Dieter
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Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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June 30th, 2022 at 3:03:47 PM permalink
Quote: Roostarr


The baccarat rules are:

No negative progression
Systems always fail
Elliot Jacobson is an expert
The Tie bet is a suckers bet
Counting cards for one hand at a time adds no edge
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These are generally good lessons.

Other curiosities from the video:
We do not see the shuffle. The presenter just promises that he shuffled fairly. The presenter also comments that this is an unusually good shoe. I am not saying this.presenter stacked the deck, but I have seen other system sellers make videos with stacked decks. I look for a "prover" of some type; cuts, riffles, etc.

This presenter seems keenly focused on recruiting patronage. I haven't looked into the card shoes he seems to be trying to sell (which he implied that he makes), but I doubt his fine products are the best value for the struggling young card counter looking to practice at home. (The one I bought a decade ago cost me less than the materials would have cost to hand-craft my own.)

Endless babble about "symmetry". It didn't make sense to me. Perhaps I'm an irredeemable dullard who just doesn't "get it", but I don't think there's anything to get.

The tempo of the patter and demonstration is too rapid for an "explanation" video. The tempo is more what I expect from someone dealing three card monte, where the rapid pace is part of the simultaneous engagement and misdirection.

The presenter said near the beginning that there would be a review session later in the video. I never saw a meaningful review.


If you want to see someone who doesn't feel like they're trying to pull a hustle, please check out https://youtu.be/PljDuynF-j0

I do not endorse or derive profit from them.

Some minor differences to note:
Better explanations
Slower tempo (time for the information to "soak in"; the goal is to inform not razzle-dazzle)
They aren't touting a progression system
They aren't hiding what they're up to in the video behind "proprietary information for subscribers only". (There is more that they won't tell you for free within the paywalled garden. There is validity to this approach.)
The video generally matches what a number of very trusted experts have said for decades.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Roostarr
Roostarr
Joined: May 31, 2022
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June 30th, 2022 at 3:39:19 PM permalink
Thank You! I thought that about the video too. Seemed like the only way to test it would be to do it ones self . . . Except he says he is holding the cards you need to try it.

I mean . . . Theres true stuff, but you really.pointed it all out. You must be a great baccarat player.

Thank you so much!!
Dieter
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Dieter
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June 30th, 2022 at 5:34:05 PM permalink
Quote: Roostarr

Thank You! I thought that about the video too. Seemed like the only way to test it would be to do it ones self . . . Except he says he is holding the cards you need to try it.

I mean . . . Theres true stuff, but you really.pointed it all out. You must be a great baccarat player.

Thank you so much!!
link to original post



I actually can't stand baccarat.
Alternately, I haven't lost a hand of baccarat in years.
May the cards fall in your favor.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
June 30th, 2022 at 6:03:03 PM permalink
Okay, I will provide you some of this. The table below provides you the probability of all the hands from an 8-deck shoe that start symmetrically with 4 cards of the same rank ,(e.g.; Player 1,1 vs Banker 1,1) and that have a TIE outcome.

Starting Hands
Combinations that TIE
Probability of Occurrence
00,00
6190853760000
0.001238568
11,11
14682036480
2.93735E-06
22,22
652458240
1.30533E-07
33,33
146140289280
2.92374E-05
44,44
146140289280
2.92374E-05
55,55
21531121920
4.3076E-06
66,66
21531121920
4.3076E-06
77,77
50335944960
1.00704E-05
88,88
146140289280
2.92374E-05
99,99
146140289280
2.92374E-05


The total probability of all these so-called "Symmetric Tie" cases is 0.001377271
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
June 30th, 2022 at 6:25:16 PM permalink
Here is the same information for a 6-deck shoe.

Starting Hands
Combinations that TIE
Probability of Occurrence
00,00
1063558713600
0.001210144
11,11
2422728000
2.75664E-06
22,22
96909120
1.10266E-07
33,33
24114049344
2.74376E-05
44,44
24114049344
2.74376E-05
55,55
3548913984
4.03805E-06
66,66
3548913984
4.03805E-06
77,77
8316842688
9.46312E-06
88,88
24114049344
2.74376E-05
99,99
24114049344
2.74376E-05


With 6-decks the cumulative probability of all these so-called "Symmetric Tie" cases is 0.001340301
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Roostarr
Roostarr
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August 8th, 2022 at 9:58:48 AM permalink
The way I described it as symmetrical may have caused the miscommunication.

Buy symmetrical I mean a score. So any combination of one to one or two to two when there are only four cards. Not the actual cards AA, AA or KK, KK. But rather:

For example 7K, 34

That is a 4 card symmetry in Shape and value.

I'm assuming the probability of these occurrences would be much higher.

Unless I Misunderstanding! Thanks again!

Thanks!!
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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August 8th, 2022 at 11:16:49 AM permalink
Well, I am now grumpy. Just to be nice, I did a lot of work and it turns out to be of no value to you. Although, frankly, I can't figure out how the answers to any of your questions would have any value to anyone.

Obviously, if both player and banker are dealt a two-card nine that will be a tie. Or if both are dealt a two-card eight. So, yes, the probabilities of your so-called "symmetric ties" will be much higher than the probability values in the tables I have posted above.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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August 8th, 2022 at 11:16:54 AM permalink
Well, I am now grumpy. Just to be nice, I did a lot of work and it turns out to be of no value to you. Although, frankly, I can't figure out how the answers to any of your questions would have any value to anyone.

Obviously, if both player and banker are dealt a two-card nine that will be a tie. Or if both are dealt a two-card eight. So, yes, the probabilities of your so-called "symmetric ties" will be much higher than the probability values in the tables I have posted above.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

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