June 30th, 2022 at 3:03:47 PM
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Quote:Roostarr

The baccarat rules are:

No negative progression

Systems always fail

Elliot Jacobson is an expert

The Tie bet is a suckers bet

Counting cards for one hand at a time adds no edge

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These are generally good lessons.

Other curiosities from the video:

We do not see the shuffle. The presenter just promises that he shuffled fairly. The presenter also comments that this is an unusually good shoe. I am not saying this.presenter stacked the deck, but I have seen other system sellers make videos with stacked decks. I look for a "prover" of some type; cuts, riffles, etc.

This presenter seems keenly focused on recruiting patronage. I haven't looked into the card shoes he seems to be trying to sell (which he implied that he makes), but I doubt his fine products are the best value for the struggling young card counter looking to practice at home. (The one I bought a decade ago cost me less than the materials would have cost to hand-craft my own.)

Endless babble about "symmetry". It didn't make sense to me. Perhaps I'm an irredeemable dullard who just doesn't "get it", but I don't think there's anything to get.

The tempo of the patter and demonstration is too rapid for an "explanation" video. The tempo is more what I expect from someone dealing three card monte, where the rapid pace is part of the simultaneous engagement and misdirection.

The presenter said near the beginning that there would be a review session later in the video. I never saw a meaningful review.

If you want to see someone who doesn't feel like they're trying to pull a hustle, please check out https://youtu.be/PljDuynF-j0

I do not endorse or derive profit from them.

Some minor differences to note:

Better explanations

Slower tempo (time for the information to "soak in"; the goal is to inform not razzle-dazzle)

They aren't touting a progression system

They aren't hiding what they're up to in the video behind "proprietary information for subscribers only". (There is more that they won't tell you for free within the paywalled garden. There is validity to this approach.)

The video generally matches what a number of very trusted experts have said for decades.

May the cards fall in your favor.

June 30th, 2022 at 3:39:19 PM
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Thank You! I thought that about the video too. Seemed like the only way to test it would be to do it ones self . . . Except he says he is holding the cards you need to try it.

I mean . . . Theres true stuff, but you really.pointed it all out. You must be a great baccarat player.

Thank you so much!!

I mean . . . Theres true stuff, but you really.pointed it all out. You must be a great baccarat player.

Thank you so much!!

June 30th, 2022 at 5:34:05 PM
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Quote:RoostarrThank You! I thought that about the video too. Seemed like the only way to test it would be to do it ones self . . . Except he says he is holding the cards you need to try it.

I mean . . . Theres true stuff, but you really.pointed it all out. You must be a great baccarat player.

Thank you so much!!

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I actually can't stand baccarat.

Alternately, I haven't lost a hand of baccarat in years.

Alternately, I haven't lost a hand of baccarat in years.

May the cards fall in your favor.

June 30th, 2022 at 6:03:03 PM
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Okay, I will provide you some of this. The table below provides you the probability of all the hands from an 8-deck shoe that start symmetrically with 4 cards of the same rank ,(e.g.; Player 1,1 vs Banker 1,1) and that have a TIE outcome.

The total probability of all these so-called "Symmetric Tie" cases is 0.001377271

Starting Hands | Combinations that TIE | Probability of Occurrence |
---|---|---|

00,00 | 6190853760000 | 0.001238568 |

11,11 | 14682036480 | 2.93735E-06 |

22,22 | 652458240 | 1.30533E-07 |

33,33 | 146140289280 | 2.92374E-05 |

44,44 | 146140289280 | 2.92374E-05 |

55,55 | 21531121920 | 4.3076E-06 |

66,66 | 21531121920 | 4.3076E-06 |

77,77 | 50335944960 | 1.00704E-05 |

88,88 | 146140289280 | 2.92374E-05 |

99,99 | 146140289280 | 2.92374E-05 |

The total probability of all these so-called "Symmetric Tie" cases is 0.001377271

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

June 30th, 2022 at 6:25:16 PM
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Here is the same information for a 6-deck shoe.

With 6-decks the cumulative probability of all these so-called "Symmetric Tie" cases is 0.001340301

Starting Hands | Combinations that TIE | Probability of Occurrence |
---|---|---|

00,00 | 1063558713600 | 0.001210144 |

11,11 | 2422728000 | 2.75664E-06 |

22,22 | 96909120 | 1.10266E-07 |

33,33 | 24114049344 | 2.74376E-05 |

44,44 | 24114049344 | 2.74376E-05 |

55,55 | 3548913984 | 4.03805E-06 |

66,66 | 3548913984 | 4.03805E-06 |

77,77 | 8316842688 | 9.46312E-06 |

88,88 | 24114049344 | 2.74376E-05 |

99,99 | 24114049344 | 2.74376E-05 |

With 6-decks the cumulative probability of all these so-called "Symmetric Tie" cases is 0.001340301

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

August 8th, 2022 at 9:58:48 AM
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The way I described it as symmetrical may have caused the miscommunication.

Buy symmetrical I mean a score. So any combination of one to one or two to two when there are only four cards. Not the actual cards AA, AA or KK, KK. But rather:

For example 7K, 34

That is a 4 card symmetry in Shape and value.

I'm assuming the probability of these occurrences would be much higher.

Unless I Misunderstanding! Thanks again!

Thanks!!

Buy symmetrical I mean a score. So any combination of one to one or two to two when there are only four cards. Not the actual cards AA, AA or KK, KK. But rather:

For example 7K, 34

That is a 4 card symmetry in Shape and value.

I'm assuming the probability of these occurrences would be much higher.

Unless I Misunderstanding! Thanks again!

Thanks!!

August 8th, 2022 at 11:16:49 AM
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Well, I am now grumpy. Just to be nice, I did a lot of work and it turns out to be of no value to you. Although, frankly, I can't figure out how the answers to any of your questions would have any value to anyone.

Obviously, if both player and banker are dealt a two-card nine that will be a tie. Or if both are dealt a two-card eight. So, yes, the probabilities of your so-called "symmetric ties" will be much higher than the probability values in the tables I have posted above.

Obviously, if both player and banker are dealt a two-card nine that will be a tie. Or if both are dealt a two-card eight. So, yes, the probabilities of your so-called "symmetric ties" will be much higher than the probability values in the tables I have posted above.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

August 8th, 2022 at 11:16:54 AM
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Well, I am now grumpy. Just to be nice, I did a lot of work and it turns out to be of no value to you. Although, frankly, I can't figure out how the answers to any of your questions would have any value to anyone.

Obviously, if both player and banker are dealt a two-card nine that will be a tie. Or if both are dealt a two-card eight. So, yes, the probabilities of your so-called "symmetric ties" will be much higher than the probability values in the tables I have posted above.So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

Obviously, if both player and banker are dealt a two-card nine that will be a tie. Or if both are dealt a two-card eight. So, yes, the probabilities of your so-called "symmetric ties" will be much higher than the probability values in the tables I have posted above.