pappyman
pappyman
Joined: Mar 4, 2015
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March 5th, 2019 at 9:19:22 AM permalink
I have read the book Beat Blackjack Now by Frank Scoblete who mentions that Speed Count is the most effective card counting system yet I have not heard of it mentioned in any other book or website. Has its name been changed or have other systems emerged that are better? I would like to dedicate my time to studying the best card counting system based on the limited time I have a to spend in the casinos. Can you please let me know which system would be the optimal to get the most bang out of my buck? I understand this depends on many factors but I would appreciate any advice anyone may have on this. Thank you.
billryan
billryan
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Minty
March 5th, 2019 at 9:55:31 AM permalink
If you ask 20 pros you might get 20 different answers but speed count won't be one. It's a weak system designed to take money from people unwilling to put in the time needed to truly beat the game.
I personally found Fred Renzeys KISS system to work best for me. It's imbalanced which means you don't need to calculate the true count, and is easily expandable so as you get proficient. There are more efficient counts but I don't think the added complexity adds much value.
I would read up on unbalanced counts and pick one. KO is great, especially if you use Danny Dravots tables.
There are some very complicated counts, but you can learn them later. Keep it simple.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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March 5th, 2019 at 2:21:20 PM permalink
The count you use, as long as it's not something like the Speed count, will ALL GET THE MONEY. Too many newer players, and I used to be one of them when I first started out, waste their precious time figuring out which count system 'is the best' until they eventually realize it just doesn't matter all that much. Just pick a count you like and one you can do accurately. Start with HiLo and once you see how tough the game is to beat and you still want to continue and try to make money at this, then upgrade to Halves, as it's a natural step up from HiLo with many of the same playing deviation numbers as well as many of the similar tags other than the 2, 5, 7, and 9 that have an added decimal to it for better accuracy as HiLo overestimates the value of the 2 and underestimates the values of the 5, 7, and 9.

There is one caveat though. Unless you plan on playing thousands of hours in your career,in which 99% of players never even get to 100 before they decide to quit, then there is no point in learning a higher level system such as a Level 2 or Level 3 count of Zen or Halves, which will eek out another 5-10% in profit. If you plan to ever go full time, then by all means grab that extra 5-10% profit as that can add up especially if you're betting big, but in the beginning stages, I suggest you focus on more important aspects of the game such as the value of penetration, bankroll management, risk of ruin, N0, favorable rules, rounds per hour, backcounting, wonging out, etc. These are much more important aspects of the game that will be your biggest indicators of whether you will succeed or not in the early stages. As you move up in stakes, you can add 'heat' as an important aspect to be aware of as that can limit your playing time and longevity.

Also it's important to add, since you will likely be red chipping, do NOT burn out your face at low stakes and get in the database at small sweat shops as you'll just be hurting your future career by doing so if you ever plan to play green or black. Dont be fooled into EVER giving up your ID to a shift manager who comes out of no where and asks to see your ID to see if you're 21. You will know when it's a sincere gesture and when it's 'heat'. By handing over your ID, you run the risk of being entered into OSN. Being in the database isn't the end of the world, but nothing good can come from it and you will have to play a lot more 'unrated', which you should be doing anyway as your stakes increase and even as a red chipper since the comps aren't worth it at blackjack and no reason to burn up your name at low stakes. Playing unrated at higher levels might attract heat, but just keep sessions short and you should be fine. Red chipping unrated, they won't bother you at all, so it's preferable to not ever give up your name, just don't be fooled into giving up your ID EVER or the whole time of playing unrated was for nothing. With that being said, dont be worry about heat either, play as aggressive as possible, but just avoid any of the small sweaty chains that sweat the money.

My advice would be to not even play right now, but instead I would buy CVCX and Casino Verite software to practice at home and only go on weekends to get a 'feel' for the casino environment and keeping an accurate count more so than actually caring about winning. You should not care about making money at this point in time. Good luck.
Last edited by: ZenKinG on Mar 5, 2019
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
DRich
DRich
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March 5th, 2019 at 3:31:27 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG



My advice would be to not even play right now, but instead I would buy CVCX and Casino Verite software to practice at home and only go on weekends to get a 'feel' for the casino environment and keeping an accurate count more so than actually caring about winning. You should not care about making money at this point in time. Good luck.



Good advice. Most people expect positive results too quickly. Understand CVCX and put in at least 100 hours counting cards at your house before you even begin to play. Get to the point where counting a deck at your house is so easy that it is rote. Then learn to do it as quick as possible with nearly perfect results. Once you are under 25 seconds you are probably good to go.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
BlackjackGuy123
BlackjackGuy123
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March 5th, 2019 at 7:13:00 PM permalink
Go with hi lo, it is a nice balance of power and simplicity.
MissDealing614
MissDealing614
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August 8th, 2020 at 6:03:46 AM permalink
The hardest one you can master. Some are to indept with little upside. Some are to simple amd basically make it a coin flip. There is a ton but the 1 you can master but is still challenging enough is the best for you don't waste on the easiest amd don't start with a hard one.
kewlj
kewlj
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August 8th, 2020 at 8:45:50 AM permalink
2 words: diminishing returns.

I play a level 1 count, Hi-lo. I played a level 2 count (RPC) for about 18 months a while back. There is a never-ending debate among card counters about just how much gain is really seen in moving up from level 1 to level 2. Whatever side of that debate you fall, moving up any higher, and you really get into diminishing returns and just the slightest increase in mistake rate and you can wipe out or even more than wipe out any "extra" gain.

If you are REALLY looking to increase your win rate, there are techniques you can employ that make a much greater impact than the diminishing returns of higher counts. Things that add Dollars, where higher counts add pennies.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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August 8th, 2020 at 8:53:00 PM permalink
Modern Blackjack - Page 119
Chapter Plus Five - Heat
(So you counters don't hang around for more than 45 minutes at any casino? OMG!)
https://www.qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage119.htm
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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August 8th, 2020 at 10:09:41 PM permalink
Weak Systems
https://www.qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage197.htm
Over the last few years, several simplistic, starter systems have been devised. The claim is that you can learn to beat the casinos with little effort. I believe these strategies to be every bit as dangerous as progression systems and other gambling scams without proper warnings.

I once made a post titled, “Which is better, negative expectation or positive expectation?” No, it’s not a trick question. There have been many statements from those who consider this a no-brainer — that any positive expectation, any advantage over the house, no matter how small, is better than no advantage. Like many other Blackjack questions, the correct answer to this question is — it depends. It depends on your goals, your situation, and most importantly, what you need to do to get that positive expectation.

Let me provide an example. You visit Las Vegas once or twice a year. You like to play Blackjack and plan to play 1,000 hands. You are not willing to learn a simple count strategy for an occasional trip. You would like to win of course, but it is more important that you do not exhaust your budget before your trip ends and wind up walking the Las Vegas Strip waiting for the trip to end. Your budget is $500 and you will play the $5 tables. The sims are for six decks, 4.5 out of 6 decks dealt, S17, DAS, four players. The two strategies compared are one of the new simplistic systems that I will call WS, using optimized bets and 1-16 spread versus Basic Strategy flat-betting (i.e., also optimized bets).

· WS (perfectly played) will win 39.7% of the trips and go bankrupt 54.5% of the trips.

· Basic Strategy will win 45.1% of the trips and go bankrupt 0.9% of the trips.

So using WS, you will bust before the end of the trip half of the time instead of 1 out of 100 with Basic Strategy. In addition, you will actually end up a winner more often with BS. In the long run, WS will win more (about $95 a trip more). But if your goal is to make it through the trip without busting and having to leave the casino, the negative expectation strategy is a better match. And, this assumes that you actually managed to learn WS perfectly.

Now some people will say that the comparison should force the average bets to be the same. I disagree. The problem with weak counts is that they force a large spread. And, unless you want to play with silver dollars, the average bet can be forced higher. However, I ran a sim with the same average bet anyhow. In this sim, the Basic Strategy player bets $15 a hand.

· WS (perfectly played) will win 39.7% of the trips and go bankrupt 54.5% of the trips.

· Basic Strategy will win 41.9% of the trips and go bankrupt 40.0% of the trips.

The Basic Strategy player is still bankrupting less often and winning more often, even though he is betting $15 a hand, while the WS player bets $5 for most hands.
kewlj
kewlj
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ChumpChange
August 8th, 2020 at 10:30:13 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange



· WS (perfectly played) will win 39.7% of the trips and go bankrupt 54.5% of the trips.

· Basic Strategy will win 45.1% of the trips and go bankrupt 0.9% of the trips.



You are comparing apples to oranges. One is a long term winning strategy (+EV), while the other a long-term (-EV) losing strategy.

As for your question or statement (not sure which) in the previous post, the days of sitting down at a table and card counting with a +EV strategy for hours on end are gone. That was something from sometime last century. Players like me that started our careers in a year that begins with a 2, never really got to experience that "play-all" approach playing the same table for hours on end. We have always had to incorporate some sort of short session, move around approach to achieve any kind of longevity.

I have seen that 45 minutes to an hour number mentioned many times, but there really is no one approach or time period set in stone. What you need to do is avoid the "tell" of retreating back to a small bet at the shuffle after placing max bet or larger bets the previous shoe. THAT is the big tell. Not the raising of bets. All sorts of players raise bets. Players chasing losses, Players parlaying wins, or chipping up during winning periods. Progression bettors (who casinos love for good reason). Again the big tell is retreating backwards at the new shuffle.

I avoid that huge tell, by making that one of my exit triggers. I exit at the shuffle after having placed my max bet or big bet the previous shoe. Another exit triggers is a predetermined negative count and if neither of these triggers is met, I will adhere to the 45 minutes to an hour rule, just so I don't show too much information in one setting.

These things ARE the way you achieve longevity in today's blackjack world. It frustrates a lot of older players, who were able to do that play-all, camp out at one table thing in the 80's and 90's, but welcome to the 21st century. lol

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