Poll

4 votes (50%)
1 vote (12.5%)
3 votes (37.5%)

8 members have voted

DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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July 25th, 2020 at 7:02:52 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Okay, I am NOT accepting this figure. Let just say I am not disputing it at the present time. I would like to know how long would it take to play that number
of real games?



A 1000 hands an hour is a very realstic number for a videopoker player.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
tringlomane
tringlomane
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July 25th, 2020 at 7:18:08 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

A 1000 hands an hour is a very realstic number for a videopoker player.



Especially when you get used to playing the Royal only strategy.
DRich
DRich
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July 25th, 2020 at 7:46:02 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Especially when you get used to playing the Royal only strategy.



Do real people actually play that strategy and stick to it?

I can't imagine someone being dealt four aces with a kicker and throwing it away to go for the royal.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
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July 25th, 2020 at 10:28:19 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

44% return sounds high if this is a true royal at all costs strategy.



Whoa! Sudden interest in this topic!

In the original post, I linked to the Ask the Wizard newsletter in which he says:

Quote: Wizard

I assumed that given two plays of equal royal probability the player will choose the play which maximizes the return on the other hands. The house edge of this strategy on a 9/6 jacks or better game is 51.98%



So if HE is 51.98%, then payback would be 48.02% which is about what I’d have if I get a royal at about 23,000 hands.
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
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July 25th, 2020 at 10:29:51 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Do real people actually play that strategy and stick to it?

I can't imagine someone being dealt four aces with a kicker and throwing it away to go for the royal.



I can imagine it’s a real strategy for many players until they start making pat hands.
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
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August 20th, 2020 at 4:08:32 PM permalink
I've been thinking about the nature of long odds, such as getting a royal flush on 9/6 JoB. It's 1 in 23,081 the way I'm playing it. It's 1 in 40,391 with "optimal" strategy.

I'm up to 5,900 hands on my home video poker machine. Are the odds of getting a royal flush relative to me, not just the machine I'm playing?

In other words, what if I indeed got a royal flush on my Palm Pilot in the early 2000s (and it was a fair game)? Does that mean I need to factor in all those game that I played? Maybe I got lucky and it took me only 6,000 hands on my Palm Pilot, so now I've already gotten a royal flush in about 18,000 hands: 6,000 at home + 6,000 on Palm Pilot + 6,000 at actual casinos?

So maybe I'm not "due" for another royal flush until another 28,162 hands: (23,081*2)-18,000?

But then, do I actually need to play those hands? If it could be on any device, what about if I just happen to walk past a video poker machine and observe a person playing a hand? Does that count as a hand played for me as well?

Does one even need to observe it? Can you say that in the old days, a "change girl" strolling the floor on her shift is observing hundreds or thousands of hands or spins each shift, and tallies the same amount of plays and will observe a jackpot according to the true odds?

Am I drunk?
rsactuary
rsactuary
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August 20th, 2020 at 4:17:05 PM permalink
I think where you're going wrong is that you are never "due". Each hand is an independent event, and all we're saying is that over a long time, you will hit a royal once every 23,081 hands. But you could get a royal on each of your first two hands and then not hit another for 100,000 hands, but still work out to the proper average over the long run.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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August 20th, 2020 at 4:20:38 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Do real people actually play that strategy and stick to it?

I can't imagine someone being dealt four aces with a kicker and throwing it away to go for the royal.



Missed this.

No I don't think so, but some people have suggested it might be a good idea for tournaments. I'm not convinced on that though.

And the probability of making a royal on any given hand varies by the strategy played, smoothgrh. Like rsactuary said, every hand is independent and you're never "due".
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
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August 20th, 2020 at 4:55:12 PM permalink
Sorry, I shouldn’t have said “due” — I know that a royal won’t hit at the exact statistical average. That’s why I said I got “lucky” with a royal flush on my Palm Pilot after an estimated 6,000 hands (I didn’t play it all that much).
billryan
billryan
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August 20th, 2020 at 5:40:26 PM permalink
If the chance of getting a RF in 1 in 40,000 on your first hand, it will be 1 in 40,000 on your 40,000th hand, and on your millionth hand.
When you get two RFs in a row, what will be the odds off getting another the next hand- 1 in 40,000.

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