Codingforest
Codingforest
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April 10th, 2024 at 4:32:41 PM permalink
After playing on the weekends for around 1 year, I recently lost my job due to unforseen circumstances. I am young, recently single, and have a large bankroll.

My plan is to count baccarat side bets in America. I have calculated my edge to be 2.4 units per shoe from the side bets, and will lose 0.5 units per shoe in the normal course of betting the main game (considering free hands, smaller than normal bets, etc) for a total of 1.9 units per shoe. I have a bankroll of 2000 units, which gives me a 0.2% ROR with a monte carlo simulation of 100m shoes. I will mainly play alone at night, where I could finish a shoe in 40 mins.

I also know I can go to the UK if need be, as some casinos have VERY good opportunities (far higher than 2.4 units per shoe, but with far lower max bets).

I am looking for any advice. As I see this as a more long term venture, has anyone heard of people getting backed off of baccarat side bets? (I know caesars did right as the dragon 7 was known to be countable, but haven't found info since then). Also, does anyone have any general tips or information? I am looking for casinos that deal out 7.5/8 decks and have good max bets. Unfortunately, there is very little info online. My DMs are wide open.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 10th, 2024 at 4:46:22 PM permalink
Welcome. If you are planning on an AP life, read up here on the plays people do on the machines. Add them to your baccarat plan. You’ll already be at the casino ….

You imply you can make around 2 units a shoe…. In the real world, how big is one unit, and how long does a shoe take?
DRich
DRich
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April 10th, 2024 at 6:41:07 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Welcome. If you are planning on an AP life, read up here on the plays people do on the machines. Add them to your baccarat plan. You’ll already be at the casino ….

You imply you can make around 2 units a shoe…. In the real world, how big is one unit, and how long does a shoe take?
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Obviously the time it takes for a shoe will be dependent on the number of players I used to figure 90 hands per shoe.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Codingforest
Codingforest
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April 10th, 2024 at 6:48:54 PM permalink
For baccarat, it's 83 hands per full shoe. Cutoff on average 20 cards, + avg 6.5 cards burned in the beginning = 7.5/8 decks seen. We're looking at 76-80 hands per shoe on avg. A shoe takes 40 minutes if playing alone. If playing at a full table, easily 2 hours (but you make 0.5 units more per shoe).

2 units per shoe depends on the max bet. For some casinos that can be $300, for some $50. My bankroll aims for an avg bet of $150.

For machines, I know near nothing (I can check ultimate x machines but that's about it). I'll look into it but seems like a lot of work for not too much payoff.
DRich
DRich
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April 10th, 2024 at 6:51:56 PM permalink
Quote: Codingforest

For baccarat, it's 83 hands per full shoe. Cutoff on average 20 cards, + avg 6.5 cards burned in the beginning = 7.5/8 decks seen. We're looking at 76-80 hands per shoe on avg. A shoe takes 40 minutes if playing alone. If playing at a full table, easily 2 hours (but you make 0.5 units more per shoe).

2 units per shoe depends on the max bet. For some casinos that can be $300, for some $50. My bankroll aims for an avg bet of $150.

For machines, I know near nothing (I can check ultimate x machines but that's about it). I'll look into it but seems like a lot of work for not too much payoff.
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That sounds like a decent small play if you are getting $300 an hour of profit. Will they let you play more than one hand at a time?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Codingforest
Codingforest
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April 11th, 2024 at 5:27:13 AM permalink
No more than 1 hand at a time.

300/hr sounds great, but the swings are incredible. The probability of winning after 1000 shoes (2000 hours at a full table, 1 year!) Is only around 90%. You need a huge bankroll to support it.

If you play multiple hands, that would be essentially betting 300 x number of hands every time, which my bankroll doesn't support.
MDawg
MDawg
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April 11th, 2024 at 9:28:11 AM permalink
You already seem to know that casinos don't allow only side bets in Baccarat - must make a Banker or Player bet as well. In your case since you Know Nothing and are just betting at random, Banker I assume.

At least one of the majors on the Strip, that pays 50:1 on the 3 card Bank winning 6, has for at least a few years now reduced the deck cutting off so much that you barely get 70 hands a shoe, often just in the mid 60s. This was done to keep players from counting down the specials.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Codingforest
Codingforest
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April 11th, 2024 at 4:51:17 PM permalink
You'll be surprised by what some casinos do and do not allow ;). I should in theory only bet Banker (from an EV perspective), but I do mix it up otherwise it literally gets too boring. Player also speeds up the game since the dealer doesn't have to count out 95%. It costs a small amount of EV over the long run (30-40 units over 1000 shoes, but if that's the cost to stop me from going insane...)

I think you have some bets mixed up. I ran the math on 50:1 on a 3 card banker 6, and that bet isn't worth playing. Mid 60s is absolutely disgusting though... if that is the future of baccarat, then I may have a very short career indeed. Luckily, most casinos I see still get 75-78 hands on average per shoe.
RuddyDuck
RuddyDuck
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April 12th, 2024 at 12:33:04 PM permalink
If you want any sort of longevity counting side bets, I would steer clear of chasing slot bonuses. Might as well wear a t-shirt saying "Watch Me!".
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