moses
moses
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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April 7th, 2021 at 9:40:10 AM permalink
I tossed out the same. Totally agree to hit 10vs10 if you're not side counting Aces.

If you have Qfit products I'd suggest switching the tags on the 2 and 7 for double deck (only). Then add 14vs10 which will probably line up with the TC for insurance in the index generation. But ALWAYS run your sims first.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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April 7th, 2021 at 10:00:48 AM permalink
Quote: BoSox

I could not respond to you guys last night as I reached the post's daily limit for new members.



Gee whiz, I hate that you have hit your daily limit and run up against a road block at the end of the day and we miss out on the important stuff you may have to say. lol.

Have you asked to have the daily limit lifted? No need now, as I just requested it. I am always looking out for you my friend.
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
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April 7th, 2021 at 10:48:56 AM permalink
Guess we are all quietly working our way to Max Rubin's Blackjack Ball. Lol.
moses
moses
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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April 7th, 2021 at 9:04:07 PM permalink
I ran some numbers on CV Data for dd 10vs10. The sim was for 200 mil hands. Since none of us will ever play even 2 mil hands, I took the percentage of hands played x 100k.

At TC 1t: You'd have 260 hands. 115 wins 101 loss 44 ties.
At TC 2+: 110 hands 49 wins 41 loss 20 ties.
At TC 3+ 50 hands 22 wins 18 lost 10 ties.

My question is would you always hit? DD at tc 1? tc 2? tc 3?
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
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April 7th, 2021 at 10:23:37 PM permalink
In a perfect world where card counters are ignored and one could play with unlimited bet spreads then yes it appears that's the right play. There are much more variables than sheer numbers. All variances from basic strategy are a tell. Do you want to risk being fingered as card counter on doubling 10 vs. 10? Every blackjack players situation is different. Proximity to playable casinos. Number of playable casinos. Costs associated to get to playable casinos. Heat at casinos, etc.

With my circumstances that's a play, I am not willing to make even with a true plus 4.
moses
moses
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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April 7th, 2021 at 10:35:00 PM permalink
I agree Howdy. There was a time when I could play $100k hands a year. Now it will take 3 years. My max bet is $200. So at TC 3+ I would win 4 times more than I lose. A presumed profit of $1600 or $533 annually.

Im still not sure. I think Im leaning to agree with Howdy and Bosox and just hit. Double Down 10vs10 doesnt draw heat here. It would come up about once every 3 weeks on average.

What win percentage would make it worthwhile for you?
Last edited by: moses on Apr 8, 2021
kewlj
kewlj
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April 9th, 2021 at 9:57:05 PM permalink
Quote: moses

I agree Howdy. There was a time when I could play $100k hands a year. Now it will take 3 years. My max bet is $200. So at TC 3+ I would win 4 times more than I lose. A presumed profit of $1600 or $533 annually.



Moses, I have read and reread this and just have zero clue what you are trying to say. I assume the $ sign is added mistakenly and you are saying you used to play 100k hands and now play a third of that. Similarly, my first few years in Vegas, I played 80-100 thousand rounds of blackjack a year and now play 50-60k. For people that don't understand 100k rounds is a LOT. I know people think 100 rounds an hour so 100k is 1000 hour, which is about 1/2 a 40 hour work week. That is not even close to how it works. For every hour played there is 1-2 hours in travel, scouting, keeping records. Most professional players play 20-30k thousand rounds.

Ok, so on to sentence number 2. Are you saying at TC+3, you win 80% of your hands, (4 times more than you lose). That is not really possible. I must be misunderstanding what you are saying.
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
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April 9th, 2021 at 11:14:59 PM permalink
Hey, kewlj.
I don't believe there is a TC high enough to win 80% of the hands. I could be wrong but that seems like a tall, tall order. I believe at such a ridiculous high TC too many pushes would come into play before an 80% win rate is achieved.
Howdy234
Howdy234
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April 10th, 2021 at 12:00:41 AM permalink
We have all been at the tables on occasion when the TC is neutral or slightly negative and yet we win 80% of the hands for a very, very short period of time. It is more a function of exceptional matching and great hitting of stiffs. In these rare circumstances, the dealer will sometimes make a positive progression comment. At this point, you want to grab the dealer and say the count doesn't support it. We just have to shrug it off and say that yes I am lucky right now. Lol.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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April 10th, 2021 at 12:42:35 AM permalink
Quote: Howdy234

Hey, kewlj.
I don't believe there is a TC high enough to win 80% of the hands. I could be wrong but that seems like a tall, tall order. I believe at such a ridiculous high TC too many pushes would come into play before an 80% win rate is achieved.



I don't want to speak for moses, I'll let him clarify what he is talking about with the wins 4 x losses statement. Doesn't make sense to me.

But I can say that Moses has always had this rather odd idea that he can win 60% of his large bets, which really isn't possible on a longterm basis. He is right in thinking that what occurs when are large bets are out, the max bet situations is going to determine if we are winning or losing for that day or period of days. If you have a session or few days when you are losing all or majority of large bets, those are going to be losing days. And conversely with winning.

Now it may turn out that over a short period, say 2 or 3 days, you win 60% of max bets at lets say $200 each and at the end of that stretch of play you are ahead "roughly' $4000, and by the end of the month when everything is said and done, you finish up about that same amount, you can point to particular stretch as to where most of that winning came from. But you can't sustain that 60% for the entire month. That just isn't possible. That is like a roulette player thinking I can just win 3 or every 5 spins, betting black. There will be stretches that occurs, but you can't sustain that for any time.

So that was 60%. This is the first time I have read him say 80% or 4 times losses. I am hoping I am just misunderstanding what he is saying. Sometimes with moses and I, it is like we are talking different languages and I just am mis-understanding what he is trying to say. Hopefully that is the case here.

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