LootHog
LootHog
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December 31st, 2020 at 11:01:18 AM permalink
I once dealt a player 20 straight winning hands at a blackjack table. He was the only player at the table. I dealt out of a eight deck shuffle machine. Dealer hits on a soft 17, split any pair and double any two cards. What are the odds?
heatmap
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December 31st, 2020 at 11:21:25 AM permalink
Quote: LootHog

I once dealt a player 20 straight winning hands at a blackjack table. He was the only player at the table. I dealt out of a eight deck shuffle machine. Dealer hits on a soft 17, split any pair and double any two cards. What are the odds?



Do you know if he made any mistakes off the top of your head. Maybe do anything odd such as stand when they weren’t supposed to kind of thing?
LootHog
LootHog
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December 31st, 2020 at 11:50:03 AM permalink
Don't recall anything out of the ordinary. A streak like that makes one suspicious, but there were no issues.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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December 31st, 2020 at 12:04:28 PM permalink
So did he have a bet spread? Did he go from $25 to $250, with or without a count?
Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
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December 31st, 2020 at 12:14:21 PM permalink
Quote: LootHog

I once dealt a player 20 straight winning hands at a blackjack table. He was the only player at the table. I dealt out of a eight deck shuffle machine. Dealer hits on a soft 17, split any pair and double any two cards. What are the odds?



It looks like the odds of 20 consecutive wins in a row would be astronomical. Obviously certain assumptions would have to be made. But I think if we just assume basic strategy we could base the odds on that and get a meaningful answer.
Last edited by: Greasyjohn on Jan 1, 2021
LootHog
LootHog
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December 31st, 2020 at 1:42:11 PM permalink
$50 per hand. Total winnings = $1200.
LootHog
LootHog
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December 31st, 2020 at 1:45:49 PM permalink
Agree. I just don't know the math.
TomG
TomG
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December 31st, 2020 at 2:04:03 PM permalink
If we ignore pushes as no-action, the odds of winning 20 hands of black jack in a row is fairly close to 0.47^20, or about 1 in 3.5 million.

But you asked about the chance of dealing that to a player. That depends on how long your career as a dealer is, as well as the behavior of the players, and how often you have to take breaks or change tables. Assuming 60 hands per hour, 40 hours per week, and neither player, nor dealer ever leaves during a winning streak, I calculate the chance of seeing it during the year at about 3%.
LootHog
LootHog
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December 31st, 2020 at 3:08:42 PM permalink
Thanks for computing and sharing the results. I know there are skeptics out there, but it happened.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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Thanks for this post from:
LootHog
January 1st, 2021 at 6:33:04 AM permalink
AOS claims to have lost 30 in a row.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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