Probability question for Wizard of Odds or any other bright person ...

DISCLAIMER.
I don't play roulette systems - but some times i place some dummy bets to get time to pass by or look occupied at the table - but not this one do.

THE FOLLOWING IN NOT A METHOD OR SYSTEM - IT IS JUST OBSERVATIONS.

This is for me a conflict and fun observation.

One famous x player once mention ( i even remember Wizard of odds doing so or at least something similiar ) how some one could use the previous five and reduce the house edge to certain degree playing certain wheels - but not that the house edge would vanish - unsing the previos five numbers - just a better option for Average Player do ...
So i took a deeper look into this topic and start to experiment with other parameters using the previous five.

This values show the frequencies of repeats.
First column show how many times the repeats hit - Frequencies.
The second column show when the first repeat appeared.

158 - 2
249 - 3
371 - 4
459 - 5
546 - 6 !!!
524 - 7 !!!
531 - 8 !!!
478 - 9
437 - 10
368 - 11
278 - 12
222 - 13
150 - 14

This simulation show that repeats has a peak at 6th, 7th and 8th spin with the highest values.

Frequencies of attack window.
If we would trust this simulation - then one attack window of three would be optimal after previous five - optional a attack window of four.
Using numbers and repeats.

Conflict and different parameters.
Now i wondering if we take this futher and take even money as option using previous five.
Lets assume we collect series of five black or series of five red - then would it not be better follow that colour then play against it? - as we expect one repeat within three attempts - then playing against that the opposite colour would show - if we assume and apply one attack window of three both ways.
Is there a difference?

Even money bets has a 50/50 probability to show - "no matter past results" - but how does this effect example of the previous five as one extra parameter - how does this effect probability, fluctuation, strike rate - if at all - is it possible that there exist a slight and very small difference in following the previous five then play against them with my description above using even money bets and previos five as one extra parameter.

I just find it fun to elaborate about it :-)

I just took some numbers to get a visual how it looks like.
13 attacks where 6 include one repeat and all won.

High / Low numbers.

1
5
4
7
8 Previos 5 Low No repeats

3 Won
22
35

- - -

20
29
33
31
26 Previos 5 High One repeat

7 Loss
32 Won
26 Repeat

- - -

28
19
34
24
25 Previos 5 High One repeat

32 Won
1
24 Repeat

- - -

26
28
31
27
23 Previos 5 High One repeat

20 Won
25
26 Repeat

- - -

35
20
29
32
23 Previos 5 High No repeat

3 Loss
27 Won
17

- - -

28
33
20
35
29 Previos 5 High No repeat

30 Won
1
15

- - -

9
11
1
7
18 Previos 5 Low One repeat

11 Won Repeat
9 Repeat
9 Repeat

- - -

30
24
26
21
27 Previos 5 High No repeat

28 Won
25
32

- - -

22
29
30
19
25 Previos 5 High No repeat

11 Loss
14 Loss
21 Won

- - -

24
28
21
22
31 Previos 5 High No repeat

0 Loss
36 Won
32

- - -

22
27
20
25
29 Previos 5 High One repeat

27 Won Repeat
11
23

- - -

24
23
33
22
31 Previos 5 High No repeat

29 Won
36
35

- - -

10
17
12
5
18 Previos 5 Low One repeat

17 Won Repeat
20
31

Quote: AverageJOE

One famous player once mentioned how some one could use the previous five and reduce the house edge ...

Nope. The house edge simply "is" . It neither increases nor decreases. It never evaporates or takes a break. It is relentless in its operation and is not dependent upon nor influenced by the last "x" results.

Do certain number sequences have "repeaters"? Sure. And certain number sequences do not.

Come on - any thoughts - is it better to ride two horses then one or is it the same shit regarding probability ?

Cheers

Quote: FleaStiff

Nope. The house edge simply "is" . It neither increases nor decreases. It never evaporates or takes a break. It is relentless in its operation and is not dependent upon nor influenced by the last "x" results.

So you say - that the wheel still has 37/38 degree of freedom ? even if it would exist a slight bias ! witch would not reduce the house edge ... ?

Cheers

Quote: AverageJOE

even if it would exist a slight bias ! witch would not reduce the house edge ... ?

Witchcraft ain't got nothin' to do with it. The last number, the last five numbers, the last ten numbers, ... means nothing. That is why that annunciator panel only shows the results, not how to interpret them.

"Witchcraft ain't got nothin' to do with it"

OK :-)

So no matter how you twist it using different paramters - it still remain being the same - 50/50 - so the conclusion is that it does not matter if you following or play aginst a colour - same shit with same hit ratio and negative expectation :-)

Quote: AverageJOE

does not matter if you following or play against a colour - same shit with same hit ratio and negative expectation :-)

Of course its a negative expectation. You think the casino is going to pay some guy to stand there spinning a wheel that offers a positive expectation and also serve free drinks to the players taking advantage of the positive expectation?

I've played a lot of Roulette. It's been my experience that older, more experienced Roulette dealers seem to develop a consistency in their 'throwing motions' that goes along, often, with a willingness to ignore the Casino's directive that they 'vary' their spin speeds. These are the same folks who realize full well that repeating their numbers is the easiest way to create happy players who are tipping more. So... it is quite possible IMO that there can be an effect of the sort you reference. But, of course, this theory turns on one's willingness to believe an experienced Roulette dealer can 'control' his delivery sufficiently to hit specific wheel sectors. I know a Dealer who can accomplish this, but I've also seen many dealers who I seriously doubted had any control whatsoever (which is the Casino's preference, of course!)

Quote: midwestgb

These are the same folks who realize full well that repeating their numbers is the easiest way to create happy players who are tipping more.

Must be one heck of a dumb dealer who wants to intentionally create happy players on the off chance that some of them will tip him a bit more than they otherwise might. I mean what the heck,,, if he can create a winning spin intentionally then all he has to do is have his brother-in-law sit there and win at 35:1 payouts all night long. That would be much more money than some better tips in his toke box. Add in his Sister, his mistress, his drinking buddies... in one night he make a thousand times what his tip income would be.

I read the first two posts, twice, and still have no idea what you're trying to say.


But on the subject of bias wheels and house edge: If a wheel has a bias, that does not change the edge. It only changes the expectations for players that know where the bias is, and bet accordingly.

Are there Roulette dealers who can trend a sector by getting into so-called grooves? Yes, I believe there are... based upon the repetitive nature of their activity and the fact that more-experienced dealers develop highly repetitive actions through muscle memory. Can those same folks hit specific numbers on demand and thereby conspire to make millions with their confederates? No.

If a dealer can "hit an octet" of the wheel, it would still be more profitable by far to have a confederate than the typical "happy tipper" type playing there.

Quote: midwestgb

I've played a lot of Roulette. It's been my experience that older, more experienced Roulette dealers seem to develop a consistency in their 'throwing motions' that goes along, often, with a willingness to ignore the Casino's directive that they 'vary' their spin speeds. These are the same folks who realize full well that repeating their numbers is the easiest way to create happy players who are tipping more. So... it is quite possible IMO that there can be an effect of the sort you reference. But, of course, this theory turns on one's willingness to believe an experienced Roulette dealer can 'control' his delivery sufficiently to hit specific wheel sectors. I know a Dealer who can accomplish this, but I've also seen many dealers who I seriously doubted had any control whatsoever (which is the Casino's preference, of course!)

Well i can see pepole here write about a dealer to create a winning spin - its like winning on on lottery !!! - but there is exeptions.
I will just mention some basic.

1. First the dealer have to spin the ball with the same strenght/fource - spin after spin - even if he or she does - the ball time traveling will be different from start to end - even if the ball make around 18 19 20 turnarounds - witch follow us to point two.

2. The rotor position will change its place at the end of the spin and have variation witch position it will have - even if the dealer continus puch rotor with same fource - as point 1 time will be different with one extra or one less turnaround to end and time will have its own variation even if all spindevelopment was 19 turnarounds.

3. Even if that is the case, you can take andvantage out of a dealers behavior using conter measuring points to narrow down the spindevelopment to become with a bias behavior and norrow down certan numbers hitting - but then again it would depend on point 4.

4. If there is no drop zone and ball behave chaotic hitting all kind of deflectors with even distribution - there would be no chanche at all to narrow down a dealers spin behaveior to achive to find a signature of some kind.

It is a myth to belive that a dealer by him self can hit sectors or favorite certan numbers - the wheel is more complex then that.
Should also mention that the spin of the ball has not 37/38 degree of freedom - but still the spreed is to wide and random.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I read the first two posts, twice, and still have no idea what you're trying to say.


But on the subject of bias wheels and house edge: If a wheel has a bias, that does not change the edge. It only changes the expectations for players that know where the bias is, and bet accordingly.

Well my spelling is not the best - so i understand you read it twice :-)

Is nothing special - is just one observation that repeat of numbers has a peak at 6th 7th 8th spin.
Then the option to add other paramters to achive a higher strike ratio.

It was a probabiltiy question if it would change anything or still be 50/50 with one extra parameter.
Betting aginst or with the flow using previos five.