Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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May 4th, 2011 at 9:42:44 PM permalink
I checked the census bureau's latest demographic estimates for China.

China is now expected to grow to only 4.37% above it's current level before the population begins to decrease. It will never surpass, 1.400 billion.

Europe is expected to grow the following amount before population begins to decrease
Northern : 8.29% [immigration should surpass natural increase in 5 years]
Southern : 4.08%
Western : 1.06%
Eastern : Peaked in 1992
Europe as a whole : 0.017%

Principal Countries in UN definition of 4 parts of Europe
North: United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Ireland ...
South: Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Serbia ...
West: Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg ...
East: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, ...

Mexico will never surpass 150 million.
USA is expected to grow 41% by the year 2050 and then on to more than twice it's current size by the end of the century.

Chinese mother of the future: Clean you plate because some kid in America would love to have that food!
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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March 24th, 2012 at 9:35:09 PM permalink
In anticipation of the International Monetary Fund releasing it's predictions in April, I thought I would revive this thread from last year.

To briefly summarize, the headline in April 2011 read:

IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end
Commentary: China’s economy will surpass the U.S. in 2016

My comment was that it was hardly a bombshell. The IMF had been releasing reports twice a year for years that could be extrapolated to the year 2016. The only difference was that last year's report actually included the the year 2016 in the table.

I would like to note that the IMF predictions for GDP growth are not quite as rosy as those of the President's Budget (released in February). The new IMF predictions will be out in April will include 2017.

Year Pres. Budg $billions IMF $billions Difference $billions
2012 $15,602 $15,495 -$106
2013 $16,335 $15,991 -$344
2014 $17,156 $16,623 -$532
2015 $18,178 $17,399 -$779
2016 $19,261 $18,251 -$1,010
2017 $20,369

While a trillion dollars in GDP out of $18 or $19 trillion doesn't seem like very much, in the past we have seen the overpredicting GDP has ended up having terrible consequences on the government deficit. One more reason to worry (as if we needed that).

Any guesses as to the IMF report next month? Will the year when China passes the USA still be 2016? Or will it move forward or backwards one year?

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