentially tries to prevent ridiculously improbable things from happening. I don't remember the exact verbiage, but it basically says it's random but balanced towards favoring what, "Should," happen.

My guess is the other player has paid for additional features, or whatever, and I did not...so, haha, you get to lose 18 on 1 fights.

Anyway, screw games that are more than zero variance/"luck" dependent, unless I have a mathematical monetary advantage on them. Anything else is stupid and pointless if playing a really strong game can be completely nullified by, "Bad luck."
Last edited by: Mission146 on Dec 29, 2020
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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December 29th, 2020 at 8:06:20 AM permalink
At a key point in a game of Risk during Winter break around 1974, I was attacked by some two dozen armies who were trying to wipe me out. I held Australia with four armies on the defensive perimeter and one on each of the other three. The guy was going big, as I had four Risk cards, and he had three, so if he wiped me out, he could cash in for forty armies, and possibly the second cash of forty-five.
He begins his turn by placing more than enough armies to wipe me out while also preparing to win all of Europe.
So it starts out 24vs 4 with me rolling two dies. My guys perform well, and by the time he busts in, he is down to about 14, and I have three armies left. One in each country, so he is rolling three dies to my one. I manage to pick off one or two, and it comes down to him having nine armies to one as I make my last stand.
My Blue Guys entered legend that day, as I rolled six 5 or 6 high numbers and knocked most half his force. In the end, I survived with one army and one country, and as I didn't have the cards to cash in, the next player took me out, double cashed, and won the game.
The guy who failed to wipe me out, who I will call Chris Dingleberry, accused me of tanking and swore he would never play any game with me again.
Here is the kicker some twenty years later, my mom and his mom were playing Mah Jong, and Mrs. D accused another player of cheating. When my Mom defended her, Mrs. D brought up this long ago Risk game as evidence that my family had a thing against her and hers.
My Mom had no idea what she was talking about and called me at 1130 at night to ask about it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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December 29th, 2020 at 9:05:03 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

At a key point in a game of Risk during Winter break around 1974, I was attacked by some two dozen armies who were trying to wipe me out. I held Australia with four armies on the defensive perimeter and one on each of the other three. The guy was going big, as I had four Risk cards, and he had three, so if he wiped me out, he could cash in for forty armies, and possibly the second cash of forty-five.
He begins his turn by placing more than enough armies to wipe me out while also preparing to win all of Europe.
So it starts out 24vs 4 with me rolling two dies. My guys perform well, and by the time he busts in, he is down to about 14, and I have three armies left. One in each country, so he is rolling three dies to my one. I manage to pick off one or two, and it comes down to him having nine armies to one as I make my last stand.
My Blue Guys entered legend that day, as I rolled six 5 or 6 high numbers and knocked most half his force. In the end, I survived with one army and one country, and as I didn't have the cards to cash in, the next player took me out, double cashed, and won the game.
The guy who failed to wipe me out, who I will call Chris Dingleberry, accused me of tanking and swore he would never play any game with me again.
Here is the kicker some twenty years later, my mom and his mom were playing Mah Jong, and Mrs. D accused another player of cheating. When my Mom defended her, Mrs. D brought up this long ago Risk game as evidence that my family had a thing against her and hers.
My Mom had no idea what she was talking about and called me at 1130 at night to ask about it.



Great story!

I wouldn't have accused you of anything, but I'd have definitely been pretty mad. It should have been an extremely easy push and conquering of your army. But, that's why I hate any game involving luck (unless there's a way to win money) because stuff like that can happen.

I wouldn't even have played the phone app version of the game if not for their assurances that the RNG is designed to not be truly random, but instead to prevent completely ridiculous things from happening.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Gandler
Gandler
Joined: Jan 27, 2014
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December 29th, 2020 at 6:44:40 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I don't care because the game literally said, "100%," so that's supposed to be 100%. The game should have said 99.9%+ if that's what it meant. This was one where I was trying to press in after strategically holding both South America and Australia (and biding my time) to put a pincer attack on North America while my alliance mate controlled Africa and was going to move on Europe. My alliance mate, however, didn't have nearly the material I did (and had one less card) and also had an indefensible position (except for Africa) when it would have come down to just the two of us.

They were also prepared (to their folly) to be loyal until it was down to us, from what I could tell, but obviously turned on me and pushed East then South into Australia after I lost the 18 v. 1 attack. They were in no position to contest South America, (we had our South America/Africa borders stacked because we didn't trust each other THAT much) but taking that over was a trivial affair after the player controlling North America went on the offensive against South America.

Also...even the game says that the RNG essentially tries to prevent ridiculously improbable things from happening. I don't remember the exact verbiage, but it basically says it's random but balanced towards favoring what, "Should," happen.

My guess is the other player has paid for additional features, or whatever, and I did not...so, haha, you get to lose 18 on 1 fights.

Anyway, screw games that are more than zero variance/"luck" dependent, unless I have a mathematical monetary advantage on them. Anything else is stupid and pointless if playing a really strong game can be completely nullified by, "Bad luck."



I am honestly not familiar with what version you are playing where it says "100%" of winning an attack. Maybe it was like 99.5% and it rounds up? I don't know enough about the online version to say.

18-1 you can lose, (extremely rare) but enough plays you will see this (and even more extreme examples occasionally, so it was not necessarily terrible).

If its a free version with pay to win features, I guess that is possible (but it would be pretty sleazy if you can pay for better probabilities in rolls, I just can't see that....)

But, that sounds like a good Risk game, stacked borders with allies, turning on each other in the final hours, etc..... Its never fun to get destroyed when you have an overwhelming advantage, but it happens.

Why so down on some aspects of luck (especially on a gambling forum)? Almost everything (really everything if you are getting super metaphysical) in life has some aspect of luck. Risk represents this with dice (with certain players having the advantage in circumstances, but of course can still lose). Any game that involves drawing cards (even rarely for events, etc...), rolling dice (or spinning a chance wheel etc...), or even drawing/rolling for position has aspects of luck. Even games that are regarded as no luck, often have advantage to players that act first (or last in some cases), so in all cases there is some degree of luck even if it is just drawing/rolling for your seat.... I don't think there is such a thing as a board game with zero luck, and I am not sure if it is possible for there to be. Dice are often used to simulate luck in board and role playing games, and even if your circumstance is your action will be successful if your roll a 2-6 on a six sided die, you can still roll a 1 and fail.


Quote: billryan

At a key point in a game of Risk during Winter break around 1974, I was attacked by some two dozen armies who were trying to wipe me out. I held Australia with four armies on the defensive perimeter and one on each of the other three. The guy was going big, as I had four Risk cards, and he had three, so if he wiped me out, he could cash in for forty armies, and possibly the second cash of forty-five.
He begins his turn by placing more than enough armies to wipe me out while also preparing to win all of Europe.
So it starts out 24vs 4 with me rolling two dies. My guys perform well, and by the time he busts in, he is down to about 14, and I have three armies left. One in each country, so he is rolling three dies to my one. I manage to pick off one or two, and it comes down to him having nine armies to one as I make my last stand.
My Blue Guys entered legend that day, as I rolled six 5 or 6 high numbers and knocked most half his force. In the end, I survived with one army and one country, and as I didn't have the cards to cash in, the next player took me out, double cashed, and won the game.
The guy who failed to wipe me out, who I will call Chris Dingleberry, accused me of tanking and swore he would never play any game with me again.
Here is the kicker some twenty years later, my mom and his mom were playing Mah Jong, and Mrs. D accused another player of cheating. When my Mom defended her, Mrs. D brought up this long ago Risk game as evidence that my family had a thing against her and hers.
My Mom had no idea what she was talking about and called me at 1130 at night to ask about it.



That is an awesome story, it sounds like you have been playing risk for a long time.

What is "tanking" when it comes to Risk? Is that some dice cheat? I have never heard that term in a Risk context?
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 128
December 30th, 2020 at 7:44:52 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

At a key point in a game of Risk during Winter break around 1974, I was attacked by some two dozen armies who were trying to wipe me out. I held Australia with four armies on the defensive perimeter and one on each of the other three. The guy was going big, as I had four Risk cards, and he had three, so if he wiped me out, he could cash in for forty armies, and possibly the second cash of forty-five.


I did some Monte Carlo simulations for Risk attacks. I varied the number of attackers (A) and defenders (D). Both sides use the maximum number of permitted dice for each roll. They roll until there are no armies left on the D side or one on the A side.

I did the minimal sanity test. For 2 A on 1 D, the true win probability is 57.87037%. The average number of rolls (NR) until the battle is resolved is exactly 1. Maybe someone can work out some of the other numbers exactly as a check on my work.

I give a few examples here for 2-5 attackers (A) and 1 defender (D). These results simulated 100M attacks for each A/D combination. The righthand column is the percentage of attacker wins.

2 A 1 D NR: 1.00 57.87164%
3 A 1 D NR: 1.34 85.66709%
4 A 1 D NR: 1.46 95.12347%
5 A 1 D NR: 1.50 98.33814%

In the spoiler, I give many more results of the MC simulations up to 30 attackers and 5 defenders. I skip the result if the defender won none of the 100M simulated attacks. You might want to guess what A/D ratios get you to 90%, 99%, 99.9%, etc. win probability for the attacker before you look at the spoiler. You can see that the case of 2A vs. 4D is already suicidal. If we assume the attack in the quoted event was 24A against 4D, what is your guess for the chance of the attacker failing to even enter Australia? The three remaining ?A vs. 1D battles are high probability wins? However, one attacker must be left behind after every territory is conquered.

2 A 1 D NR: 1.00 57.87164%
3 A 1 D NR: 1.34 85.66709%
4 A 1 D NR: 1.46 95.12347%
5 A 1 D NR: 1.50 98.33814%
6 A 1 D NR: 1.51 99.43451%
7 A 1 D NR: 1.51 99.80772%
8 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.93444%
9 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.97775%
10 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99229%
11 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99742%
12 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99916%
13 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99971%
14 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99990%
15 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99998%
16 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99999%
17 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99999%
18 A 1 D NR: 1.52 100.00000%
19 A 1 D NR: 1.52 100.00000%

2 A 2 D NR: 1.00 22.76441%
3 A 2 D NR: 1.34 56.60051%
4 A 2 D NR: 1.74 72.58983%
5 A 2 D NR: 1.88 85.66534%
6 A 2 D NR: 2.01 91.42443%
7 A 2 D NR: 2.06 95.61839%
8 A 2 D NR: 2.10 97.43021%
9 A 2 D NR: 2.11 98.69519%
10 A 2 D NR: 2.12 99.23950%
11 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.61711%
12 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.77630%
13 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.88694%
14 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.93483%
15 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.96687%
16 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.98087%
17 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99038%
18 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99439%
19 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99715%
20 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99837%
21 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99916%
22 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99949%
23 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99977%
24 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99987%
25 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99994%
26 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99995%
27 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99998%
28 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99999%
29 A 2 D NR: 2.13 100.00000%
30 A 2 D NR: 2.13 100.00000%

2 A 3 D NR: 1.23 13.17429%
3 A 3 D NR: 1.83 39.48065%
4 A 3 D NR: 2.35 58.20858%
5 A 3 D NR: 2.68 72.47405%
6 A 3 D NR: 2.88 82.75735%
7 A 3 D NR: 3.02 88.99438%
8 A 3 D NR: 3.10 93.45864%
9 A 3 D NR: 3.15 95.91126%
10 A 3 D NR: 3.18 97.64703%
11 A 3 D NR: 3.20 98.54838%
12 A 3 D NR: 3.21 99.18150%
13 A 3 D NR: 3.21 99.49944%
14 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.72343%
15 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.83124%
16 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.90788%
17 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.94428%
18 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.97007%
19 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.98190%
20 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99011%
21 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99412%
22 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99687%
23 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99804%
24 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99897%
25 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99942%
26 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99968%
27 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99979%
28 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99990%
29 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99993%
30 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99998%

2 A 4 D NR: 1.23 5.18346%
3 A 4 D NR: 1.91 25.46531%
4 A 4 D NR: 2.62 41.75679%
5 A 4 D NR: 3.05 58.82687%
6 A 4 D NR: 3.41 70.51864%
7 A 4 D NR: 3.62 80.53411%
8 A 4 D NR: 3.79 86.72991%
9 A 4 D NR: 3.88 91.62262%
10 A 4 D NR: 3.96 94.45969%
11 A 4 D NR: 3.99 96.61409%
12 A 4 D NR: 4.02 97.80948%
13 A 4 D NR: 4.04 98.69250%
14 A 4 D NR: 4.05 99.16643%
15 A 4 D NR: 4.05 99.51289%
16 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.69213%
17 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.82187%
18 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.88899%
19 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.93713%
20 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.96076%
21 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.97805%
22 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.98623%
23 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99239%
24 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99540%
25 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99747%
26 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99843%
27 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99915%
28 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99944%
29 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99966%
30 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99982%

2 A 5 D NR: 1.28 2.99708%
3 A 5 D NR: 2.09 16.41157%
4 A 5 D NR: 2.89 31.06663%
5 A 5 D NR: 3.49 45.74699%
6 A 5 D NR: 3.94 59.59313%
7 A 5 D NR: 4.29 70.14248%
8 A 5 D NR: 4.52 79.21174%
9 A 5 D NR: 4.70 85.29208%
10 A 5 D NR: 4.81 90.23047%
11 A 5 D NR: 4.89 93.29394%
12 A 5 D NR: 4.94 95.69925%
13 A 5 D NR: 4.98 97.11549%
14 A 5 D NR: 5.00 98.20149%
15 A 5 D NR: 5.01 98.81334%
16 A 5 D NR: 5.02 99.27519%
17 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.52974%
18 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.71665%
19 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.81766%
20 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.89271%
21 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.93138%
22 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.95951%
23 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.97497%
24 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.98539%
25 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99073%
26 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99470%
27 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.99669%
28 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99814%
29 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99884%
30 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99929%

If you think I screwed up the simulations and presented bogus results, let me know. I am sure someone did a similar MC sim before.
Last edited by: Mental on Dec 30, 2020
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
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January 4th, 2021 at 8:06:24 AM permalink
Quote: Gandler



Why so down on some aspects of luck (especially on a gambling forum)? Almost everything (really everything if you are getting super metaphysical) in life has some aspect of luck. Risk represents this with dice (with certain players having the advantage in circumstances, but of course can still lose). Any game that involves drawing cards (even rarely for events, etc...), rolling dice (or spinning a chance wheel etc...), or even drawing/rolling for position has aspects of luck. Even games that are regarded as no luck, often have advantage to players that act first (or last in some cases), so in all cases there is some degree of luck even if it is just drawing/rolling for your seat.... I don't think there is such a thing as a board game with zero luck, and I am not sure if it is possible for there to be. Dice are often used to simulate luck in board and role playing games, and even if your circumstance is your action will be successful if your roll a 2-6 on a six sided die, you can still roll a 1 and fail.



(Quote clipped, relevance)

I don't mind luck as a means to a financial end, but ask yourself this:

Suppose you had a game where you had a 20% advantage and were expected to make $2,000 worth of spins. If that game had no variance, then you make the spins and profit $400...guaranteed. So, would I even want an advantage play that had some variance component if, "No variance," was an option and both had equal expected monetary value?

Besides that, there's no real, 'Luck,' just variance. I'm just not a fan of variance in games that have no real goal aside from winning the game itself. The only thing it accomplishes is lessens the degree/frequency to which skill is a factor. If my only goal is winning, and I intend to become good at the game, then I should want skill to be as much of a factor as possible...if not the only factor.

The good news for me is I'm too old to care to play games like that anymore anyway. That being the case, the existence/degree of variance in one game v. another isn't really relevant to me.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 15308
January 4th, 2021 at 8:07:22 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

I did some Monte Carlo simulations for Risk attacks. I varied the number of attackers (A) and defenders (D). Both sides use the maximum number of permitted dice for each roll. They roll until there are no armies left on the D side or one on the A side.

I did the minimal sanity test. For 2 A on 1 D, the true win probability is 57.87037%. The average number of rolls (NR) until the battle is resolved is exactly 1. Maybe someone can work out some of the other numbers exactly as a check on my work.

I give a few examples here for 2-5 attackers (A) and 1 defender (D). These results simulated 100M attacks for each A/D combination. The righthand column is the percentage of attacker wins.


2 A 1 D NR: 1.00 57.87164%
3 A 1 D NR: 1.34 85.66709%
4 A 1 D NR: 1.46 95.12347%
5 A 1 D NR: 1.50 98.33814%

In the spoiler, I give many more results of the MC simulations up to 30 attackers and 5 defenders. I skip the result if the defender won none of the 100M simulated attacks. You might want to guess what A/D ratios get you to 90%, 99%, 99.9%, etc. win probability for the attacker before you look at the spoiler. You can see that the case of 2A vs. 4D is already suicidal. If we assume the attack in the quoted event was 24A against 4D, what is your guess for the chance of the attacker failing to even enter Australia? The three remaining ?A vs. 1D battles are high probability wins? However, one attacker must be left behind after every territory is conquered.

2 A 1 D NR: 1.00 57.87164%
3 A 1 D NR: 1.34 85.66709%
4 A 1 D NR: 1.46 95.12347%
5 A 1 D NR: 1.50 98.33814%
6 A 1 D NR: 1.51 99.43451%
7 A 1 D NR: 1.51 99.80772%
8 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.93444%
9 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.97775%
10 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99229%
11 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99742%
12 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99916%
13 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99971%
14 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99990%
15 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99998%
16 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99999%
17 A 1 D NR: 1.52 99.99999%
18 A 1 D NR: 1.52 100.00000%
19 A 1 D NR: 1.52 100.00000%

2 A 2 D NR: 1.00 22.76441%
3 A 2 D NR: 1.34 56.60051%
4 A 2 D NR: 1.74 72.58983%
5 A 2 D NR: 1.88 85.66534%
6 A 2 D NR: 2.01 91.42443%
7 A 2 D NR: 2.06 95.61839%
8 A 2 D NR: 2.10 97.43021%
9 A 2 D NR: 2.11 98.69519%
10 A 2 D NR: 2.12 99.23950%
11 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.61711%
12 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.77630%
13 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.88694%
14 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.93483%
15 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.96687%
16 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.98087%
17 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99038%
18 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99439%
19 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99715%
20 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99837%
21 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99916%
22 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99949%
23 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99977%
24 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99987%
25 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99994%
26 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99995%
27 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99998%
28 A 2 D NR: 2.13 99.99999%
29 A 2 D NR: 2.13 100.00000%
30 A 2 D NR: 2.13 100.00000%

2 A 3 D NR: 1.23 13.17429%
3 A 3 D NR: 1.83 39.48065%
4 A 3 D NR: 2.35 58.20858%
5 A 3 D NR: 2.68 72.47405%
6 A 3 D NR: 2.88 82.75735%
7 A 3 D NR: 3.02 88.99438%
8 A 3 D NR: 3.10 93.45864%
9 A 3 D NR: 3.15 95.91126%
10 A 3 D NR: 3.18 97.64703%
11 A 3 D NR: 3.20 98.54838%
12 A 3 D NR: 3.21 99.18150%
13 A 3 D NR: 3.21 99.49944%
14 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.72343%
15 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.83124%
16 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.90788%
17 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.94428%
18 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.97007%
19 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.98190%
20 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99011%
21 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99412%
22 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99687%
23 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99804%
24 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99897%
25 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99942%
26 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99968%
27 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99979%
28 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99990%
29 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99993%
30 A 3 D NR: 3.22 99.99998%

2 A 4 D NR: 1.23 5.18346%
3 A 4 D NR: 1.91 25.46531%
4 A 4 D NR: 2.62 41.75679%
5 A 4 D NR: 3.05 58.82687%
6 A 4 D NR: 3.41 70.51864%
7 A 4 D NR: 3.62 80.53411%
8 A 4 D NR: 3.79 86.72991%
9 A 4 D NR: 3.88 91.62262%
10 A 4 D NR: 3.96 94.45969%
11 A 4 D NR: 3.99 96.61409%
12 A 4 D NR: 4.02 97.80948%
13 A 4 D NR: 4.04 98.69250%
14 A 4 D NR: 4.05 99.16643%
15 A 4 D NR: 4.05 99.51289%
16 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.69213%
17 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.82187%
18 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.88899%
19 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.93713%
20 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.96076%
21 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.97805%
22 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.98623%
23 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99239%
24 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99540%
25 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99747%
26 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99843%
27 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99915%
28 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99944%
29 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99966%
30 A 4 D NR: 4.06 99.99982%

2 A 5 D NR: 1.28 2.99708%
3 A 5 D NR: 2.09 16.41157%
4 A 5 D NR: 2.89 31.06663%
5 A 5 D NR: 3.49 45.74699%
6 A 5 D NR: 3.94 59.59313%
7 A 5 D NR: 4.29 70.14248%
8 A 5 D NR: 4.52 79.21174%
9 A 5 D NR: 4.70 85.29208%
10 A 5 D NR: 4.81 90.23047%
11 A 5 D NR: 4.89 93.29394%
12 A 5 D NR: 4.94 95.69925%
13 A 5 D NR: 4.98 97.11549%
14 A 5 D NR: 5.00 98.20149%
15 A 5 D NR: 5.01 98.81334%
16 A 5 D NR: 5.02 99.27519%
17 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.52974%
18 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.71665%
19 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.81766%
20 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.89271%
21 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.93138%
22 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.95951%
23 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.97497%
24 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.98539%
25 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99073%
26 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99470%
27 A 5 D NR: 5.03 99.99669%
28 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99814%
29 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99884%
30 A 5 D NR: 5.04 99.99929%

If you think I screwed up the simulations and presented bogus results, let me know. I am sure someone did a similar MC sim before.



Awesome work!!!

Short Answer: There's essentially no way I should have lost, but I did. Screw that game.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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