Poll

4 votes (50%)
1 vote (12.5%)
3 votes (37.5%)

8 members have voted

smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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April 26th, 2020 at 9:31:32 AM permalink
Somewhat in the "Stupid things to do during lockdown" category, in an attempt to re-create the infamous "video poker bug" on my home machine, I'm going to try the "royal at all costs" strategy, which the Wizard says would produce a royal once every 23,081 hands.

I have never gotten a royal flush ó either in a real casino or at home. (I think I got a royal on my Palm Pilot once, but the memory is fuzzy.)

The question for the poll is: how many hands do you think it'll take me to get a royal?
Last edited by: smoothgrh on Apr 26, 2020
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
smoothgrh
April 26th, 2020 at 9:52:29 AM permalink
17,611

Big Poppa pump can demonstrate the math.
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
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Thanks for this post from:
smoothgrh
April 26th, 2020 at 10:21:04 AM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

...The question for the poll is: how many hands do you think it'll take me to get a royal?



My guess is 15,999.

But the answer with the highest probability of being right is one!
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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April 26th, 2020 at 10:59:21 AM permalink
So far:
Cash in $400
Bet 5x$0.10=$0.50
Cash out $369
Lost $31
31/101 31% win pct
61.38% payback

Future updates will be more like every thousand hands if I can remember.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 26th, 2020 at 12:25:12 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Somewhat in the "Stupid things to do during lockdown" category, in an attempt to re-create the infamous "video poker bug" on my home machine

Can you elaborate more, perhaps I missed something?

I assume you're talking about the infamous Nestor and Kane double up bug? If so, do you have this version of the machine with double up enabled?

What does hitting a royal have to do with the double up bug?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
smoothgrh
April 26th, 2020 at 1:08:45 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Somewhat in the "Stupid things to do during lockdown" category, in an attempt to re-create the infamous "video poker bug" on my home machine, I'm going to try the "royal at all costs" strategy, which the Wizard says would produce a royal once every 23,081 hands.

I have never gotten a royal flush ó either in a real casino or at home. (I think I got a royal on my Palm Pilot once, but the memory is fuzzy.)

The question for the poll is: how many hands do you think it'll take me to get a royal?



Using combination math, I have independently calculated the probability of a Royal Flush using the "royal at all costs" strategy as 0.000043326 or 1/ 23080.7473. This agrees with the Wizard - no surprise!

I found this to be a fairly tough calculation. On the Royal Seeker Return Table from the link above, the Wizard also reports the probability of getting all the other various poker hands on the payout table (Jacks or Better up to a straight flush). I can see how to do that, but I must tell you that, in my opinion, the Royal Seeker Return Table was really an impressive combination math calculation by Wizard!

The WOO site has these seemingly trivial little things on it, hidden away, but in reality some of them are pretty magnificent calculations.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
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April 26th, 2020 at 1:11:23 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Somewhat in the "Stupid things to do during lockdown" category, in an attempt to re-create the infamous "video poker bug" on my home machine, I'm going to try the "royal at all costs" strategy, which the Wizard says would produce a royal once every 23,081 hands.

I have never gotten a royal flush ó either in a real casino or at home.?



How much time have you spent playing VP in a casino. Canít believe youíve never hit one. Last Royal I hit was a dealt Royal, That has happened to me twice since I moved to Reno.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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April 26th, 2020 at 2:14:24 PM permalink
A quick look (it's well past wine o'clock here!) I get a different answer, so I'm wondering whether I've got some wrong assumptions. For instance I am assuming that you only hold cards that could make a Royal Flush. So from AsAhAcAdKd you only hold AdKd.

From a probability point of view if you get multiple choices then pick one but the odds of then making a Royal are the same. i.e. you may have 2 of the 5, but still need the other 3, so it makes no difference whether you keep AK or QJ. However in practice you'd play QJ from AsKsQhJh7d as you have more outs.
Catch
1st Perms
2nd Perms
Contribution
5
4
1 533 939
6 135 756
4
940
163 185
153 393 900
3
43 240
14 190
613 575 600
2 2
25 200
946
23 839 200
2
597 000
946
564 762 000
1 1 1 1
20 000
43
860 000
1 1 1
248 000
43
10 664 000
1 1
744 000
43
31 992 000
1
719 200
43
30 925 600
0
201 376
4
805 504
2 598 960
0
1 436 953 560
2 774.374

NOTE: Corrected figures posted later, these assumed you could have five cards on the re-draw!!
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Apr 27, 2020
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
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April 26th, 2020 at 2:23:23 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



I assume you're talking about the infamous Nestor and Kane double up bug? If so, do you have this version of the machine with double up enabled?

What does hitting a royal have to do with the double up bug?



Yes, and OMG thanks for reminding me to turn on the Double Up feature. I mistakenly assumed it was on by default. And yes, I have one of the affected chip sets.

Regarding royal flush, the bug is supposedly present with any win (such as quads), but I figured if Iím going to re-create this, why not do it with some style?
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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April 26th, 2020 at 2:41:11 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider



How much time have you spent playing VP in a casino. Canít believe youíve never hit one. Last Royal I hit was a dealt Royal, That has happened to me twice since I moved to Reno.



Very little time. It wasnít until 100-hand video poker came out did I really get interested in learning strategy, and not until I bought my own machine in 2015 did I regularly start playing VP in a casino. And I usually quit when I hit quads.

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