Royal at all costs strategy

Somewhat in the "Stupid things to do during lockdown" category, in an attempt to re-create the infamous "video poker bug" on my home machine, I'm going to try the "royal at all costs" strategy, which the Wizard says would produce a royal once every 23,081 hands.

I have never gotten a royal flush — either in a real casino or at home. (I think I got a royal on my Palm Pilot once, but the memory is fuzzy.)

The question for the poll is: how many hands do you think it'll take me to get a royal?

17,611

Big Poppa pump can demonstrate the math.

Quote: smoothgrh

...The question for the poll is: how many hands do you think it'll take me to get a royal?

My guess is 15,999.

But the answer with the highest probability of being right is one!

So far:
Cash in $400
Bet 5x$0.10=$0.50
Cash out $369
Lost $31
31/101 31% win pct
61.38% payback

Future updates will be more like every thousand hands if I can remember.

Quote: smoothgrh

Somewhat in the "Stupid things to do during lockdown" category, in an attempt to re-create the infamous "video poker bug" on my home machine

Can you elaborate more, perhaps I missed something?

I assume you're talking about the infamous Nestor and Kane double up bug? If so, do you have this version of the machine with double up enabled?

What does hitting a royal have to do with the double up bug?

Quote: smoothgrh

Somewhat in the "Stupid things to do during lockdown" category, in an attempt to re-create the infamous "video poker bug" on my home machine, I'm going to try the "royal at all costs" strategy, which the Wizard says would produce a royal once every 23,081 hands.

I have never gotten a royal flush — either in a real casino or at home. (I think I got a royal on my Palm Pilot once, but the memory is fuzzy.)

The question for the poll is: how many hands do you think it'll take me to get a royal?

Using combination math, I have independently calculated the probability of a Royal Flush using the "royal at all costs" strategy as 0.000043326 or 1/ 23080.7473. This agrees with the Wizard - no surprise!

I found this to be a fairly tough calculation. On the Royal Seeker Return Table from the link above, the Wizard also reports the probability of getting all the other various poker hands on the payout table (Jacks or Better up to a straight flush). I can see how to do that, but I must tell you that, in my opinion, the Royal Seeker Return Table was really an impressive combination math calculation by Wizard!

The WOO site has these seemingly trivial little things on it, hidden away, but in reality some of them are pretty magnificent calculations.

Quote: smoothgrh

Somewhat in the "Stupid things to do during lockdown" category, in an attempt to re-create the infamous "video poker bug" on my home machine, I'm going to try the "royal at all costs" strategy, which the Wizard says would produce a royal once every 23,081 hands.

I have never gotten a royal flush — either in a real casino or at home.?

How much time have you spent playing VP in a casino. Can’t believe you’ve never hit one. Last Royal I hit was a dealt Royal, That has happened to me twice since I moved to Reno.

A quick look (it's well past wine o'clock here!) I get a different answer, so I'm wondering whether I've got some wrong assumptions. For instance I am assuming that you only hold cards that could make a Royal Flush. So from AsAhAcAdKd you only hold AdKd.

From a probability point of view if you get multiple choices then pick one but the odds of then making a Royal are the same. i.e. you may have 2 of the 5, but still need the other 3, so it makes no difference whether you keep AK or QJ. However in practice you'd play QJ from AsKsQhJh7d as you have more outs.

Catch	1st Perms	2nd Perms	Contribution
5	4	1 533 939	6 135 756
4	940	163 185	153 393 900
3	43 240	14 190	613 575 600
2 2	25 200	946	23 839 200
2	597 000	946	564 762 000
1 1 1 1	20 000	43	860 000
1 1 1	248 000	43	10 664 000
1 1	744 000	43	31 992 000
1	719 200	43	30 925 600
0	201 376	4	805 504
	2 598 960	0	1 436 953 560
			2 774.374

NOTE: Corrected figures posted later, these assumed you could have five cards on the re-draw!!

Quote: AxelWolf

I assume you're talking about the infamous Nestor and Kane double up bug? If so, do you have this version of the machine with double up enabled?

What does hitting a royal have to do with the double up bug?

Yes, and OMG thanks for reminding me to turn on the Double Up feature. I mistakenly assumed it was on by default. And yes, I have one of the affected chip sets.

Regarding royal flush, the bug is supposedly present with any win (such as quads), but I figured if I’m going to re-create this, why not do it with some style?

Quote: Vegasrider

How much time have you spent playing VP in a casino. Can’t believe you’ve never hit one. Last Royal I hit was a dealt Royal, That has happened to me twice since I moved to Reno.

Very little time. It wasn’t until 100-hand video poker came out did I really get interested in learning strategy, and not until I bought my own machine in 2015 did I regularly start playing VP in a casino. And I usually quit when I hit quads.