gizzardsofgods
• Threads: 3
• Posts: 6
Joined: Aug 15, 2023
August 15th, 2023 at 10:36:35 PM permalink
An online casino with a live dealer that offers 8-1 on ties and uses an 8 deck shoe with pretty bad penetration has a tie multiplier that occasionally pushes tie odds up anywhere from 11x to 20x.

It's streaky. Sometimes it wont activate fro 15-20 hands, then it will pop of 3xx in 10 hands. I'd guess that on average it activates about 10% of the time.

1) could this multiplier make tie a better bet than banker?

2) if banker is still a better bet in general, would it be worth counting into the deck?

I'd guess 10's favor ties, but I'm not sure about that.Also, it could be that the multiplier only activates when the tie is less likely (each card is scanned as it's deal so the software knows the exact deck composition).
ssho88
• Threads: 55
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Joined: Oct 16, 2011
August 15th, 2023 at 11:14:04 PM permalink
Quote: gizzardsofgods

An online casino with a live dealer that offers 8-1 on ties and uses an 8 deck shoe with pretty bad penetration has a tie multiplier that occasionally pushes tie odds up anywhere from 11x to 20x.

It's streaky. Sometimes it wont activate fro 15-20 hands, then it will pop of 3xx in 10 hands. I'd guess that on average it activates about 10% of the time.

1) could this multiplier make tie a better bet than banker?

2) if banker is still a better bet in general, would it be worth counting into the deck?

I'd guess 10's favor ties, but I'm not sure about that.Also, it could be that the multiplier only activates when the tie is less likely (each card is scanned as it's deal so the software knows the exact deck composition).
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Can you record 10000 hands and show us the odds of each tie odds i.e. 8x, 11x, 12x. . . . until 20x? Analysis must be based on actual collected data.
DogHand
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• Posts: 1675
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
August 16th, 2023 at 5:38:47 AM permalink
Quote: gizzardsofgods

An online casino with a live dealer that offers 8-1 on ties and uses an 8 deck shoe with pretty bad penetration has a tie multiplier that occasionally pushes tie odds up anywhere from 11x to 20x.

It's streaky. Sometimes it wont activate fro 15-20 hands, then it will pop of 3xx in 10 hands. I'd guess that on average it activates about 10% of the time.

1) could this multiplier make tie a better bet than banker?

2) if banker is still a better bet in general, would it be worth counting into the deck?

I'd guess 10's favor ties, but I'm not sure about that.Also, it could be that the multiplier only activates when the tie is less likely (each card is scanned as it's deal so the software knows the exact deck composition).
link to original post

gizzardsofgods,

Welcome to Wizard of Vegas! Great handle, by the way ;-)

According to the Wizard of Odds website:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/#eight-deck-analysis

the probability of a Tie in a full 8D shoe is 0.095156. This means that if the Tie pays about 10.51:1, then Tie is an even bet. Any multiplier higher than 10.51 makes the Tie bet +EV.

As you surmised, though, the "breakeven multiplier" varies as the shoe becomes depleted. Eliot Jacobson, who is a regular poster here under the handle "teliot", has posted a card-counting method to defeat the 9-1 Tie payout:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/beating-the-baccarat-tie-bet

Perhaps he would be willing to calculate the possible edge for higher multipliers.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
MarlenSneijder
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Joined: Aug 16, 2023
August 16th, 2023 at 6:29:48 AM permalink
The draw multiplier, which varies from 11x to 20x, can affect the profitability of baccarat bets. Usually, the tie has significantly higher odds (8:1 or 9:1) compared to the banker or player (1:1 with the deduction of the commission). Such a high reward for a draw makes it more attractive to players. If you can use a strategy that determines when the best time to bet on a draw is, the multiplier can help increase your winnings.
The decision to add a banker to the deck depends on many factors. On the one hand, the banker usually has a slight advantage over the player due to the commission he has to pay when he wins. On the other hand, a draw multiplier can create a favorable situation when the chances of winning a draw are quite high. If your strategy implies that the multiplier is activated when a draw is less likely, it can be a profitable solution. However, it is important to consider all aspects of the game, including probabilities and your ability to adapt to different situations.
Regarding your assumed advantage of 10, it may be a real impact on the game outcomes, but additional analysis of your data and game strategy is necessary to make an accurate assessment. It is also important to understand how the draw multiplier works and how it affects hands with different draw probabilities.
Remember that gambling involves an element of risk, and before making any changes to your strategy, it is important to carefully analyze all possible options and consider your personal financial capabilities.
ssho88
• Threads: 55
• Posts: 669
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
August 16th, 2023 at 7:56:10 PM permalink
Quote: MarlenSneijder

The draw multiplier, which varies from 11x to 20x, can affect the profitability of baccarat bets. Usually, the tie has significantly higher odds (8:1 or 9:1) compared to the banker or player (1:1 with the deduction of the commission). Such a high reward for a draw makes it more attractive to players. If you can use a strategy that determines when the best time to bet on a draw is, the multiplier can help increase your winnings.
The decision to add a banker to the deck depends on many factors. On the one hand, the banker usually has a slight advantage over the player due to the commission he has to pay when he wins. On the other hand, a draw multiplier can create a favorable situation when the chances of winning a draw are quite high. If your strategy implies that the multiplier is activated when a draw is less likely, it can be a profitable solution. However, it is important to consider all aspects of the game, including probabilities and your ability to adapt to different situations.
Regarding your assumed advantage of 10, it may be a real impact on the game outcomes, but additional analysis of your data and game strategy is necessary to make an accurate assessment. It is also important to understand how the draw multiplier works and how it affects hands with different draw probabilities.
Remember that gambling involves an element of risk, and before making any changes to your strategy, it is important to carefully analyze all possible options and consider your personal financial capabilities.
link to original post

It's pointless to keep guessing, just provide the requested data, someone will analyse it and give you the correct strategy.

BTW, what is the penetration? 7/8 ?
gordonm888
Administrator
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Joined: Feb 18, 2015
August 16th, 2023 at 8:14:06 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Quote: MarlenSneijder

The draw multiplier, which varies from 11x to 20x, can affect the profitability of baccarat bets. Usually, the tie has significantly higher odds (8:1 or 9:1) compared to the banker or player (1:1 with the deduction of the commission). Such a high reward for a draw makes it more attractive to players. If you can use a strategy that determines when the best time to bet on a draw is, the multiplier can help increase your winnings.
The decision to add a banker to the deck depends on many factors. On the one hand, the banker usually has a slight advantage over the player due to the commission he has to pay when he wins. On the other hand, a draw multiplier can create a favorable situation when the chances of winning a draw are quite high. If your strategy implies that the multiplier is activated when a draw is less likely, it can be a profitable solution. However, it is important to consider all aspects of the game, including probabilities and your ability to adapt to different situations.
Regarding your assumed advantage of 10, it may be a real impact on the game outcomes, but additional analysis of your data and game strategy is necessary to make an accurate assessment. It is also important to understand how the draw multiplier works and how it affects hands with different draw probabilities.
Remember that gambling involves an element of risk, and before making any changes to your strategy, it is important to carefully analyze all possible options and consider your personal financial capabilities.
link to original post

It's pointless to keep guessing, just provide the requested data, someone will analyse it and give you the correct strategy.

BTW, what is the penetration? 7/8 ?
link to original post

ssho88, MarlenSneijder sounds like he may be an AI bot. We will continue to monitor.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
ssho88
• Threads: 55
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Joined: Oct 16, 2011
August 16th, 2023 at 8:47:53 PM permalink
gordonm888, thanks for reminding.
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