Odds of solar storm

...destroying your electronics? Low?

Quote:

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — An unusually strong solar storm could produce northern lights in the U.S. this weekend and potentially disrupt power and communications.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a rare severe geomagnetic storm warning when a solar outburst reached Earth on Friday afternoon, hours sooner than anticipated. The effects were due to last through the weekend and possibly into next week.

NOAA alerted operators of power plants and spacecraft in orbit to take precautions, as well as the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

“For most people here on planet Earth, they won’t have to do anything,” said Rob Steenburgh, a scientist with NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

AP AUDIO: Strong solar storm could disrupt communications and produce northern lights in US
AP correspondent Shelley Adler reports a solar storm may have an effect on the U.S.

The storm could produce northern lights as far south in the U.S. as Alabama and Northern California, according to NOAA. But it was hard to predict and experts stressed it would not be the dramatic curtains of color normally associated with the northern lights, but more like splashes of greenish hues.

“That’s really the gift from space weather — the aurora,” said Steenburgh. He and his colleagues said the best aurora views may come from phone cameras, which are better at capturing light than the naked eye.

Long video
GRID DOWN CARRINGTON EVENT THIS WEEKEND??? / 6 POWERFUL SOLAR STORMS TO HIT EARTH THIS WEEKEND - Wages World


It looks like radio blackouts are likely where the sun shines when these pulses hit and those blackouts or fadeouts could last an hour or two. I forget what frequencies they affect but I seem to remember 25 Mhz on down, so the whole AM band and other bands like the Marine band and shortwave band. I think the airport band is above the FM band so they may not be affected. Low TV channels below channel 4 or 5 may be affected. There's been plenty of radio blackouts this year, just in other countries and not reported here. I don't think it's going to affect your wi-fi or 5G.
The sunspot shown in this video is getting to be Carrington Event size and the background radiation from all these sunspots is getting quite high so most flares this week are X-Class flares which could cause radio blackouts. When the auroras are getting as far south as Alabama or Florida, it's very serious. This solar storm is rated a strong G3 or a weak G4 and those descriptions are touched on in the video. But the stage is set for more flares and solar events to become more severe and it has only been getting worse all year.

Now you're playing in my backyard. While I am not an astrophysicist, my late brother was, and I was the one who introduced him to this fascinating field of solar geomagnetic storms.

If you want a non-hysterical account of what's going on, go to SpaceWeather.com. The website is run by a real solar astrophysicist, and all of the posts are human-generated.

BTW, the first CME has already hit, and has triggered a G4 Geomatnetic storm. So, it's on right now. What's the predicted auroral coverage right now? I have never seen a map this huge in a long time.

Glom all over the data here: Space Weather Prediction Center.

Radio blackouts begin only when solar flares go off, NOT when the CMEs hit the Earth. But what does happen is when the aurora kicks up, it does black out polar communications. The rest of the Earth between the polar regions is doing OK, with some absorption happening in the Pacific Ocean from the ongoing M3 flare.

Everyone is flinging "Carrington" around. Yes, the sunspot group that has been flaring for the past ten days is the size as the 1859 sunspot seen by Carrington, but it is not as energetic. Size matters, but so does core numbers, polarities, and complexities. Carrington's spot was far more complex and energetic than the one we have now. No, the grid is not going down all over. It may fail in spots, like it did in Quebec in the 1980s.

One thing is for certain: Given that auroral oval, a good part of America is going to get a treat tonight when the sun goes down. Go outside and look. I'm in SC, and I'm going to look. Midnight is the most likely time.

Reddit is buzzing: "The NOAA is now forecasting a G5 event."
So do all these building keypad locks freeze up during this kind of thing?

Northern lights in Tennessee.

When the red stuff comes out, power lines are about to be fried.
It's too cloudy in my area to see the sky.

Here's one on 5/10 from San Francisco:

BIGGEST X-CLASS Solar Flare In YEARS!


John Deere is reporting GPS problems related to the solar storms. Farmers may end up delaying certain tasks or forego a farming season altogether if problems persist.