Controlled Dice Shooting is BS!

In the Wizard of Vegas "Is there a reccomended way to learn to deal craps?"
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/815-is-there-a-reccomended-way-to-learn-to-deal-craps/2/

the thread got a visit from a Dale S. Yeazel about his website and ebooks for sale.
I knew Mr. Yeazel years ago in Vegas, I'm sure he would not know me from Adam, but who knows. He knows what he speaks about.

Time for all you dice setters and professed controllers to speak up.
Dale did.
http://www.casinogamesteacher.com/index011


mlk654321, I'm sure can put together some nice works for those snake oil dice control salespeople.

Let me throw out a name. Hmmm.

Frank Scoblete. Big name gambling book writer and dice controller.
I have seen many of his ex students, or those who claim to have been his students.
Most could not even hit the back wall. And roll less 7s with longer rolls before a 7out claim???

And the supposed 147 world record hand by "The Captain" in AC. Now a book out recently by a well known Blackjack player and writer has
A statistical argument has been offered [p. 480] suggesting that the story is apocryphal." ( that word is not a good one for Scoblete followers)

Grosjean, J. Exhibit CAA: Beyond Counting—
Exploiting Casino Games from Blackjack to
Video Poker. South Side Advantage Press, Las Vegas, 2009.


Shame on all of you.
You would think we all just fell off the turnip truck!

Pick up the dice and roll them. Stop believing that you are the reason for winning at a Craps table.
The 154 roll hand world record in AC last year was from a chicken feeder.

Dice control is a bunch of crap and everyone knows it. Scoblete and Wong make money off of suckers who buy their baloney on it, that's the only way anyone's gonna make a profit off of it. If they really had something then they'd be out killing the casinos instead of blabbing about doing it. And if they had any intelligence they'd work their way around suspicious and unintelligent pit bosses.

Quote: JerryLogan

Dice control is a bunch of crap and everyone knows it. Scoblete and Wong make money off of suckers who buy their baloney on it, that's the only way anyone's gonna make a profit off of it. If they really had something then they'd be out killing the casinos instead of blabbing about doing it. And if they had any intelligence they'd work their way around suspicious and unintelligent pit bosses.

I second that emotion.

Every dice setter has the perfect excuses.
Made 4 passes and over 20 dice rolls and it is "my skill" that made everyone money.
Fires off a point-7, or the point-point-seven that is more common, and it was "I knew I had tossed them a bit too hard".

Its obvious that one hour of play would bring in more money than an entire day of selling dice-control seminars, IF dice-control actually worked.

What sort of an edge is desired? When that Stanford statistics professor had professionally made shaved-dice it still didn't give much of an "edge". And no edge at all will survive the dice bouncing against that back wall.

The premise is compelling because it only takes a minor adjustment of the fair-die probabilities to achieve a reasonable player edge. The fallacy is that a minor adjustment of those probabilities is somehow easy to achieve, which hasn't at all been demonstrated under casino conditions (e.g. required to hit the wall, no sliding). To me, it seems a poor investment of time and potentially money to practice a particular method of throwing dice when the casino can require you to stop it at their leisure.

Quote: MathExtremist

The premise is compelling because it only takes a minor adjustment of the fair-die probabilities to achieve a reasonable player edge. The fallacy is that a minor adjustment of those probabilities is somehow easy to achieve, which hasn't at all been demonstrated under casino conditions (e.g. required to hit the wall, no sliding). To me, it seems a poor investment of time and potentially money to practice a particular method of throwing dice when the casino can require you to stop it at their leisure.

As the OP so sneeringly refers, I tried a particular dice control technique many years ago, and had modest success with it. I didn't pursue it much further, though, simply because you only get to shoot about once every half hour or so at a crowded table. Also, as you say, if your method actually works, you'll be asked to stop throwing the dice that way, or to not shoot at all.

I think it's definitely possible to achieve that minor adjustment you mention, but practical application of the method is extremely difficult. It's not "B.S.", though--just of marginal utility, and difficult to do.

I realize that I'm speaking from personal experience here, which can't be shared, so if anyone wants to call me a liar, feel free.

Quote: mkl654321

As the OP so sneeringly refers, I tried a particular dice control technique many years ago, and had modest success with it. I didn't pursue it much further, though, simply because you only get to shoot about once every half hour or so at a crowded table. Also, as you say, if your method actually works, you'll be asked to stop throwing the dice that way, or to not shoot at all.

I think it's definitely possible to achieve that minor adjustment you mention, but practical application of the method is extremely difficult. It's not "B.S.", though--just of marginal utility, and difficult to do.

I realize that I'm speaking from personal experience here, which can't be shared, so if anyone wants to call me a liar, feel free.

Here's a good question for the genius who calls himself mkl: If you have so much experience with just about everything and have read every book on every subject ever written, how is it that in your declining years you have to spend so much time here blabbing on and on when you could be out teaching others how to live their lives the mkl way?

I will take the pro-setting position and say that it *is* possible. It's hard to believe that a very small amount of control wouldn't be attainable. But I think that the attained level of control has a very very minimal effect on game play. It's like on that bacc card counting thread...sure, you CAN count cards in bacc, but it's not worth the effort.

My position is well known that I'm skeptical of it, but won't go so far as to say that nobody can influence the dice. I will say that I think that vast majority of those who think they can influence the dice, can't. I'll also so that I think there is much more money being made selling books and lessons on this topic than is actually made at the craps table. I've been asking for years for evidence that anybody can influence the dice, and I'll do so again now, but have never seen anything that couldn't be easily attributable to short-term luck.

Quote: JerryLogan

Here's a good question for the genius who calls himself mkl: If you have so much experience with just about everything and have read every book on every subject ever written, how is it that in your declining years you have to spend so much time here blabbing on and on when you could be out teaching others how to live their lives the mkl way?

I guess it's the same probably the same reason you spend time on here blabbing on about what a loser MKL is and how much money you earn...

Quote: thecesspit

I guess it's the same probably the same reason you spend time on here blabbing on about what a loser MKL is and how much money you earn...

As I've said, I find it very reassuring when JL disagrees with me and calls me every name in the book. After all, when a fool calls YOU a fool, doesn't that mean that you are anything BUT that? JL is a source of inspiration to me. I hope he never goes away.

I wouldn't, by the way, encourage ANYBODY to earn their keep as an advantage gambler, unless no other viable alternative existed. It certainly is possible to do, even today, but it takes a degree of effort and hard work that is not commensurate with the (often very modest) rewards. In terms of total return vs. total hours spent (including practicing, scouting, etc.), I doubt if I made more than $15/hr, and for the first half of my career, risk of ruin was always hovering over my head.

Quote: thecesspit

I guess it's the same probably the same reason you spend time on here blabbing on about what a loser MKL is and how much money you earn...

That's because I live in the present and don't BS about the past, and write made-up essays about every subject that comes up in front of me on a screen.

Quote: mkl654321

I wouldn't, by the way, encourage ANYBODY to earn their keep as an advantage gambler, unless no other viable alternative existed.

Except by definition there's always a viable alternative -- if there's a casino to play in, that casino needs employees. I'd suppose that the average cocktail waitress in Las Vegas has a higher effective hourly wage than the average advantage player (including those who *think* they're +EV but really aren't).

Quote: MathExtremist

Except by definition there's always a viable alternative -- if there's a casino to play in, that casino needs employees. I'd suppose that the average cocktail waitress in Las Vegas has a higher effective hourly wage than the average advantage player (including those who *think* they're +EV but really aren't).

The casino might already have enough employees....

Quote: JerryLogan

That's because I live in the present and don't BS about the past, and write made-up essays about every subject that comes up in front of me on a screen.

Yet you feel the need to repeat it every chance you can.... odd... I would have thought a wealthy, well adjusted man would find better things to waste his time with.

Ah well, no reason to try and understand the psyche of other people on an internet forum. I never did take psychology, so I wouldn't want to presuppose anything I'm not an expert in.

Of course it's possible to control the dice. Until they hit something.

I don't think I fully control them while they are still in the air. Maybe not even while they're still in my hand.

Quote: thecesspit

Yet you feel the need to repeat it every chance you can.... odd... I would have thought a wealthy, well adjusted man would find better things to waste his time with.

That's dumb. I've never said I was wealthy. On my and my wife's salaries we could never be. We just live good and make the most of what we've got. We also look with great expectations to the future, unlike your pal mkl, who only has past pretends to ponder.

Quote: MathExtremist

Except by definition there's always a viable alternative -- if there's a casino to play in, that casino needs employees. I'd suppose that the average cocktail waitress in Las Vegas has a higher effective hourly wage than the average advantage player (including those who *think* they're +EV but really aren't).

By "no viable alternative", I meant no other way of earning a decent living wage. I've noticed, in the last two years as Las Vegas unemployment went through the roof, that virtually every .25 fullpay deuces wild machine remaining in town is constantly occupied by a grim-faced local, trying to squeeze out the $7/hour that the machine offers. (Actually, at the Palms, it's closer to $10/hr, which is why you practically need a gun to get on a machine on the FPDW progessive bank, unless it's 3 AM.)

Quote: thecesspit

Yet you feel the need to repeat it every chance you can.... odd... I would have thought a wealthy, well adjusted man would find better things to waste his time with.

Ah well, no reason to try and understand the psyche of other people on an internet forum. I never did take psychology, so I wouldn't want to presuppose anything I'm not an expert in.

I just wonder...what is an essay that ISN'T "made up"? One you copied from someone else?

Gaaah! I just caught myself trying to make sense out of something JL said! Gods, smite me!

Quote: JerryLogan

That's dumb. I've never said I was wealthy. On my and my wife's salaries we could never be. We just live good and make the most of what we've got. We also look with great expectations to the future, unlike your pal mkl, who only has past pretends to ponder.

Oh, so you don't pull down quarter of a million a year? Or is 250k a year not wealthy in Logan's World?

Quote: JerryLogan said elsewhere

I OTOH lose just about every year, but I make a salary including bonuses well over a quarter million.

Quote: thecesspit

Oh, so you don't pull down quarter of a million a year? Or is 250k a year not wealthy in Logan's World?

He keeps referring to my past successes as being not real or not worth considering simply because they WERE in the past. So in Jerry World, nothing that happened before today counts. I think he's actually lying, he doesn't have a wife, he doesn't have a job, he doesn't have a home, and he only is able to post because he hides in the bathroom at the library until they close, and then he sneaks in and fires up one of the internet computers. So who knows what really happens in Jerry World?

And while I am evidently your "pal", you probably can't get rich by following me around. I still take trips to Vegas three or four times a year, but I live on the modest salary of a teacher, so I don't need to be rigorously disciplined about my gambling, not in the short timespan of my trips. Last trip, I stayed for ten days, and all my rooms were comped, I never paid for a meal, and I lost $850. I now play several -EV VP games just for the sake of future room offers, and I play some of the goofier games that I never would have touched if VP were my primary source of income. I have much more fun playing now than I did back then.

I suspect JL has most of what he claims... just as I suspect you have done nicely out of VP in the past and may continue to in the future.

...

I was so hoping I could back-count you on my next trip to Vegas and make sure I could get myself comped on VP... ah well, I'll make do with a free beer or seven (I hope they still have fat Tire on tap) and a cheap room at the Orleans this time around... it's a sign of the times when casino's offer me free room (Gold Coast for two nights) considering my action is very low, and my attendance in Vegas is at best yearly. I don't chase comps, but if they come my way...

Quote: JerryLogan

Dice control is a bunch of crap and everyone knows it. Scoblete and Wong make money off of suckers who buy their baloney on it, that's the only way anyone's gonna make a profit off of it. If they really had something then they'd be out killing the casinos instead of blabbing about doing it. And if they had any intelligence they'd work their way around suspicious and unintelligent pit bosses.

The thing on dice control (I prefer the term "influence") is that there are parts that do add up. For example"

Dice have 3 axies. The 1-6; 2-5; and 3-4. Lets call them x, y, and z in that order. This is not in dispute.

If you could set the dice so the oppisite sides of any of those axis are showing then make them land without moving (eg: drop them from one inch high straight down) you would never get a 7. This is not in dispute.

The more the dice knock around the more random the result should be. This could be in dispute, but seems logical.

If you could influence the dice from 1 7 per 6 rolls to 1 per 6.5 you would flip the house advantage. This is not in dispute, though if you could last into the long term on an average bankroll is. I will ignore the later portion for now.

So, if you could just influence the dice a very little you could flip the house advantage. I have seen the "Breaking Vegas" special a least 10 times and tried what they said both in dealer class and on monte carlo nights waiting for the players. I know it is not at all projectible, but in class I was the only one who could ever make more than one point. At the mc nights I can sometimes make the dice "catch" the wall and board so they just die, just like on TV. IF THEY CATCH LIKE THAT I can see how you can absolutely cut down on the number of 7s. Key is "if." At best I can do it 1 in 4 throws, though that could improve with practice.

So I keep the position let people set and try to control the dice. At worst it is no different than people who blow on them or whatever. At best it extends rolls.

Quote: thecesspit

I suspect JL has most of what he claims... just as I suspect you have done nicely out of VP in the past and may continue to in the future.

...

I was so hoping I could back-count you on my next trip to Vegas and make sure I could get myself comped on VP... ah well, I'll make do with a free beer or seven (I hope they still have fat Tire on tap) and a cheap room at the Orleans this time around... it's a sign of the times when casino's offer me free room (Gold Coast for two nights) considering my action is very low, and my attendance in Vegas is at best yearly. I don't chase comps, but if they come my way...

Some places give you free rooms pretty much for just showing up and playing for a little while; others give you nothing, nothing, nothing; still others are tightening up. The Gold Coast used to offer me 2-3 free nights/month + $20-40 food credit + $20 free slot play; their last mailer offered me "casino rate" on the weekends and two free weekday nights + $5 food credit + $5 slot play. I haven't played any differently on any of my visits this year: 10-15 total hours of single-line .25 NSUD, and some low-limit pai gow poker action (live poker is tracked separately there). But they've suddenly become very chintzy, at least in their offers to me. They've lost my business, and probably don't care :)

By contrast, I recently got an offer for three free nights, $50 free play, $40 food credit, and 5X points (which would be 1% cashback or 2% comps!) from the El Cortez. I give them the same general action I give the GC; it seems like one place wants my business, the other doesn't. South Point stopped sending me mailers last summer after I hit three royals in a weekend. The Palms stopped sending me mailers when I played only their positive games. FWIW, I played very little at the Orleans this year, but I do have a standing room offer for 2 nights +$10 free play, so I'm getting a better offer from the Orleans even though I play far more at the Gold Coast. I also get quite nice offers from Main Street Station: $30-40 free play and/or $40-50 food credit, and 3-4 free nights, once every month. The GC, Orleans, and MSS are all owned by the same company, so it appears that the GC hates me, the Orleans likes me, and the MSS loves me...or something...

I suspect Boyd move people between the different casinos and there's some collective plan. My friend gets offers from the Orleans and nothing from the Gold Coast, and have both properties reasonable action (as opposed to my flea bites).

Quote: JerryLogan

That's dumb. I've never said I was wealthy. On my and my wife's salaries we could never be. We just live good and make the most of what we've got. We also look with great expectations to the future, unlike your pal mkl, who only has past pretends to ponder.

For the record, earning $250,000 US a year puts you in around the top 2% of all household income in the United States.

Quote: ElectricDreams

For the record, earning $250,000 US a year puts you in around the top 2% of all household income in the United States.

Then I'm missing out on something. We have a normal home, 3 probably above avg. cars, and 2 kids in college. The most extravagant thing we do is go to LV now and then and the yearly vacation for 2 weeks somewhere. It must be the Starbucks.

Quote: ElectricDreams

For the record, earning $250,000 US a year puts you in around the top 2% of all household income in the United States.

I guess he plays a LOT of Double Double Bonus, and badly.

Quote: JerryLogan

Quote: ElectricDreams

For the record, earning $250,000 US a year puts you in around the top 2% of all household income in the United States.

Then I'm missing out on something. We have a normal home, 3 probably above avg. cars, and 2 kids in college. The most extravagant thing we do is go to LV now and then and the yearly vacation for 2 weeks somewhere. It must be the Starbucks.

You must be, as quarter a million a year is a lot of income. Income may not make you wealthy, but it's a good start. I'll leave that problem between you and your financial advisor.

I am a Pass Line & Come better with full odds. That's it. I don't believe you can influence the dice. BUT I do enjoy watching all the dice setters, schemers & superstitious that believe they can beat the casino. They are fun to watch. And when they hit, I applaud their good luck. But that's all it is is good luck.

Quote: thecesspit

You must be, as quarter a million a year is a lot of income. Income may not make you wealthy, but it's a good start. I'll leave that problem between you and your financial advisor.

I guess it's all relative. The money flies out the door with all the big checks we write to the colleges. If our income were less they'd obviously have to go to in-state schools.

Well controlled dice throwing is a hard and controversial theory till now. It requires lot of physical skill also. For that you need a lot of practice to master it. For a controlled dice throwing you need to place the dice in your hand in a proper manner so that on rolling the required outcome is received. But with that you need a good knowledge of craps also to have a good winning in craps.

I have posted this link before in a dice control thread, and thought I would bring it up again.

It is from a the 5th series of British TV Show "The Real Hustle" and the entire series is based on Las Vegas, and the scams that can befall you. I would urge anyone to watch it for entertainment, if not just to be warned.

This particular section focuses on dice control in a home made craps tub, on the back of a car. If you are stupid enough to get involved in that for money, you deserve to be swindled.

But the technique shows it is possible. The real test would be getting away with it in a casino, which I dont think is possible for any length of time, due to the casino set up.

The appropriate piece of video starts at around 1.30 in.

Quote: irbylamer

Well controlled dice throwing is a hard and controversial theory till now. It requires lot of physical skill also. For that you need a lot of practice to master it. For a controlled dice throwing you need to place the dice in your hand in a proper manner so that on rolling the required outcome is received. But with that you need a good knowledge of craps also to have a good winning in craps.

It's still a theory and is only advertised so snake oil salesmen like Stanford Wong and Frank Scoblete can make money because they can't win it in casinos. There's no such thing as being able to influence dice. Once the criticisms came out, these scam artists changed their pitch around to saying it wasn't all about making the dice do what you wanted to on most throws, but by increasing your chances over the course of a lot of throws. Total minimalization BS generated by being exposed. No one can do anything of the sort and no one ever has. It's impossible for a human being to throw the dice from the exact same position at the exact same speed at the exact same angle while hitting the same cones in the exact same position as a prior throw, unless they were extremely lucky once. That's like saying you found 2 snowflakes that were exactly the same. One thing these guys did do was cause concern in some pits because of all the suckers who buy that crap.

Quote: Wizard

My position is well known that I'm skeptical of it, but won't go so far as to say that nobody can influence the dice. I will say that I think that vast majority of those who think they can influence the dice, can't. I'll also so that I think there is much more money being made selling books and lessons on this topic than is actually made at the craps table. I've been asking for years for evidence that anybody can influence the dice, and I'll do so again now, but have never seen anything that couldn't be easily attributable to short-term luck.

Wizard


I have been following this question about someone controlling the dice now for years with great interest. What would be your parameters to see if there was any dice influencers in the real world?

There all some great fiction writers that at times I think works for the casinos, that are always writing about their exploits, where they write that they had hands like this one.

These were all the roll's they wrote they had in one day 31,17,2,9,2,20,24,5.21,16,18,24,16,22, and a 5 roll . This is just one of the many anecdotes where they say they have these type of rolls everyday that they play! Hell I would be tired just standing there that long to have all those rolls! Now I do know some damn good shooters, but unfortunately never seen one of them put together any thing like that, and just maybe when some of us read stuff like that, we have to question if this guy is just writing fiction!

I think so, and there are many reasons I would be questioning anybody that said they had these kind of rolls in one day, to start with the table would be full and there would just be to many stupid things happening on the table, and my list goes on and on!

Now the math of the game will tell us that anything over 8 roll of the dice is more than average.

So here is my question would you say that you would need to see so may rolls out of 20 that would be over 10 rolls of the dice or would it be more than that.

We all also know that you can't have one guy shooting for 10,000 rolls of the dice to prove this out, so where is the line you would feel comfortable with, to see if it could even be done?

Would it be the same guy shooting over three or four days with consistent rolls over what you think is luck?

Some of the experts in the casinos think that there maybe something to this dice setting thing or is it all a ploy to get more players buying into the dice setting thing when they start to give someone who is setting the dice a hard time when they are on a roll?

I would like to see a controlled type of test that maybe we could get a few of the guys that are selling everything about craps participate in, if they think they can beat the test!

Even with no takers it might be an eye opener for all that think they have the power to beat the crap tables!

Now I still think that some of the schools do a good job teaching the game of craps, and that their students might lose less by taking a class, and that there are some books out there, when the authors write their anecdotes they don't write fiction, and tell it like it is!

One of the problem I see is the players that will buy a book, and believe everything the authors has written, when they say they are winning hundreds of thousands of dollars a year playing craps!
If it sounds to good to be true it just might not be true! How gullible are we, does everybody look for that magic bullet when we go out and buy some of these books, or we read anything on one of the forums?

Are we willing to read fiction and take it as the truth, so some can live in a fantasy world, and be lead down the yellow brick road to losing money?

Funny you should ask. I was just speaking with Michael Bluejay about this yesterday. He seems very interested in doing such a test, and spoke about renting a craps table to do it.

To answer your question, three forms of evidence that I would entertain are:

1. A detailed log of results over thousands of throws.
2. Tax returns showing gambling wins.
3. An actual experiment with a regulation craps table.

Unfortunately, with option 3, at least 1,000 rolls would be required, and maybe more like 10,000, depending on the degree of skill the shooter claims. Michael Bluejay seems receptive to judging such an experiment. I'm open to putting a table in my garage. If you know of anyone who may be interested in this, feel free to direct them to this thread.

Quote: mkl654321

Actually, at the Palms, it's closer to $10/hr, which is why you practically need a gun to get on a machine on the FPDW progessive bank, unless it's 3 AM.

...and then you just need a vomit pail and some disinfectant? I have never seen more unreasonably intoxicated people in a casino than I saw at the Palms. And I was there at 8pm on a monday...

Quote: Wizard

Funny you should ask. I was just speaking with Michael Bluejay about this yesterday. He seems very interested in doing such a test, and spoke about renting a craps table to do it.

To answer your question, three forms of evidence that I would entertain are:

1. A detailed log of results over thousands of throws.
2. Tax returns showing gambling wins.
3. An actual experiment with a regulation craps table.

Unfortunately, with option 3, at least 1,000 rolls would be required, and maybe more like 10,000, depending on the degree of skill the shooter claims. Michael Bluejay seems receptive to judging such an experiment. I'm open to putting a table in my garage. If you know of anyone who may be interested in this, feel free to direct them to this thread.

What is the purpose of dice setting anyway? Does it supposedly allow for more 7's over random or something like that? In such a test of X amount of rolls, wouldn't yo also need a regular Joe there shooting the same number of rolls to judge against, or do you just use what the math says will occur?

Quote: superrick

These were all the roll's they wrote they had in one day 31,17,2,9,2,20,24,5.21,16,18,24,16,22, and a 5 roll . This is just one of the many anecdotes where they say they have these type of rolls everyday that they play! Hell I would be tired just standing there that long to have all those rolls! Now I do know some damn good shooters, but unfortunately never seen one of them put together any thing like that, and just maybe when some of us read stuff like that, we have to question if this guy is just writing fiction!

A shooters exception table. Length of a shooters hand.
This is a shorter version of The Wizards at:https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/

Roll	relative frequency	Do Not get Past	or less	or more	Roll	1 in to get past
1	0.00%	all get past one roll	0	100.00%	1	100%
2	11.11%	1 in 9.00	11.11%	88.89%	2	8 out of 9
3	11.68%	1 in 4.39	22.79%	77.21%	3	3.39 out of 4.39
4	10.48%	1 in 3.01	33.26%	66.74%	4	2.01 out of 3.01
5	9.12%	1 in 2.36	42.39%	57.61%	5	1.36 out of 2.36
6	7.89%	1 in 1.99	50.28%	49.72%	6	1 in 2.01
7	6.82%	1.33 out of 2.33 (4/7)	57.10%	42.90%	7	1 in 2.33
8	5.89%	1.7 out of 2.7	62.98%	37.02%	8	1 in 2.7
9	5.08%	2.13 out of 3.13	68.06%	31.94%	9	1 in 3.13
10	4.38%	2.63 out of 3.63	72.45%	27.55%	10	1 in 3.63
11	3.78%	3.21 out of 4.21	76.23%	23.77%	11	1 in 4.21
12	3.26%	3.88 out of 4.88	79.49%	20.51%	12	1 in 4.88
13	2.82%	4.65 out of 5.65	82.31%	17.69%	13	1 in 5.65
14	2.43%	5.55 out of 6.55	84.74%	15.26%	14	1 in 6.55
15	2.10%	6.6 out of 7.6	86.84%	13.16%	15	1 in 7.6
16	1.81%	7.81 out of 8.81	88.65%	11.35%	16	1 in 8.81
17	1.56%	9.21 out of 10.21	90.21%	9.79%	17	1 in 10.21
18	1.35%	10.84 out of 11.84	91.55%	8.45%	18	1 in 11.84
19	1.16%	12.73 out of 13.73	92.71%	7.29%	19	1 in 13.73
20	1.00%	14.91 out of 15.91	93.72%	6.28%	20	1 in 15.91

In my younger days, I would challenge, and win, those that professed to control the dice and have longer hands than others. They all lost.
All talk, with excuses to match.
The table above shows the most common number of rolls in a shooters hand is 3, followed by 2.
Track a game and you will see this to be true the more shooters that you have.

The median is 6! Half of all shooters DO NOT GET PAST 6 rolls before they 7out!
Only 1 in 3 shooters even get past 9 rolls
Only 1 in 10 can get past 17 rolls.

Then of course it is not ONLY the number of rolls that matter, it is the actual numbers that count.
I watched a "dice control expert a few months back, all talk, finally had a good roll, 25 rolls I think, but 1 in 3 rolls was a craps number.
Place bettors were crying, come bettors were pissed off. He finally 7out and did not even hit one point!
I had a great laugh!

Dice setters would show results very close to the above table.

JerryLogan

Quote: JerryLogan

What is the purpose of dice setting anyway? Does it supposedly allow for more 7's over random or something like that? In such a test of X amount of rolls, wouldn't yo also need a regular Joe there shooting the same number of rolls to judge against, or do you just use what the math says will occur?

Do you think that the regular Joe is going to make the same kind of rolls the DI is going to make over the test, would you say that they both could just get lucky at the same time?

Regular Joe shoots 1000 rolls and didn't get anywhere near what the math said they should make, as far as 8 rolls of the dice. They were way under that, we see that kind of performance everyday in the casino, that is all ready a proving fact!

On the other hand the guy that is setting the dice and gets on some good roll's every time they go to the casinos, everyone on that table will say that the shooter just got lucky, because that is what they believe, no one can do anything to chance the out-come of the game. So when they see someone on a roll it's just luck, in their minds, that is what you would be trying to prove it had nothing to do with luck, and that the shooter could change the outcome.

Now I don't think that the Tax return would have anything to do with it, and here is my reason why, they guy that plays all the time is not looking for the big wins, where they will have to pay taxes on their winnings, they are not the ones that are writing fiction and selling their books and schools, we all know that not one of these guys will come forward and show a tax return that claim to make hundreds of thousands a year playing craps, because they just might be writing fiction, they will not steep out from behind their curtain to show a tax return.

As a local player of craps I know what would happen if every time I steep up to the craps tables, and I walked away winning thousands of dollars, I would no longer be playing in any of the casinos in Vegas!
It should come as no surprise when the suits walked over to you and said these words, sir we no longer want your play in here!

That is one of the reasons I have a big problem with some of the writers, casinos do not like winners, and I don't care what kind of spin they put on their writings of anecdote, the casinos are not going to welcome you back if you can do what you are witting about, unless you are living in a fantasy world!

LOL Superrick

"Casinos do not like winners'. Incorrect. At a negative EV game like craps, the casino wants action, and whether you win or lose is irrelevant. Depending on what exact bet you make, the casino is taking a dollar or 2 of every hundred bet. Period. They will always welcome back a craps player who gives them action. Period.

Not only that, the casino NEEDS winners else to make them and other people want to come back... again and again and again.

Quote: rdw4potus

...and then you just need a vomit pail and some disinfectant? I have never seen more unreasonably intoxicated people in a casino than I saw at the Palms. And I was there at 8pm on a monday...

The grim-faced locals are drinking coffee, and they tip the waitress 50 cents when she brings it. It's kind of funny to watch them, actually. When one of them hits four deuces ($250), they don't even change expression, and when one of them hits a royal, everybody else frowns briefly at him (because the royal jackpot has just been reset to only $1000), but then they immediately return to their labors. It's like watching a room full of Swiss watchmakers, or maybe embalmers at a funeral home.

Quote: Wizard

Funny you should ask. I was just speaking with Michael Bluejay about this yesterday. He seems very interested in doing such a test, and spoke about renting a craps table to do it.

To answer your question, three forms of evidence that I would entertain are:

1. A detailed log of results over thousands of throws.

Who's the record keeper? I have seen many such logs, but they were nothing but unsubstantiated, self-serving reports.

Quote: Wizard

3. An actual experiment with a regulation craps table.

Unfortunately, with option 3, at least 1,000 rolls would be required, and maybe more like 10,000, depending on the degree of skill the shooter claims. Michael Bluejay seems receptive to judging such an experiment. I'm open to putting a table in my garage. If you know of anyone who may be interested in this, feel free to direct them to this thread.

There are really two approaches to this that I am aware of. The statistical approach is very difficult, because so many throws are required to reach a level of confidence that would convince me (us). I think the test should be done with one set, and the total number of throws compared to the number of results that are "on axis", i.e. that are among the 16 outcomes possible if the dice stay on the axis of rotation. We expect 44.4% of those with random rolling, anyway.

The other approach would require many fewer throws, but lots more equipment, i.e. video equipment. In order to restrict the outcomes to the 16 on-axis results, the dice must NEVER LEAVE the axis of rotation. Once they do, it's a random roll. Each throw would be filmed with a super-slo-mo camera so that we could see the dice clearly all the way from the shooter's hand to when they come to rest. If a die stays on axis all the way, it's a success; else, it's a failure. Results would be kept for each die, since they are not stuck together.

If you use the appropriate sets and bet accordingly, it only takes about 10% efficacy to gain a small advantage. By that I mean that 10% of the throws stay on axis all the way, and cannot show any of the 20 "forbidden" results. I have simulated various degrees of efficacy in WinCraps, using the Game/Configure/Probability screen; you can set the probabilities for each die, so that one die could remain on axis and the other not, just like in the real world.

I have never seen a video of a throw that I believed met this test. Usually, the video shows the shooter release the dice, then shows them land, so you can't even tell whether it's the same throw.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Quote: Croupier

I have posted this link before in a dice control thread, and thought I would bring it up again.

It is from a the 5th series of British TV Show "The Real Hustle" and the entire series is based on Las Vegas, and the scams that can befall you. I would urge anyone to watch it for entertainment, if not just to be warned.

This particular section focuses on dice control in a home made craps tub, on the back of a car. If you are stupid enough to get involved in that for money, you deserve to be swindled.

But the technique shows it is possible. The real test would be getting away with it in a casino, which I dont think is possible for any length of time, due to the casino set up.

The technique shows it is possible only with the setup in the video, which is very different from a casino craps table. In fact, the host specifically says that it doesn't apply to use in a casino. You cannot slide the dice in a casino, even once, and you will very quickly be told to hit the back wall if you fail to do so more than once.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Alan

I am not going to quote you on this but no dice stay on axis when they hit the table, unless they would just stop dead, when they hit the table, how do I know this, because I have shot the dice hitting the table with a slo-mo camera. If the dice stay on axis or not what you are looking for is the outcome of every shot. There are also different shooters that do not use an on axis shot to do what they do!

What you would be trying to prove is the outcome that is above what your Win Craps say in the normal out come! How the guy does it doesn't , matter, unless he is sliding the dice!

If the dice leave his hands and he beats the normal, he must be doing something with the dice, that the guy that is just slinging the dice is not doing!

You can make anything impossible to prove with the restraints you want to put on the shooter.
The Wizard came up with a good plan, why make it impossible!

LOL Superrick

Quote: superrick

If the dice leave his hands and he beats the normal, he must be doing something with the dice, that the guy that is just slinging the dice is not doing!

This is backwards. The real test of control is whether the realized dice distribution is changed in a statistically significant way, not whether the guy "beats the normal". You can "beat the normal" just by getting lucky, making the right bets at the right times. Altering the dice distribution in a significant way isn't something that you can do by luck.

Quote: MathExtremist

This is backwards. The real test of control is whether the realized dice distribution is changed in a statistically significant way, not whether the guy "beats the normal". You can "beat the normal" just by getting lucky, making the right bets at the right times. Altering the dice distribution in a significant way isn't something that you can do by luck.

Depends on how you define "significant". Even at the 99% level of confidence, the odds are only 99-1 against an outcome occurring by chance. But if you're looking for "six sigma", you need a hell of a lot of rolls or a degree of efficacy that even the "controlled shooting" crowd don't claim.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Quote: superrick

Alan

I am not going to quote you on this but no dice stay on axis when they hit the table

Yes, that's really my point.

Quote: superrick

, unless they would just stop dead, when they hit the table,

Yes, that's the idea; the dice hit the table softly, they hit the underside of the first row of pyramids and drop right back, never having left their axis of rotation (or non-rotation, if that's the technique). That is how the ideal shot was described during many long debates on rec.gambling.craps.

Quote: superrick

how do I know this, because I have shot the dice hitting the table with a slo-mo camera. If the dice stay on axis or not what you are looking for is the outcome of every shot. There are also different shooters that do not use an on axis shot to do what they do!

But the outcome of any shot, even if it's one of the "perfect 16", does not indicate any control, since we expect those outcomes 44.4% of the time, anyway. That's why it is so difficult to do an experiment using just results.

Quote: superrick

You can make anything impossible to prove with the restraints you want to put on the shooter.
The Wizard came up with a good plan, why make it impossible!LOL Superrick

I'm not putting any restraints on the shooter, except the ones the casinos do -- throw them down the table and hit the back wall. If the dice bounce off axis, then the result is going to be random. That's why the tables are bouncy and that's why they have pyramids on the walls - to ensure random results, which in turn ensures profits for the casino.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA