Poll

6 votes (85.71%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (28.57%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (28.57%)

7 members have voted

GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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September 8th, 2018 at 8:05:59 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Thx GWAE,
No reason. Just curious about AP attitudes to such small offers. Mathematically it was a done deal, except that I wanted to use low individual wagers which would mean it took me a few hours (more recreation, less variance).
AP wise, I'm quite a small fish and this is what most proper AP's would surely consider to be peanuts. I guess, I sort of wondered if the big boy AP's would give this trivial offer a second glance.
Sometimes the offers I see are hugely +EV but need to accept insane variance to get the max from them. (E.g. 20% loss rebate offer) So, some offers I'd walk away from myself because I'm chicken.



Obviously an ap that makes a living doing it wont do something that will net 1.10 an hour. As long as the hourly is what they desire then they will do it
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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September 8th, 2018 at 9:19:50 AM permalink
I think freeplay offers are important to keeping your head above water in the gambling hobby.

The math is only slightly positive EV -because the casino can do math and they designed their offer that way. But, it is positive EV -so if you enjoy the gambling then do it. I would.

And since you believe that accepting a freeplay offer may have influence on whether you receive further offers, then a second time: YES.
Sometimes, people are just a bottomless mystery. And, after all, this is just a sh*tty little forum in the sun-less backwaters of the online world.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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September 8th, 2018 at 10:42:14 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

id do the 10000, 3000, crap it wouldnt matter, but i need the JD for sure

Even for the 10000 playthrough promo, I only bought in with 500 and though it took several hours, my balance only fell below 200 briefly. Doing the 10000 promo, I did have to stop and wonder how it would feel if it went badly and whether I'd have the balls to keep playing on into a big loss. ( I would )

Nooooo to the JD this time, though i was playing into the wee small hours. I made two stupid mouse click errors: Once standing on a hard 9 and once hitting on 8,8. Stupidly, I won both hands, though only £10 on each. Embarrassing, but lucky, lucky.

Tonight is my last time on the 3000 promo. I missed out on the first day it ran. Hoping they throw a big promo at me again this weekend. Please don't let it be a 20% loss rebate!

They just offered me a 10% loss rebate up to £20 with 20x playthrough. For that I have to install and use a mobile App.... I don't want to have a casino in my pocket 24/7 so I might not be taking them up on that. I Know that one is +EV, but I also know what addiction feels like.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
standbymyman
standbymyman
Joined: Feb 13, 2015
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 139
September 10th, 2018 at 9:38:21 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Just garnering opinions about one of my casinos latest offers.
Here's the deal. It runs for 5 consecutive days and is at a trusted online casino.

Quote: online casino

. . . stake a minimum of £2,000 cash in Live Casino to receive £50 bonus to play in Live Casino.
The bonus will be awarded instantly after customer has staked £2,000 cash or more.
The maximum bonus that can be claimed daily is £50.
The bonus can be spent only in Live Casino.
...
Bonuses will be credited as a non-withdrawable bonus with twenty times (x20) wager requirements. Customers have 24 hours from the time they opted in to the daily promotion to complete the qualification criteria and 4 days from the time the bonus is added to their account to fulfil any wagering requirements before the bonus expires and the remaining bonus balance is forfeited.
Once you have claimed this Bonus, you will only be permitted to withdraw any winnings contained in your Bonus Balance once the Wagering Requirements have been met. ( or forfeit the bonus )"



I've run the bonus three times this week, so far and it doesn't have any nasty terms like reduced contribution to play-through. I simply played £10 per hand Blackjack* with a starting buy in of £300 and after 90 minutes or so had wagered £2000 and still had approximately my original £300 + the £50 bonus. 45 mins or so later, I'd wagered a total of another £1000 and the bonus became withdrawable. Each time, a roller coaster ride of bankroll.

As it happened, on each day, I survived with only a modest buy-in and ended up with a profit. In terms of hourly wage it didn't cost in, I guess, and I'd exposed myself to massive variance, but what the heck. Part of my reason for 'engaging' with this offer is that the 'engagement' seems to encourage them to keep making other good offers to me.

Here's my estimate of its daily value...

Expected outcome at £10 per hand flat betting based on 2 standard deviations (95% probability) ...
AvgBet = £10
OriginalSD = 10*1.15 = £11.50

EV(300 hands) = (300*10)*(-0.0072) = -£21.60
EV after bonus = £50.00 - £21.60 = £38.40
SD(300 hands) = Sqrt(300) * 11.50 = £199.19...
2SD = £398

Thus, with 95% certainty, 300 hands and about 3 hours, flat betting £10 at a .72% HE blackjack game... I can expect to gain £38.+/- £398
Oh... And there's £3 worth of comp points to be added for all that play making it £41+/- £398 for each of 5 days

So, bearing in mind that I find the game recreational and not a chore and that 'engaging' these offers keeps them flowing, how insane am I to risk so much to variance?

* I do confess that a few times I did 10, 20, 30 progressive which massively increased my variance
[edit]I had my maths wrong. 300 hands, Not 3000 so correcting calcs[/edit].






"TRUSTED ONLINE CASINO"...…………sure!
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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September 10th, 2018 at 12:32:23 PM permalink
Quote: standbymyman

Quote: OnceDear



"TRUSTED ONLINE CASINO"...…………sure!



Trusted by me.

There are two main chains of bricks and mortar casinos here in the UK: Gentings and Grosvenor. The online casino I use is run by Grosvenor. I've been their customer about 4 or 5 years and their service has been impeccable. Their games ( or at least the ones I play ) have low house edge and my results to date are reflective of that edge. Some online gaffs have outrageous terms, shady practices and lax regulation. Grosvenor has good terms, good live chat and phone support and tight European regulation. They also offer me good loyalty bonuses and have let me cash out many thousands over my time with them.
Their doors are closed to US customers, but if they ever become available to you, I'd comfortably recommend them.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.

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