Poll

5 votes (17.85%)
16 votes (57.14%)
1 vote (3.57%)
5 votes (17.85%)
6 votes (21.42%)

28 members have voted

RS
RS
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September 20th, 2016 at 10:09:37 PM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Oh, horseshit, RS. Three poisonous Skittles in a bowl would be about 1% of the total. Please show me some data (REAL data, not the tripe you usually reference) that shows that a Syrian refugee has a 1% chance of killing someone.

I think the analogy was well understood by everyone, actually. Muslims are bloodthirsty killers. Yeah yeah yeah. What everybody is reacting to is not just how false and repulsive the analogy is, but also how stupid Baby Trump was to use it.



Why does the % matter? Like I said, straight over your head. You're focusing on the wrong thing.
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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September 20th, 2016 at 10:21:01 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Why does the % matter? Like I said, straight over your head. You're focusing on the wrong thing.



If it was "over my head," I wouldn't be discussing it at all, would I? Don't project your shameful ignorance onto others.

I will explain, being careful not to use big words, why the percentage matters. The actual risk of a Syrian refugee being a murderer is vanishingly small (as is the risk of ANY given person being a murderer--even if that person is a filthy Muslim!!!). Therefore, the "three in a bowl" analogy is overstated. A more accurate analogy would be that one single Skittle out of the millions produced MIGHT be poisonous.

Baby Trump was saying that there is a significant risk of a Syrian refugee killing someone. I asked you for data to support your agreement with that position. You didn't bother to try, because you have no such data. Your position is therefore baseless, as is that of Baby Trump.

I'm sorry to have confused you with the percentages concept. I won't try anything that complex with you in the future. The "right thing" to focus on is: is the risk of a Syrian refugee killing someone great enough to justify the use of the analogy? Again, I'll ask you to give us some actual, factual data about the real risk--not some xenophobic, Islamophobic vague feeling.

(And I fully expect you to dig up some internet story about a guy from Syria, somewhere, sometime recently, killing someone, which will of course totally support the contention: "See! They're all bloodthirsty killers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!")
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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September 20th, 2016 at 10:30:51 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear



Second, the ratio is wrong. If we were talking about three / a handful / a day's production from the factory, the ratio would be more correct, but then...



Please explain that to RS for me.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 20th, 2016 at 10:37:50 PM permalink
Math puzzle time! Let's assume there are 12 Skittles in a handful and 200 in a bowl. Three of the Skittles in the bowl will kill you. What is the probability that a random handful will kill you?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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September 20th, 2016 at 10:50:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Math puzzle time! Let's assume there are 12 Skittles in a handful and 200 in a bowl. Three of the Skittles in the bowl will kill you. What is the probability that a random handful will kill you?



That's too easy. If Baby Trump told us they were poisonous, we could safely eat the entire bowl.

But just to clarify: do you have to eat just one or all three of the poisonous Skittles to die? if it just takes one, then you are taking twelve 3/200 chances...except that if you survive the first pick, your risk for the next grows slightly, now being 3 in 199...so I would imagine that your risk is 3/200+3/199+3/198...3/189. I'm sure there's a tidy way to express this in a formula.

So again, assuming just one is all it takes to kill you, my thumbnail guess would be that you are looking at about a 12/66, or 1 in 5.5, risk of Skittle death.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 20th, 2016 at 10:50:55 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Math puzzle time! Let's assume there are 12 Skittles in a handful and 200 in a bowl. Three of the Skittles in the bowl will kill you. What is the probability that a random handful will kill you?

Does death require consuming all three poisoned ones or just one?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
tringlomane
tringlomane
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September 20th, 2016 at 11:02:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Math puzzle time! Let's assume there are 12 Skittles in a handful and 200 in a bowl. Three of the Skittles in the bowl will kill you. What is the probability that a random handful will kill you?



= 1 - (197/200)(196/199)(195/198)... (186/189) = 1 - 0.8298 = 0.1702 = 17.02%

A more interesting question is what are fair odds for Donald Trump's son being able to this problem without assistance? His father? Hillary Clinton?

I hope Hillary has the lowest odds, but I wouldn't count on it. I'm sure they are all in the thousands or higher. Lol

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: Wizard

Math puzzle time! Let's assume there are 12 Skittles in a handful and 200 in a bowl. Three of the Skittles in the bowl will kill you. What is the probability that a random handful will kill you?

Does death require consuming all three poisoned ones or just one?



I assumed one in my answer. If it takes 3 terrorists to kill you, well they suck at their "job".
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 20th, 2016 at 11:07:41 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Does death require consuming all three poisoned ones or just one?



Just one.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 20th, 2016 at 11:09:25 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

= 1 - (197/200)(196/199)(195/198)... (186/189) = 1 - 0.8298 = 0.1702 = 17.02%



Correct! I owe you a beer.

Another representation of the answer is 1-combin(197,12)/combin(200,12).
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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September 21st, 2016 at 1:55:37 AM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

If it was "over my head," I wouldn't be discussing it at all, would I?



I would say that discussing things that are over your head is your brand.



Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Don't project your shameful ignorance onto others.

I will explain, being careful not to use big words, why the percentage matters.




Quote: Joeshlabotnik

I'm sorry to have confused you with the percentages concept. I won't try anything that complex with you in the future.



Maybe that's why you are exempted from the personal insults rule.

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