2013 Academy Award Predictions

Quote: Nostron

I will be in Vegas this weekend - you can bet on this at any sportsbook??

I don't think any book in Vegas will carry this non-sporting event. The ballots have been counted already so there are several individuals who have insider knowledge, and potentially could make a bit of money if action were available.

Thanks - thats sort of what I thought - but you can make an online bet.

Of the ones I think will win - Jennifer Lawrence has the lowest juice at 240 - thats still too much.

Here are the lines on the big favorites at Bovada. It looks like Pinnacle isn't doing the Oscars this year.

Best Picture = Argo -700
Best Director = Steven Spielberg -400
Best Actor = Daniel Day-Lewis -5000
Best Supporting Actress = Anne Hathaway -5000
Best Foreign Film = Amour -5000
Best Documentary Feature = Searching for Sugar Man -1500
Best Original Song = Skyfall -1000
Best Visual Effects = Life of Pi -2000
Best Costume Design = Anna Karenina -400

Quote: Wizard

Here are the lines on the big favorites at Bovada. It looks like Pinnacle isn't doing the Oscars this year.

Best Picture = Argo -700
Best Director = Steven Spielberg -400
Best Actor = Daniel Day-Lewis -5000
Best Supporting Actress = Anne Hathaway -5000
Best Foreign Film = Amour -5000
Best Documentary Feature = Searching for Sugar Man -1500
Best Original Song = Skyfall -1000
Best Visual Effects = Life of Pi -2000
Best Costume Design = Anna Karenina -400

I am surprised at Argo's line. It's a good movie, but I don't think the Academy would pick it as the best of the bunch.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I am surprised at Argo's line. It's a good movie, but I don't think the Academy would pick it as the best of the bunch.

Didn't they pick The Hurt Locker for Best Picture? I never saw Argo, so can't criticize. The only two movies up for Bets Picture I've seen this year are Life of Pi and Django Unchained.

Quote: Wizard

Didn't they pick The Hurt Locker for Best Picture? I never saw Argo, so can't criticize. The only two movies up for Bets Picture I've seen this year are Life of Pi and Django Unchained.

Hurt Locker won 6 Oscars in 2010. I thought it was a good movie. Did you see it? The other nominees that year were:

A Serious Man: Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
An Education: Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey
Avatar: James Cameron, Jon Landau
District 9: Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham
Inglourious Basterds: Lawrence Bender
Precious: Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness
The Blind Side: Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson
Up: Jonas Rivera
Up in the Air: Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman

Due to the large field, I think Avatar got the short end of it that year. Voting for the Best Picture is open to all Academy members. Historically, this has resulted in wins for the films with the most Academy members involved in them.

I saw Argo, Lincoln, Les Mis and Silver Linings Playbook. The only one that I still want to see is Zero Dark Thirty.
Entertainment Weekly has an interesting theory: The actors make up the biggest voting bloc in the Academy, and Silver Linings Playbook got the most acting nominations, therefore it has the broadest appeal. Argo is only winning recently because Ben Affleck was snubbed as Best Director by the Academy, and they are trying to make it up with the public.

Quote: Wizard

Here are the lines on the big favorites at Bovada. It looks like Pinnacle isn't doing the Oscars this year.

Best Picture = Argo -700
Best Director = Steven Spielberg -400
Best Actor = Daniel Day-Lewis -5000
Best Supporting Actress = Anne Hathaway -5000
Best Foreign Film = Amour -5000
Best Documentary Feature = Searching for Sugar Man -1500
Best Original Song = Skyfall -1000
Best Visual Effects = Life of Pi -2000
Best Costume Design = Anna Karenina -400

The only big upset this year was for best director. Despite -400 odds on Spielberg, the winner was Ang Lee for Life of Pi. I might note that the odds dropped on Spielberg to -255 on 5 Dimes the day of the awards.

If you had bet one unit on all the above bets you would have lost -0.33 units, out of 9 units bet, for a return of -3.7%.

If you had bet enough to win one unit on each bet you would have won 4 units and bet 210, for a profit of 1.9%.

How early in the process do you like to bet? I saw Day-Lewis for -700 and Hathaway -1000 the day the nominations came out. Is it worth the risk to bet early or is it best to see who wins at the other awards ceremonies and accept significantly reduced odds the day of the event?

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Quote: 1arrowheaddr

How early in the process do you like to bet?

I recommend betting late. In the two big upsets, the one this year and Crash for best picture in 2005, the odds dropped on the favorite. So betting late you would have lost less, or perhaps not at all. I don't recommend betting anything unless you're laying 4 to 1 or more. Maybe I should up that to 5 to 1.