Poll

1 vote (10%)
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1 vote (10%)
1 vote (10%)
1 vote (10%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (20%)
1 vote (10%)
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10 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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February 25th, 2019 at 5:46:30 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are the betting favorites for the 2019 Academy Awards and the probability of winning, as suggested by the going odds:

Award Winner Odds
Best Picture Roma 68.75%
Best Director Alfonso Cuaron 92.08%
Best Actor Rami Malek 84.47%
Best Actress Glenn Close 84.91%
 Best Supporting Actor Mahershala Ali 92.08%
Best Supporting Actress  Regina King 69.70%
Best Animated Feature Film  Spider-Man 93.06%
 Best Foreign Language Film Roma 92.59%
 Best Cinematography  Roma 90.91%
Best Original Song  Shallow - Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born 95.24%



Hit all of them except Best Picture and Best Actress. Glad I didn't bet this year. I probably wouldn't have bet Best Picture, but Best Actress would have wiped winnings in every other category and more.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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February 25th, 2019 at 5:49:07 AM permalink
As a bit of trivia, and correct me I'm wrong, but I believe the only two times Spike Lee was up for best picture were for Do the Right Thing and BlacKKKlansman. Do the Right thing lost to Driving Miss Daisy, a movie about a black chauffeur for a white client. This year he lost to a movie about a white chauffeur for a black client.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ams288
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February 25th, 2019 at 5:52:08 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As a bit of trivia, and correct me I'm wrong, but I believe the only two times Spike Lee was up for best picture were for Do the Right Thing and BlacKKKlansman. Do the Right thing lost to Driving Miss Daisy, a movie about a black chauffeur for a white client. This year he lost to a movie about a white chauffeur for a black client.



“Every time somebody is driving somebody I lose. They changed the seating arrangement.” - Spike Lee to the press last night in the green room
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
gamerfreak
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February 25th, 2019 at 5:53:09 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As a bit of trivia, and correct me I'm wrong, but I believe the only two times Spike Lee was up for best picture were for Do the Right Thing and BlacKKKlansman. Do the Right thing lost to Driving Miss Daisy, a movie about a black chauffeur for a white client. This year he lost to a movie about a white chauffeur for a black client.


This is correct.

Last night Spike Lee threw a fit when he didn’t win and stormed out of the room. Jordon Peele talked him down and he returned to his seat.

I’ve always thought Spike Lee was a jerk based on other incidents, and last night confirmed.
ams288
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February 25th, 2019 at 5:56:44 AM permalink
Lots of liberals are upset about Green Book winning for some reason. I don’t get it.

I haven’t seen it so I have no strong feelings whatsoever. And I’d still like to see it.

I just think it’s interesting that it was directed by Peter Farrelly, one half of the “Farrelly Brothers” who directed comedies like Dumb and Dumber, Kingpin, and There’s Something About Mary. Never would have guessed he’d be an Oscar winner one day.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
gamerfreak
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February 25th, 2019 at 6:31:33 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Lots of liberals are upset about Green Book winning for some reason. I don’t get it.

I haven’t seen it so I have no strong feelings whatsoever. And I’d still like to see it.

I just think it’s interesting that it was directed by Peter Farrelly, one half of the “Farrelly Brothers” who directed comedies like Dumb and Dumber, Kingpin, and There’s Something About Mary. Never would have guessed he’d be an Oscar winner one day.


Because many on the far left are virtue signalers who get outraged recreationally.

They are upset because it has a white hero in a film about racism.

Anyone upset about it should be ignored. It was a great movie.
terapined
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February 25th, 2019 at 6:39:48 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Lots of liberals are upset about Green Book winning for some reason. I don’t get it.

I haven’t seen it so I have no strong feelings whatsoever. And I’d still like to see it.

I just think it’s interesting that it was directed by Peter Farrelly, one half of the “Farrelly Brothers” who directed comedies like Dumb and Dumber, Kingpin, and There’s Something About Mary. Never would have guessed he’d be an Oscar winner one day.




I'm ok with the win. It is what it is. People in the industry voted for this movie.
I have heard that the family of the piano player are unhappy about the inaccuracy of the movie but what movie is accurate
TigerWu
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February 25th, 2019 at 8:09:00 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob


That's how much the public hated B/W.



So, enthusiastic use of new technology equates to unbridled vitriol of old technology?

Look at all these people driving cars... that's how much they hate horses.

Hey, Evenbob... why are you using a computer to communicate? Do you really hate writing letters and making phone calls that much?

Why are you on a forum to learn about gambling? Do you really hate books that much?

Quote: MaxPen

The libs are seeing Trump's hair in the stage design. He is definitely living in their heads...lol
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/02/oscars-stage-designed-to-look-like-trumps-hair/
Personally, I don't remotely see it or any resemblance for that matter.



LOL... that article quotes TWO WHOLE TWEETS from people basically saying, "That kind of looks like Trump's hair" and Gateway Pundit melts down and thinks "teh libz are losing their minds! Hur hur hurr!" Gotta invent reasons to be outraged to keep the Trump Train running, I guess.....
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 25th, 2019 at 8:13:14 AM permalink
This was a weak year for movies, in my opinion, but somebody had to win. Movies I saw that were up for best picture were:

Bohemian Rhapsody
A Star is Born
BlacKKKlansman
The Favourite

All of them were good movies, but none of them great. If you put a gun to my head and make me vote for one, and "none of the above" weren't an option, I think I would go with BlacKKKlansman, not so much based on that movie alone, but I think Spike is overdue.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
michael99000
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aceofspadesRogerKint
February 25th, 2019 at 8:49:08 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

, but I think Spike is overdue.



Gamblers fallacy
unJon
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February 25th, 2019 at 10:36:47 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Gamblers fallacy

Unlike a roulette ball, the Academy has a memory of past winner and losers that could impact future results.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ayecarumba
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February 25th, 2019 at 10:46:11 AM permalink
Didn't Spike Lee get an "honorary" Oscar, or something like that a few years ago? I thought it was like getting a "Participation" trophy in AYSO.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
EvenBob
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February 25th, 2019 at 10:51:44 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Hey, Evenbob... why are you using a computer to communicate? Do you really hate writing letters and making phone calls that much?



OMG, I hated both of them! I never
wrote letters and would do anything
to get out of using the phone. I
hate phones so much I didn't even
get a smartphone till less than a
year ago and so far have called
someone twice with it.

F Buckminster Fuller said having a
phone is like having a rope tied to
your ankle and whenever someone
wanted you they just jerk on the
rope. He didn't have a phone either.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
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February 25th, 2019 at 11:20:18 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

OMG, I hated both of them! I never
wrote letters and would do anything
to get out of using the phone. I
hate phones so much I didn't even
get a smartphone till less than a
year ago and so far have called
someone twice with it.



Haha... I still use a flip phone. My phone bill is $10 a month.
EvenBob
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February 25th, 2019 at 11:25:39 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Haha... I still use a flip phone. My phone bill is $10 a month.



My smartphone bill is $12.50 a month.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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February 25th, 2019 at 12:11:17 PM permalink
Lots of people upset by the awards
today, what a shock. The 'best' never
get the award, it's who the academy
thinks is politically correct and 'deserves'
the award this year.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
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February 25th, 2019 at 1:12:58 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Lots of people upset by the awards
today, what a shock. The 'best' never
get the award, it's who the academy
thinks is politically correct and 'deserves'
the award this year.



It's their awards, they can dole them out however they please. The people upset by it are missing the point.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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February 25th, 2019 at 1:37:20 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

It's their awards, they can dole them out however they please. The people upset by it are missing the point.



Yes, but people want some kind of objective measure of quality and the Academy constantly fails to deliver that.

One way is to go to IMDB, look in a year and rank all the movies by the "Most Votes." Over time, that rank order of Most Votes tends to coincide closely with a public definition of Quality.

Its a bit too early for 2018 results to be terribly meaningful, but the current top six for 2018 Most Voted on IMDB is:

1. Avengers: Infinity War_____ 590,541
2. Black Panther_____ 466,873
3. Deadpool 2_____ 352,066
4. Ready Player One_____ 281,299
5. A Quiet Place_____ 278,016
6. Bohemian Rhapsody______270,329

The Rank ordering of the Oscar Nominated films is:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody_____270,329
13. A Star is Born_____194,529
23. BlacKkKlansman_____114,713
27. First Man_____99,300
32. Green Book_____90,404
34. Roma_____85,338
48. The Favourite_____73,470
80. Vice_____38,919

As the years go by, movie watchers will gravitate back to the really good movies, and the above lists will morph and change.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
terapined
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February 25th, 2019 at 2:07:30 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Yes, but people want some kind of objective measure of quality and the Academy constantly fails to deliver that.


This has nothing to with quality and everything to do with image
Its like the NAACP Image awards, they are not voting for quality, simply image.
Academy members in the film industry vote for the image Hollywood wants to present to the world
If you are looking for quality, then check out Critics Choice Awards 2019. They vote on quality, not image
ams288
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February 25th, 2019 at 2:30:03 PM permalink
I’m still confused why Glenn Close didn’t win. This was supposed to be HER year. She’s been nominated a million times but never won.

I haven’t seen The Wife (I don’t think anyone besides the critics have) so I can’t comment on her performance.

Olivia Coleman was great in The Favourite and her acceptance speech was very enjoyable.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
EvenBob
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February 25th, 2019 at 2:37:18 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

This has nothing to with quality and everything to do with image



That's what I realized in 1971 when
Whoopsie won. Which makes the
awards meaningless and useless.
It's just a big circle jerk now, it has
nothing to do with the quality
of their product.

If Mikie Moore's stupid Trump movie
hadn't been a laughable mega flop,
it would have been nominated just
because it trashed Trump.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 25th, 2019 at 2:52:54 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

5. A Quiet Place_____ 278,016



That was my favorite movie of 2018.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
unJon
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February 25th, 2019 at 3:44:27 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Yes, but people want some kind of objective measure of quality and the Academy constantly fails to deliver that.

One way is to go to IMDB, look in a year and rank all the movies by the "Most Votes." Over time, that rank order of Most Votes tends to coincide closely with a public definition of Quality.

Its a bit too early for 2018 results to be terribly meaningful, but the current top six for 2018 Most Voted on IMDB is:

1. Avengers: Infinity War_____ 590,541
2. Black Panther_____ 466,873
3. Deadpool 2_____ 352,066
4. Ready Player One_____ 281,299
5. A Quiet Place_____ 278,016
6. Bohemian Rhapsody______270,329

The Rank ordering of the Oscar Nominated films is:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody_____270,329
13. A Star is Born_____194,529
23. BlacKkKlansman_____114,713
27. First Man_____99,300
32. Green Book_____90,404
34. Roma_____85,338
48. The Favourite_____73,470
80. Vice_____38,919

As the years go by, movie watchers will gravitate back to the really good movies, and the above lists will morph and change.

I thought Black Panther was nominated?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gamerfreak
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February 25th, 2019 at 4:19:43 PM permalink
There’s no way to objectively judge film. I could link numberous movies that are judged rotten by critics that myself and many others think are fantastic.

How many people in this thread complaining about the process actually saw Green Book?
billryan
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February 25th, 2019 at 4:44:57 PM permalink
I saw Green Book and wasn't that impressed with the movie. I did think it was better than Black Panther. I suspect the Avengers movie will be better when all the dangling threads are concluded.
I haven't watched an awards show when I have choice in forty five years.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
EvenBob
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February 25th, 2019 at 5:02:14 PM permalink
Quote: billryan


I haven't watched an awards show when I have choice in forty five years.



If they have a good host, like Ricky Gervais,
I'll watch the outakes on Utube, but never
the show itself.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ams288
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March 5th, 2019 at 6:45:12 PM permalink
Tuesday night is $5 night at the local theater (and you get a free popcorn), so I went and checked out Green Book tonight.

It was fantastic. Highly enjoyable. Great performance by Viggo.

I still don’t understand the backlash by some liberals about it winning so many awards.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
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