the death of the DVD

Everyone is predicting that the DVD format is on its way out. Studio shipments of DVDs fell 43 percent in 2010. The conventional wisdom blames the sales decline on: 1) video on demand, 2) videogames, and 3) internet surfing.

Netflix has seen the writing on the wall, and this week the company announced it was splitting itself into 2 divisions. Their DVD mail rental business will be renamed Quikster and their video streaming division will retain the name Netflix. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings put it this way: "For the past five years, my greatest fear at Netflix has been that we wouldn't make the leap from success in DVDs to success in streaming. Most companies that are great at something - like AOL dialup or Borders bookstores - do not become great at new things people want (streaming for us) because they are afraid to hurt their initial business. Eventually these companies realize their error of not focusing enough on the new thing, and then the company fights desperately and hopelessly to recover. Companies rarely die from moving too fast, and they frequently die from moving too slowly."

I've used Netflix's streaming service, and it is wonderfully convenient. The problem is that the selection of titles available for instant streaming sucks. If you're looking for re-runs of Kim Kardashian's reality TV show, you'll be delighted with Netflix instant. But if you're looking for great cinema (Hitchcock, Kubrick, Scorsese, Spielberg, etc.) you'll be disappointed. This lousy selection isn't really Netflix's fault. The problem is that the studios don't stand to make much profit from the all-you-can eat buffet of Netflix streaming. They prefer a la carte pricing with fat profit margins.

In many areas of the economy, the cheapest product wins. But not always. I could rent a DVD of Matt Damon's recent movie The Adjustment Bureau for $1 at Redbox. Or I could stream it for $4 from iTunes or Amazon. The difference is negligible enough that most folks would rather pay the extra $3 for the convenience of not having to leave their living room. But I live less than half a mile from a 7-11 store with a Redbox, and the trip offers me the opportunity to stock up on movie snacks and drink, items that iTunes can't sell me. So I'm still a fan of DVDs. (I might feel differently if it was January and I was living in Minneapolis.)

So how about some predictions: how long before DVDs are as extinct as vinyl records and 8-track tapes? 10 years? 20 years? Will you miss them? I will.

The expansion of HD in the form of Blu Ray will kill DVD's first, in the same manner that MP3 killed CD's. BD players used to be $300+; you can now buy them in grocery stores for less than $90. No one is going to buy dvd players when you can get a HD player for your HD TV. As most dvd players are only built to last 5 years or less, I think we will see BD overwhelmingly dominate DVD in less than 7 years.

Will streaming HD replace BD as quickly? I don't know. There will always be a segment of the population that will not pay extra for high speed internet. I think it really depends on the growth of the 4G, 5G, 99G infrastructure, and the privacy protection offered by wireless streaming services. Can they price themselves competitively? Redbox killed Blockbuster.

I thought Netflix killed blockbuster

I'm still buying VHS for my movie collection, they're
just so damn cheap on Amazon. Old movies only.

Quote: NicksGamingStuff

I thought Netflix killed blockbuster

Blockbuster adopted the Netflix model that also allowed folks to return dvd's in stores. It helped them hang on, but Redbox cut the legs out from under both of them by offering the same DVD for only $1.

Quote: reno

So how about some predictions: how long before DVDs are as extinct as vinyl records and 8-track tapes? 10 years? 20 years? Will you miss them? I will.

I think you need to distinguish the DVD rental market from the DVD sales market. Personally, I have found that many of the DVD's I rent from redbox are scratched up. It is extremely annoying to watch 3/4 of a movie and then you can't finish it. There will always be a segment of the market that likes to own something tangible.

Ultimately, the problem Netflix has is that the post office is chewing up much of their profit. It would be cheaper for them to subsidize the purchase of home equipment (with free months of rentals) then to keep on paying postal fees for years. I would say that they will phase out that part of the business in five years.

But I think there will be DVD's in 20 years.

Quote: EvenBob

I'm still buying VHS for my movie collection, they're
just so damn cheap on Amazon. Old movies only.

Tell me about it. 10 years ago I made a living selling VHS on Ebay. 5 years ago I was on Amazon, Cd's Dvd's and books. Still on Amazon , forget cd's, forget dvd's, and book are not far behind. The times, they are a changing. Horse race tracks are either racinos,
ghost towns, or a new shopping center. Atlantic City is fading fast. and Las Vegas ????

Quote: buzzpaff

forget cd's, forget dvd's,

There will always be hard copies of some form, and
DVD's are it right now. They will eventually become
more compact, but they're here to stay.

Thanks Bob Now tell me what to do with my cds, cassettes and 8 tracks. And do you know where I can get that little plastic ring so I can play me 45's on my Victrola? LOL

Thanks Bob Now tell me what to do with my cds, cassettes and 8 tracks. And do you know where I can get that little plastic ring so I can play me 45's on my Victrola? LOL

Quote: buzzpaff

Thanks Bob Now tell me what to do with my cds, cassettes and 8 tracks. LOL

The players are still available, stock up. I have
3 VHS players.

Even worse Bob I have 3 VHS tape rewinders LOL

Quote: buzzpaff

. Horse race tracks are...a new shopping center.

Are you talking about Tanforan out in San Bruno, CA?

I still have a box of Beta tapes from '84 and a beta player I keep dragging around every time I move. Someday, it'll be worth about $100 to someone with home movies like mine but has no player. Did I say $100? I meant $130. In about 2021. By then gas'll be $9. And that guy'll have to come to me. Coz I'll have the player. Beeeyotch.

Quote: zippyboy

I still have a box of Beta tapes from '84 .

I bought my first VHS player in '83, that boat
anchor RCA that cost $1200. It all manual, did
almost nothing, but it was magical. I set it to
record and when I got home from work, I
could watch shows I missed.

Sweet take it to the antiques road show

In 1983 I had to help my neighbor set his VCR for each tv station. he also paid $1200. Me, I could not afford one. Not after paying $800 for a microwave oven. Which I returned as it took longer to cook a meal in that damn thing. LOL

I'm not about to throw out my modest collection of TV series box sets on DVD just because they're now available in another format. Nor am I about to pay again for them. I expect I'll buy a Blue Ray home theater next year, but it has to be backwards compatible with my existing DVDs. Depending on the quality of online content from Netflix Mexico and any others that may ape it, I may find a way to hook up the PC to the TV to watch some content.

BTW for the moment Blockbuster is alive and well down here. There's oe not a mile from my huose, though I haven't had time to even rent a movie in the past two years. More interesting, Blockbuster actually killed an existing video rental business called Videocentro, which in turn had killed the small video rental places. "Think of it as evolution in action," Larry Niven in one of his lesser known novels.

Quote: buzzpaff

Tell me about it. 10 years ago I made a living selling VHS on Ebay. 5 years ago I was on Amazon, Cd's Dvd's and books. Still on Amazon , forget cd's, forget dvd's, and book are not far behind. The times, they are a changing. Horse race tracks are either racinos,
ghost towns, or a new shopping center. Atlantic City is fading fast. and Las Vegas ????

As long as DVDs (well, Blu-Ray, and whatever will replace it - probably read-only SDHCs once they're cheap enough) provide things you normally can't get with the online/On Demand version (e.g. deleted scenes; commentaries), there will be a market for them.

Are there that many horse racing tracks that are doing that badly? California does seem to have its share of problems (Bay Meadows torn down; Vallejo no longer holds racing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the only reason the track is still there is so they can have betting on off-track races (about as close to a racino as you're going to get in the state)), but I think that's mainly because there's no "outside interest" in California racing ever since the mandated switch to Polytrack.

As for Vegas/AC, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the reason one is fading faster than the other is, Vegas has sports betting while AC doesn't.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Are there that many horse racing tracks that are doing that badly?

Horse racing satisfied two emotional needs of the people: A tie to the American Frontier / Wild West, and a method to scratch the gambling itch.

The Frontier tie faded along with the Western genre of movies and TV, and the itch can be scratched more easily elsewhere.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

As for Vegas/AC, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the reason one is fading faster than the other is, Vegas has sports betting while AC doesn't.

Nope. Sports betting is only a very small segment of the Vegas gambling business

The only things AC had that Vegas didn't was an ocean, and being closer to people East of the Mississippi. If the travel / hotel costs were the same, most people preferred Vegas. Nowadays, most people just go to the joint nearby.

Universal Studios has canceled their plans to charge Comcast subscribers $59.99 to view the new Ben Stiller/Eddie Murphy movie on-demand. If Universal really thinks that people will pay $59.99 to view one movie on-demand, the DVD will be around forever.

Quote: reno

Universal Studios has canceled their plans to charge Comcast subscribers $59.99 to view the new Ben Stiller/Eddie Murphy movie on-demand. If Universal really thinks that people will pay $59.99 to view one movie on-demand, the DVD will be around forever.

I'm surprised. The original business model was to release a movie 10-12 weeks after the theater release for $30. I don't think that $60 release should threaten theaters very much since almost no one is going to pay that much (especially for Eddie Murphy movie).

I suspect that movie theaters are boycotting based on general principle. They feel that once studios have done it one time, studios will keep tinkering with the formula (price and time) until they get it correct.

Quote: zippyboy

I still have a box of Beta tapes from '84 and a beta player I keep dragging around every time I move. Someday, it'll be worth about $100 to someone with home movies like mine but has no player. Did I say $100? I meant $130. In about 2021. By then gas'll be $9. And that guy'll have to come to me. Coz I'll have the player. Beeeyotch.

Take it to the Pawn Stars now, they may offer $10.