What are the Odds of tourning $1,000 into $11,000 to $12,000 in 25 hands?

On Saturday I was playing a blackjack tournament at the Cal-Neva against a whole bunch of other players. The top 10 players for the day get to advance to the semi finals and you are playing against all tables in the tournament not just your own table. Plus there was a wild card drawing for another 5 players as a gimmick to keep the players in the casino. I played the last round and the 10th place player was about 9,000 chips for while the top player had 12,800 chips the middle of the pack had 10,800 for the leader board. The top 10 for all 5 rounds which had about 8 tables of 6 players in each round where the only ones that got to advance so more players could push the minimum advancing bankroll higher in the last round. The rules for the tournament where as follow each player starts with 1,000 chips, blackjacks pay 2 to 1, double any two cards, double after a split, minimum bet 25 chips max bet 1,000 chips, the round is 25 hands of blackjack or until you bust out no rebuys. Prizes where $7,000 for first $2,000 for second and a $1,000 for third 4th place $700 of action chips and 5th place was $500 of action chips. Buy in was $39 I got it comped. My stragedy for the tournament was to bet the max on the first hand and I lost. Was this the right stradgedy mathitically? If I would have won the hand I would have kept on betting the max until I hit 11,000 or 12,000 in chips than I would have bet the 25 chip minimum for the rest of the hands.
I bet the max because finishing the day with 8,975 chips or less was equal to finishing the day with zero chips in my mind.

Nice dynamics for the tournament but I would have played in another way. I think that betting all your chips once perhaps would be harmful in case of needing to split pairs or even face the possibility of dobling down.

Quote: aluisio

Nice dynamics for the tournament but I would have played in another way. I think that betting all your chips once perhaps would be harmful in case of needing to split pairs or even face the possibility of dobling down.

You know I thought about playing half my chips on the first hand but I thought that if I lost I would be crippled from the tournament anyways from finishing with my goal of 10,000+. I would never play real money hands this way I kind of panic when I saw the scores of the top 10 players with 9-12 times the starting bankroll.

i think you play half your chips for a bit, then push to the max of $1000 once you have $2000. It is pretty unlikely to turn 1000 into 9000 at all, about 1/9 or so (a little better because BJ pays 2 to 1), let alone being able to do it in 25 hands.

whole books have been written on tourney strategy

In tournament Blackjack deviating from basic strategy is often the correct move, so if you are too much behind then betting all chips to one hand and hoping for a blackjack might be your best move. But I strongly doubt this is the best move on the very first hand. With 25 rounds you should have plenty of time to reach 9 times your bankroll starting with half-bankroll bets.

I was also thinking that wouldn't it be possible that if all other players played aggressively similar to like you did, they might all bust to dealer 21, so it would be possible to get a good placing even with having the same amount of chips at the end as at the start.

Personally, I'd bet 1/3 of my stack. That gives me the opportunity to split or double, lose, and still be in it.

I know it's unlikely, but if you simply bet about 1/3, and won even money on each hand, you'd be over 3K in 4 wins, and over 10K in 11 wins.

25 hands is a LOT, and reaching 12K is not at all unattainable. Yeah, you still gotta be lucky, but not at all impossible:

Wins	Bank	Bet 1/3		Wins	Bank	Bet 1/2
Start	1,000	325		Start	1,000	500
1	1,325	450		1	1,500	750
2	1,775	600		2	2,250	1,000
3	2,375	800		3	3,250	1,000
4	3,175	1,000		4	4,250	1,000
5	4,175	1,000		5	5,250	1,000
6	5,175	1,000		6	6,250	1,000
7	6,175	1,000		7	7,250	1,000
8	7,175	1,000		8	8,250	1,000
9	8,175	1,000		9	9,250	1,000
10	9,175	1,000		10	10,250	1,000
11	10,175	1,000		11	11,250	1,000
12	11,175	1,000		12	12,250	1,000
13	12,175	1,000		13	13,250	1,000
14	13,175	1,000		14	14,250	1,000
15	14,175	1,000		15	15,250	1,000

As you can see, betting a third does not put you at that much of a disadvantage vs betting half.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Personally, I'd bet 1/3 of my stack. That gives me the opportunity to split or double, lose, and still be in it.

I know it's unlikely, but if you simply bet about 1/3, and won even money on each hand, you'd be over 3K in 4 wins, and over 10K in 11 wins.

25 hands is a LOT, and reaching 12K is not at all unattainable. Yeah, you still gotta be lucky, but not at all impossible:

Wins	Bank	Bet 1/3		Wins	Bank	Bet 1/2
Start	1,000	325		Start	1,000	500
1	1,325	450		1	1,500	750
2	1,775	600		2	2,250	1,000
3	2,375	800		3	3,250	1,000
4	3,175	1,000		4	4,250	1,000
5	4,175	1,000		5	5,250	1,000
6	5,175	1,000		6	6,250	1,000
7	6,175	1,000		7	7,250	1,000
8	7,175	1,000		8	8,250	1,000
9	8,175	1,000		9	9,250	1,000
10	9,175	1,000		10	10,250	1,000
11	10,175	1,000		11	11,250	1,000
12	11,175	1,000		12	12,250	1,000
13	12,175	1,000		13	13,250	1,000
14	13,175	1,000		14	14,250	1,000
15	14,175	1,000		15	15,250	1,000

As you can see, betting a third does not put you at that much of a disadvantage vs betting half.

Say you lose the first hand of the match is the goal still uptainable if you bet that much first hand?
Second if you are lucky enough to get to $12,000 you might as well bet out $25 a hand until the end of the tournament because that would gurantee you a spot in the semi-finals even if you go on a losing streak. Chips reset in the semi-finals so there is not an advantage to finishing 1st or 10th in the original rounds.

Quote: cardcounter

Say you lose the first hand of the match is the goal still uptainable if you bet that much first hand?

OK, sure, good question.

As I mentioned, no matter what, you're gonna need luck. And I didn't account for any BlackJacks or splits.

But here's some more charts.

On this one, you lose the first and win all successive hands.

Wins	Bank	Bet 1/3		Wins	Bank	Bet 1/2
Start	1,000	-325		Start	1,000	-500
1	675	225		1	500	250
2	900	300		2	750	375
3	1,200	400		3	1,125	575
4	1,600	525		4	1,700	850
5	2,125	700		5	2,550	1,000
6	2,825	950		6	3,550	1,000
7	3,775	1,000		7	4,550	1,000
8	4,775	1,000		8	5,550	1,000
9	5,775	1,000		9	6,550	1,000
10	6,775	1,000		10	7,550	1,000
11	7,775	1,000		11	8,550	1,000
12	8,775	1,000		12	9,550	1,000
13	9,775	1,000		13	10,550	1,000
14	10,775	1,000		14	11,550	1,000
15	11,775	1,000		15	12,550	1,000

On this chart, you lose the first two hands, and win all successive hands.

Wins	Bank	Bet 1/3		Wins	Bank	Bet 1/2
Start	1,000	-325		Start	1,000	-500
1	675	-225		1	500	-250
2	450	150		2	250	125
3	600	200		3	375	200
4	800	275		4	575	300
5	1,075	350		5	875	450
6	1,425	475		6	1,325	675
7	1,900	625		7	2,000	1,000
8	2,525	850		8	3,000	1,000
9	3,375	1,000		9	4,000	1,000
10	4,375	1,000		10	5,000	1,000
11	5,375	1,000		11	6,000	1,000
12	6,375	1,000		12	7,000	1,000
13	7,375	1,000		13	8,000	1,000
14	8,375	1,000		14	9,000	1,000
15	9,375	1,000		15	10,000	1,000

On this chart, you lose one then win two and repeat that pattern.

Wins	Bank	Bet 1/3		Wins	Bank	Bet 1/2
Start	1,000	-325		Start	1,000	-500
1	675	225		1	500	250
2	900	300		2	750	375
3	1,200	-400		3	1,125	-575
4	800	275		4	550	275
5	1,075	350		5	825	425
6	1,425	-475		6	1,250	-625
7	950	325		7	625	325
8	1,275	425		8	950	475
9	1,700	-575		9	1,425	-725
10	1,125	375		10	700	350
11	1,500	500		11	1,050	525
12	2,000	-675		12	1,575	-800
13	1,325	450		13	775	400
14	1,775	600		14	1,175	600
15	2,375	-800		15	1,775	-900