Most cycles seen
Thanks in advance.
Quote: LottoballsNo thought yet on this one?
I don't think anybody understands the question, including me.
I hope this is helping.
My question remains what is the most cycles anyone has seen in a game.
Quote: LottoballsAs an example a cycle is all the plays in an event. Lets take a coin flip, a cycle would be 2 flips and in the long run one could expect one head and one tail. Another cycle would be 37 spins in roulette on a single green wheel, and you could expect one ZERO in 37 spins in the long run on average. So 10 "cycles" would be 370 spins on this wheel.
So, basically you are looking for a number of "expected number of trials" where 1/p is the formula for independent trials.
I have never used that to create a "cycle". A cycle IMHO is a useless term.
Why not say 370 spins = 370 spins.
It fits so much better into any formula since a spin = n.
I really see no point to convert (total number of spins) divided by (expected number of trials) = cycles.
Quote: LottoballsCould be 40,250~ pushes @ 9/6 JOB. Has anyone seen 402,500 pushes without a royal?
I hope this is helping.
My question remains what is the most cycles anyone has seen in a game.
I never tracked VP hands I played, but I played many from age 21 to age 36 before I hit my first Royal. How many hands, how many cycles...do not know.
The next 17 years since my 1st royal I have hit maybe 20 more.
By the OP's definition, it would be 36 rolls with each possible face/combination expected to appear once.Quote: 7outlineawayWhat would a "cycle" in craps be? A resolved point? Thirty-six rolls of the dice, so that each combination would be expected to come up once?
Here's the reply I supplied in the other thread about this topic...
While it seems like *FOREVER* between hitting certain events, nobody counts the number of hands in between, except on a simulator.Quote: LottoballsHas anyone seen say 400,000 hand w/o a royal?
Since I have been doing some 500 million spin simulations for my Poker For Roulette, I can tell you that, on average, numbers can fail to hit for as many as 700 consecutive spins.
Does that answer your question?
So if I were to say pick a number between 1 & 100, then a "cycle" would be 100 guesses. Make sense?
Quote: LottoballsI guess you guys can now forgive me for using the term "Cycle". In baseball a cycle is when one gets each of a single, double, triple, homerun. To "cycle" a motor would be to fire each piston once. Think washing machine, does it have a "cycle"?
So if I were to say pick a number between 1 & 100, then a "cycle" would be 100 guesses. Make sense?
Sure; in slot machines, the cycle is the length of each reel strip multiplied together. But getting back to your question, the probability of observing a number of "cycles" without seeing a particular event X is entirely dependent on (a) how long the cycle is and (b) how likely X is.
Quote: LottoballsOk a coin flip is 2 flips, a number between 1 and 100 is 100, and picking a number between 1 to 100,000 is 100,000. So given any of those events or cycles, does the size of the cycle matter how frequent "X" happens relative to the given cycle length or size?
Well, yes. Take the game of Craps for example. There are 36 possible combinations of faces between the two die. However, six combinations total 7, and five total 6. The game is predicated on achieving totals as well as particular combinations of faces, (only one combination will give you 12, or 4+4, a.k.a. the "Hard Eight".) A "cycle", as you define it is not actionable as the two die appear the same, and the particular die face on each throw cannot be effectively tracked.
1*1, 1*2, 1*3, 1*4, 1*5, 1*6, 2*1, 2*2, 2*3, 2*4, 2*5, 2*6, 3*1, 3*2, 3*3, 3*4, 3*5, 3*6, 4*1, 4*2, 4*3, 4*4, 4*5, 4*6, 5*1, 5*2, 5*3, 5*4, 5*5, 5*6, 6*1, 6*2, 6*3, 6*4, 6*5, 6*6.
So back to the original question, how many cycles is the max anyone has seen in real life or on a simulator.
Examples of going ten cycles are 360 rolls of the dice with no #2, 370 spins in single Zero roulette without a green Zero coming up, or even picking a number between 1 and 10. 100 guesses without getting the number correct providing it changes each time you guess.
Quote: LottoballsAs far as dice I think I'm going to have to disagree with you about the cycle length, I say it is 36. 6 sides*2=36 different outcomes. Granted most numbers in craps can be made several ways, but their are 36 distinct events in the cycle.
1*1, 1*2, 1*3, 1*4, 1*5, 1*6, 2*1, 2*2, 2*3, 2*4, 2*5, 2*6, 3*1, 3*2, 3*3, 3*4, 3*5, 3*6, 4*1, 4*2, 4*3, 4*4, 4*5, 4*6, 5*1, 5*2, 5*3, 5*4, 5*5, 5*6, 6*1, 6*2, 6*3, 6*4, 6*5, 6*6.
So back to the original question, how many cycles is the max anyone has seen in real life or on a simulator.
Examples of going ten cycles are 360 rolls of the dice with no #2, 370 spins in single Zero roulette without a green Zero coming up, or even picking a number between 1 and 10. 100 guesses without getting the number correct providing it changes each time you guess.
I now at least understand what you are asking. Ok. For 360 rolls with no 2 (I assume you mean snake eyes) the odds of that happening is 35/36 to the 360th power. Which is about 1 in 70000 or so. Pretty similar for your roulette example. Your number guess question is 9/10 to the 100th power. Or about 1 in 38000.
I do not know if i have ever seen such a thing in 'real life' as I never would be paying attention. Now since i answered your question, would you be kind enough to tell me why you asked it?
You are actually talking about the "Hit Cycle" in baseball. I think there are about 10 or 11 distinct ways for a batter to reach first base safely, without looking it up.Quote: LottoballsIn baseball a cycle is when one gets each of a single, double, triple, homerun.
I do not think any baseball player has accomplished all those ways to reach base in one game. So that should be a very large cycle.
Quote: LottoballsSo if I were to say pick a number between 1 & 100, then a "cycle" would be 100 guesses. Make sense?
OK.
In Craps, I watched one shooter roll 76 rolls of the dice and the 76th roll was his first 7, a 7out. But by "cycle" that is only more than 12 cycles. (1 in 6)
Does not sound impressive by using the word "cycle", the table, me included, made big coin.
In a roulette simulation, American wheel, groups of 38 spins, 1 cycle, the number "13" did not show for 739 spins or 19.44 "cycles".
IMO, using a "cycle" makes it seem like a rare event was not that big of a deal.
I still see no use for the use of a "cycle".
I stick with p = probability of success and n = number of trials.
