Fair Value of Free Play

I expect to be travelling for the next 3 months. During that time, I expect I will be unable to use my weekly free slot play from a local tribal place.

I know exactly how much free slot play they will send me during this time (I know the player's club structure, when they update the mailer offers, etc).

Now, a lot of people just give their card to a friend, and have the friend play off what they can in their absence. I have a person who is possibly interested in buying it from me.

I know how to calculate the EV of the free play. I know that the casino will frown on selling it (or buying it), but I also know that they're fairly tolerant so long as it's only one or two player's cards, not dozens of player's cards.

So... For a given amount of EV, what's a fair market value?

Does the FMV change based on the customer? (The interested party is a degen, not an AP.)


I understand that some people with good insight on this might choose to respond privately, and welcome your PM's.

I use to see people offer slightly less than 50% for most free bet promos where the casino takes away the coupon. So match bet of 45 would be sold for 20. If you bet 45 and use your coupon, your pay on the win is 90. Subtract 20 from a 45 win and you get an extra 25 on a 45 bet.

Everybody is happy. Problem was when your bankroll was 100. That match play was a death trap.

IMO,

Would your degen friend be playing anyway? If he's going to be playing anyway [and assuming he'd expect to play that amount off in a normal session of play]...then as close to 100% is fair. If he's not going to play anyway, then it really depends on what it'd cost him to go out there, if he'd want to go [it might be a good excuse for him to go]. Also depends on the amount. I'd say 90% is a fair price if he's going to play anyway. 80% if he isn't. If it's less than $50, then 50-60% would be fair.

Since I do this with friends my deal is this: play my free play through once and split the winnings with me. The play is limited to full pay bonus video poker or Jacks or Better or another full pay game, and since the friend gets back about 90% on the free play I usually get back about 45% of the value of the free play. I would not ask for up front money since I know these folks.

A stranger is a different situation.

Quote: RS

IMO,

Would your degen friend be playing anyway?

Yes. Degen is getting the exact same offers. This is doubling their weekly mailer machine play EV, which they are already there using.

Interesting thought that a smaller total value is worth a lower percentage price.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Since I do this with friends my deal is this: play my free play through once and split the winnings with me.

Yeah, this person is well known to me (home address, phone on speed dial, could probably crash on their couch for a few days on 2 hours notice), but I fully expect that they would run through the free play and then lose it all back. They'll enjoy it, of course, but splitting $0 isn't what I have in mind - I may as well just hang onto my player's card.

I believe that given the chance, this would get played off on an 88% RTP slot. Best in the house is 98.4% JoB (9/5), but the denom is too high to be worthwhile to monetize this offer.

Situations where I have purchased guaranteed FP I have paid 50%. Match plays I have paid 25%.
If a friend were to ask me to play their FP would do so at no charge if I was going anyway. If they wanted to straight up sell it, I would pay 80%.

Quote: MaxPen

Situations where I have purchased guaranteed FP I have paid 50%. Match plays I have paid 25%.
If a friend were to ask me to play their FP would do so at no charge if I was going anyway. If they wanted to straight up sell it, I would pay 80%.

I have picked up Free Play for other people at rates of 10-25% of actual return predicated mainly on how much Free Play there was to pick up. Personally, I look at it in terms of exposure of using the cards of other people, and then there is still a consideration of time, even if I am going to be there, anyway. The less Free Play that there is to pick up, the greater the percentage that I would typically charge because I don't think the exposure changes very much.

In terms of actually buying Free Play, I would probably be inclined to buy it at 75-85% of face value, again, depending on how much there is. The greater the amount of Free Play, the more likely I am to see a positive return on it, (in terms of probability/Variance) so I would be willing to offer a greater percentage for a larger amount of Free Play.

If he's a friend, and he is going anyways, he should do it for free. Unfortunately you mentioned he's a degenerate. That sucks to have a degenerate friend when you're a value player. You just want to shake the F out of guys like that.

Is your free play going to cause him to gamble more, as if it's just free money or an excuse to play more than normal?

Does he understand the value of free play? If he can't control himself , other than entertainment value, the free play is worthless to him. He can't afford to give you what's fair if he's just going to donk it all off.

There's no hard rule when dealing with free play. Every situation is different. Location seems to factor in. LV FP is worth usually worth more than most places.

Did you factor in EV? If they suddenly sent you 25% less in FP would you still have an advantage? If so,
I would ask him to give you 75% of the face value upfront if doing so leaves you with positive EV.

I offered AOS $4000 for his $5000 in free play. On their radio show Bob and Richard upped it to $4100.

Free play is pretty close to cash. I'd say 80% at the least.

The total amount is important too. How much?

Quote: teddys

The total amount is important too. How much?

$1200 total.

Quote: Dieter

$1200 total.

Yeah, that's a good amount. So I think $1000 would be a fine deal if you can get that. But really, it is worth whatever you guys can agree upon. There is no "fair" value for free play. It is kind of like buying and selling airline miles (which I've done). Price is hard to set in an illiquid market.

Quote: teddys

I think $1000 would be a fine deal if you can get that.

Yeah. I wasn't jumping on their offer of $0, and they weren't jumping on my offer of more than $0.

Also trying to build a better relationship here - would like them to ride along on longer trips, to defray costs.