kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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April 6th, 2021 at 7:18:49 PM permalink
Quote: Howdy234

Wong out at anything less than TC -2. As I am sure your aware, the il18 has diminishing returns for 9-18. Of course, the most important deviation is take insurance TC +3. I don't split tens at all and will not double 10 vs. 10. Can't split 10,10 vs 5 at TC +5 and 10,10 vs 6 at TC +4. I do the rest of the il18. As you are aware, those two plays are for counters only and imbeciles. The casino knows I am not an imbecile so there you go. I like playing there and don't want to rub salt in the wound. Lol.



Just a "thankyou" or a "like" of this post, which I did, isn't enough. I gotta say how much I agree with this and and think many players miss the boat about 'diminishing returns'.

With the I18, isn't the math like these 18 account for 80% of the value of 100 index plays, and even more extreme, the top 3, insurance, stand 16 vs 10, stand 15 vs 10 account for 60%.

And you get into higher counts it works exactly the same way. There might be "some" advantage of consideration of a level 2 for some players. After that it goes downhill sharply.

These players that want to squeeze every penny of advantage by learning harder counts and 100's of index plays, whatever the gain with these mental gymnastics just isn't worth it. Keep it simple and your mind free and some other possibilities will open up right in front of you, that you will miss with all this busy work. :)
kewlj
kewlj
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April 6th, 2021 at 7:36:51 PM permalink
Quote: BoSox

Howdy, I only play shoes games and also do not split 10,10 nor do I double 10 vs 10.



I am with you on splitting 10's. There really is no way to pull that off. Maybe if you were to split 10's on every hand, but that is a high cost, probably a negative cost total. I consider splitting 10's at a very high RA count, only if I am traveling and know I won't be back at that casino for a long time, if ever. And even then, there is a risk. If splitting 10's is the play that puts you over the top in getting databased, that can follow you, even beat you to your home casino(s).

Now double 10 vs 10, I do. I use a RA index higher than the +5 it becomes +EV, but if the count gets to +7 or higher I am doubling. You can incorporate some cover into this by way of act. I sometimes slam (not really slam, but ya know) that double and say something about "I know this is the wrong play, but give me a 10".

Funny story about the 10 vs dealer 10 from years ago, you probably have read it, I called it the "perfect shoe". Short version: from the time count got to max bet and beyond, I won every hand except one that I pushed on. That one hand was a 10 vs dealer 10. The count was monster and the play to double. But I had already drawn too much attention and didn't want to add to it, with a play often viewed as a "tell". So I hit, drew a 3, I think, hit again, pulled a 7 for 20. Dealer turns over his 10 for a 20 and push. Had I made the right play, I lose both hands. Better to be lucky than good. :)
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
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April 6th, 2021 at 7:47:48 PM permalink
Thanks for the kind words. I am of the opinion to learn the basics well capture the lion's share of the easy value. The game will be more fun and easier to play for extended lengths of time. I know as an advantage player we aren't in the game for fun however I am not into mental gymnastics to capture every penny of advantage. I believe new counters should pare down their system and do it well. Let's just hope the 6/5 spread doesn't eradicate our game.
Howdy234
Howdy234
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April 6th, 2021 at 8:02:33 PM permalink
Yes, splitting tens isn't feasible. At a table with other players, they will squawk so loud that it will draw attention and we can't afford that. Love the story of just hitting ten vs. ten with monster count.
kewlj
kewlj
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April 6th, 2021 at 8:19:15 PM permalink
Quote: Howdy234

Yes, splitting tens isn't feasible. At a table with other players, they will squawk so loud that it will draw attention and we can't afford that. Love the story of just hitting ten vs. ten with monster count.



I like to call that "secondary" attention. It isn't what we do that draws the attention, but the reaction from the other players that draws attention that otherwise wouldn't have been drawn.

And this is exactly why that funny little comment about "there other players at the table", is wrong. Other players hitting or standing doesn't effect you one iota, but them squawking (to use your word) and bringing extra attention, does.
moses
moses 
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April 6th, 2021 at 8:38:38 PM permalink
Excellent posts guys. Well worth reading.🖒 FWIW, if I were to split 10s, my hind parts might land somewhere between Elko and Wendover.

My view on doubling 10 is the same as insurance. If I was willing to insure against an Ace with a 10 being under. Then why couldnt a 10 be the next card dealt? In a straight up game. I also side count Aces. In your lingo, with 4 Aces remain in a single deck Im doubling at TC 2 floored with 4 Aces remain. But not doubling when Aces are exhausted.
BoSox
BoSox 
Joined: Mar 9, 2021
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April 7th, 2021 at 6:38:14 AM permalink
Quote: moses

Excellent posts guys. Well worth reading.🖒 FWIW, if I were to split 10s, my hind parts might land somewhere between Elko and Wendover.

My view on doubling 10 is the same as insurance. If I was willing to insure against an Ace with a 10 being under. Then why couldnt a 10 be the next card dealt?



I could not respond to you guys last night as I reached the post's daily limit for new members.
Moses, no disrespect intended but you cannot look at it that way. That insurance bet pays 2 for 1 payoff, you only need to be right one-third of the time just to break out even for insurance. For doubling, you need a higher number.


KewlJ, the ten vs ten double is really tricky in the fact that two people in the same position can do the opposite thing one doubling and one hitting, and both be right. Or could in fact be getting the extra EV but at the same time lowering the CE "certainty equivalents" and actually be lowering your SCORE in the process. Everything is based not only on the spread you are using during these large true counts for the 10-10 double but what fraction of Kelly Equivalent the wager represents, there needs to be a consideration for adjustments for risk. Don S explains it in the last paragraph on page 372 and the first paragraph on page 373. On page 378 there is an actual chart showing all the facts for the ten vs ten double based on spreads and kelly equivalent. The bottom line is what may be right for us may not be the best move for someone else.
moses
moses 
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April 7th, 2021 at 6:53:24 AM permalink
Mr Bosox. I also followed up with side count of Aces. Easy peasy with 4 in single deck. I would think not too difficult with 8 in double deck. But 24 in a six deck shoe? Not so fast my friend.

Thus hitting is totally logical. .
BoSox
BoSox 
Joined: Mar 9, 2021
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April 7th, 2021 at 8:58:50 AM permalink
Quote: moses

Mr Bosox. I also followed up with side count of Aces. Easy peasy with 4 in single deck. I would think not too difficult with 8 in double deck. But 24 in a six deck shoe? Not so fast my friend.

Thus hitting is totally logical. .




Yes, I know what you are saying moses, that is where it is so hard to relate between shoe players and a single deck player such as yourself. We have seemed to bump up with that problem time and time again. I agree that it is a good thread.
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
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April 7th, 2021 at 9:03:32 AM permalink
I use what I loosely term a "practical" 13 instead of illustrious 18. Throw out splitting tens, 10 vs. 10 double, 12 vs. 5, and 12 vs. 6. Realize the algorithms implemented by surveillance can detect anyone counting in a heartbeat however I am hoping to blend in with a basic strategy player as best I can. Trying to avoid as much "secondary" attention as kewlj aptly described it as possible. Realize that I am loosing some value but easier to implement in real casino situations (distractions, conversations, etc).

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