I'm satisfied with arriving at a value of 1.40% -- it is relatively close to the 1.43% that Bill Zender quoted somewhere (but I can't recall where). You have my permission to hijack ...
Dorothy, i think the quote you are looking for is here:
Ask the Wizard
I want to modify the program to have a "common player" basic strategy, to get a sense of the edge most players play with. I know there are a number of basic mistakes players make -- so ...
So just how common are common players.
How "average" is the average player, what variation is there?
I think some players have fundamentally mistaken views of the game:
Goal is to get as close to 21 as possible rather than goal is to beat the dealer's hand.
Goal is to have a team-spirited set of players who don't disturb the natural order of the universe... er uh, natural order of the cards.
I think there are some players who have simply a misunderstanding as to some of the finer points. Now some of those finer points are disputed by the experts too. For instance, I never seem to know the correct number of peas to put on a knife at the dinner table so for some things the answers are not readily available but for others they are.
Whether someone should Hit, Stand, DoubleDown or Punt at a particular combination can be debated and analyzed but often the true, proper and correct answer ain't all that much different from the common player's wrong answer and this sort of mistake is not all that significant.
The other category of mistake is the Time At Table Mistake:
Time at table mistakes involve alcohol consumption, waitress distractions, player conversation distractions, total number of players mistakes that affect comp rate, etc.
So no matter how sober the "common player" is assumed to be, its clear that the real world casinos have some intoxicated patrons and also have some stone cold sober ones.
So no matter how naive some of the "common players" actually are, some know the goals properly and some just coast along with a hazy grasp on what is happening.
So we can accept a certain " common player " even if we don't really know if he wears a fanny pack or drinks like a fish or is as dumb as the day is long. We don't know precisely how much effect the girl with the low cut dress and talkative nature will distract a fellow player. We don't know precisely angry and distracted a player will become at some other player's "theft" of a bust card. Yet we can still come up with a "common player" and assign this phantom player an "impairment rate" by which he improves the casino's house edge thru his own actions and ignorance.
So you want to refine the comp system? Well, perhaps you should comp that chatty young thing in the slinky dress or perhaps you should give a bonus to the cocktail waitresses so that they come 'round sooner and more often since perhaps it is they who are making your money for you.