Stop vulturing MUST HIT after bonus round?

$50 must hit at $48.xx.
$3 coin-in moves the meter .01

got bonus games within the 1st 10 spins.
now up +$25 overall, which is half of the must hit.

quit and walk away? or continue vulturing?
Why?

If $3 coin in = $0.01 meter rise, assuming house edge of the machine is 15%, you would want to play when the meter at $48.89 or higher.

Hitting a bonus feature early on does not change the return of the game.

Quote: 100xOdds

$50 must hit at $48.xx.
$3 coin-in moves the meter .01

got bonus games within the 1st 10 spins.
now up +$25 overall, which is half of the must hit.

quit and walk away? or continue vulturing?
Why?

Show Spoiler

Lost the $25 plus $60 more before getting the Must Hit.
so -$10 overall.

Being results oriented?
continue vulturing is a good bet?

Walk away and do what?
Why did you start playing it in the first place?
Are you going to ever jump on one in the future at $48.xx. If so, whats the difference between the machine you are playing and one you might find in the future?
Being up or down shouldn't affect your decision to stop or continue.
Once you add money to the meter that's, even more of a reason you should stay.
One can argue to stop and spend your time looking for something better. But then you got to ask yourself why you started playing it in the first place.

This is a very strange question.

Quote: sabre

This is a very strange question.

Are you talking about the OP's original question?

I don't know that's it's a strange question.I have been asked and heard the question quite a few times.
I used to see it all the time on banking/accumulator slots. Ill take piggy banking machines for example. There were guys(bonus hunters) that would find the bank in the 25 to 30 coin range. They would jump on and start playing. If they hit something good right away on the reels they would jump off. You would see them playing one down the way an hour later at 23 in the bank. It made no sense to me, but I was glad they were doing that.

100xodds, why do you think you get these reactions?

Quote: 100xOdds

quit and walk away? or continue vulturing?

I'm a very unconventional AP, known for quitting plays (Some APs wait while I'm playing for just this reason). On the play in question, I would usually quit after (a) getting 1/2 the EV (b) machine is still <110-125%, lousy meter $3.00/penny (c) I don't need 150-450 coin-in at the casino.

-----
The first decision when playing a must-hit is: (a) Do I play now? (b) Do I wait nearby for the machine to get better? (c) Do I wait kind of nearby ...while perhaps playing some other things, and risking the loss of this play to another AP or dedicated player? (c) Do I revisit in a few min/hrs/days/weeks?

Note: There are other decisions when not suitably bankrolled (e.g. Negative CE, but positive EV).

Once starting to play, some people never stop until (a) getting must-hit (b) running out of cash (c) getting kicked out of casino (d) machine malfunctions, cash box full, etc... (e) wife/husband calls with family emergency (f) departure bus is leaving (g) have to go to work.

------
Why would one stop playing a must-hit after a "big" win?

1) Is there a chance of getting machine back at a higher EV? This depends on one's knowledge of local players and APs.

2) Does the machine have high variance, and still have relatively low EV? For instance, leaving a machine which is so high that you can spend $10 to drop $50 guaranteed...would be foolish. But if the machine is still 105%, and it may cost -$450 to drop $50, leaving might make sense. Where is your personal deciding line?

For example,
Before play: (A) Play 103% machine. (B) Don't play 103% machine. (with B1 - leave, B2 - wait, B3 - revisit every hour, etc...)
During play: (A) Won $X. Continue playing 105% machine. (B) Won $X. Quit playing 105% machine (with B1, B2, etc...) (C) Call friend and give them machine (or chop 50/50).

The decisions before & during play are slightly different.
Leaving the play after a big win may have LOWER variance.

Note: One option is to continue playing at minimum bet (or as low as manageable) to lower variance.

3) Some people manage daily/weekly/monthly variance, not just a "long run" view.
For example, some might quit each day after earning $100.

So a $25 win may be enough to quit for the day.

-------
-------
Some medium-budget/high-budget AP criticize low-budget APs who make many CE-based decisions (bankroll-based decisions which have lower EV).

So here's an alternate example (made-up. I don't know any $200K progressives).
1) You've decided to play a $200K progressive at a fairly low number (say 190,000).
2) At 190,050, you hit $100,000 (or $400,000 to $800,000).
3) Do you take your profit & run?
4) Is the answer the same for Konami, WMS, Ainsworth, AGS, or other manufacturer?

Quote: 100xOdds

$50 must hit at $48.xx.
$3 coin-in moves the meter .01

got bonus games within the 1st 10 spins.
now up +$25 overall, which is half of the must hit.

quit and walk away? or continue vulturing?
Why?

Show Spoiler

Lost the $25 plus $60 more before getting the Must Hit.
so -$10 overall.

Being results oriented?
continue vulturing is a good bet?

Fyi, it is not a vulture when you play it incorrectly.

Quote: mamat

I'm a very unconventional AP, known for quitting plays (Some APs wait while I'm playing for just this reason). On the play in question, I would usually quit after (a) getting 1/2 the EV (b) machine is still <110-125%, lousy meter $3.00/penny (c) I don't need 150-450 coin-in at the casino.

-----
The first decision when playing a must-hit is: (a) Do I play now? (b) Do I wait nearby for the machine to get better? (c) Do I wait kind of nearby ...while perhaps playing some other things, and risking the loss of this play to another AP or dedicated player? (c) Do I revisit in a few min/hrs/days/weeks?

Note: There are other decisions when not suitably bankrolled (e.g. Negative CE, but positive EV).

Once starting to play, some people never stop until (a) getting must-hit (b) running out of cash (c) getting kicked out of casino (d) machine malfunctions, cash box full, etc... (e) wife/husband calls with family emergency (f) departure bus is leaving (g) have to go to work.

------
Why would one stop playing a must-hit after a "big" win?

1) Is there a chance of getting machine back at a higher EV? This depends on one's knowledge of local players and APs.

2) Does the machine have high variance, and still have relatively low EV? For instance, leaving a machine which is so high that you can spend $10 to drop $50 guaranteed...would be foolish. But if the machine is still 105%, and it may cost -$450 to drop $50, leaving might make sense. Where is your personal deciding line?

For example,
Before play: (A) Play 103% machine. (B) Don't play 103% machine. (with B1 - leave, B2 - wait, B3 - revisit every hour, etc...)
During play: (A) Won $X. Continue playing 105% machine. (B) Won $X. Quit playing 105% machine (with B1, B2, etc...) (C) Call friend and give them machine (or chop 50/50).

The decisions before & during play are slightly different.
Leaving the play after a big win may have LOWER variance.

Note: One option is to continue playing at minimum bet (or as low as manageable) to lower variance.

3) Some people manage daily/weekly/monthly variance, not just a "long run" view.
For example, some might quit each day after earning $100.

So a $25 win may be enough to quit for the day.

-------
-------
Some medium-budget/high-budget AP criticize low-budget APs who make many CE-based decisions (bankroll-based decisions which have lower EV).

So here's an alternate example (made-up. I don't know any $200K progressives).
1) You've decided to play a $200K progressive at a fairly low number (say 190,000).
2) At 190,050, you hit $100,000 (or $400,000 to $800,000).
3) Do you take your profit & run?
4) Is the answer the same for Konami, WMS, Ainsworth, AGS, or other manufacturer?

I think it would depend on your bankroll size. 100k could change your AP situation significantly and put you in a position to make more money on much less risky plays.

Quote: mamat

I'm a very unconventional AP, known for quitting plays (Some APs wait while I'm playing for just this reason). On the play in question, I would usually quit after (a) getting 1/2 the EV (b) machine is still <110-125%, lousy meter $3.00/penny (c) I don't need 150-450 coin-in at the casino.

-----
The first decision when playing a must-hit is: (a) Do I play now? (b) Do I wait nearby for the machine to get better? (c) Do I wait kind of nearby ...while perhaps playing some other things, and risking the loss of this play to another AP or dedicated player? (c) Do I revisit in a few min/hrs/days/weeks?

Note: There are other decisions when not suitably bankrolled (e.g. Negative CE, but positive EV).

Once starting to play, some people never stop until (a) getting must-hit (b) running out of cash (c) getting kicked out of casino (d) machine malfunctions, cash box full, etc... (e) wife/husband calls with family emergency (f) departure bus is leaving (g) have to go to work.

------
Why would one stop playing a must-hit after a "big" win?

1) Is there a chance of getting machine back at a higher EV? This depends on one's knowledge of local players and APs.

2) Does the machine have high variance, and still have relatively low EV? For instance, leaving a machine which is so high that you can spend $10 to drop $50 guaranteed...would be foolish. But if the machine is still 105%, and it may cost -$450 to drop $50, leaving might make sense. Where is your personal deciding line?

For example,
Before play: (A) Play 103% machine. (B) Don't play 103% machine. (with B1 - leave, B2 - wait, B3 - revisit every hour, etc...)
During play: (A) Won $X. Continue playing 105% machine. (B) Won $X. Quit playing 105% machine (with B1, B2, etc...) (C) Call friend and give them machine (or chop 50/50).

The decisions before & during play are slightly different.
Leaving the play after a big win may have LOWER variance.

Note: One option is to continue playing at minimum bet (or as low as manageable) to lower variance.

3) Some people manage daily/weekly/monthly variance, not just a "long run" view.
For example, some might quit each day after earning $100.

So a $25 win may be enough to quit for the day.

-------
-------
Some medium-budget/high-budget AP criticize low-budget APs who make many CE-based decisions (bankroll-based decisions which have lower EV).

So here's an alternate example (made-up. I don't know any $200K progressives).
1) You've decided to play a $200K progressive at a fairly low number (say 190,000).
2) At 190,050, you hit $100,000 (or $400,000 to $800,000).
3) Do you take your profit & run?
4) Is the answer the same for Konami, WMS, Ainsworth, AGS, or other manufacturer?

I don't play progressive slots, but it's my understanding you need a significantly huge bankroll compared to the actual progressive amount. It's not like someone with a $20k BR is going to be able to play a $200k game (unless it's at like $199.9k or something).

CE should always be a positive number. If you are playing a game with a negative CE, then you're basically just gambling and the luck/variance has more of a basis on your wins than does the actual advantage. In simple terms, it'd be like Bill Gates offering a perfectly 50/50 coin-flip, where he pays you 1.01 to 1 (a 0.5% advantage). The catch is, you have to bet $10k a flip. If you have a small bankroll, then luck is going to be a much more significant factor whether you win or lose in that situation, assuming you can do it forever or until you bust out. It might be +EV, even if you have a $20k BR, but the CE is going to be negative. Now, if you have a $10M bankroll, the EV is going to be the same (on a per-flip basis), but the CE is going to be positive because you don't have the same risk as the $20k BR guy.



The only time you should quit when playing something that's +EV due to the win or loss (and not talking about heat, emergencies, personal life, something better coming up mid play, etc.), is if you've won so much that playing this game is no longer a high ROI for your bankroll. For instance, maybe you have a $10k bankroll and found a promotion where if you hit BAR-BAR-BAR on mega bucks you get an extra $100 payout (example).....and by chance, you hit the progressive for $10 million. At this point, playing the BAR-BAR-BAR promotion is still +EV, but you could be doing something much more valuable with that $10M. Of course, that's an extreme example since for the most part, you're not going to be playing something that has such a huge upside with a small bankroll, if you're playing within your means.


The other side, of course, is you're just getting absolutely crushed on a play and your bankroll is no longer big enough for the game you're playing. If you're on a shorter term play, like you have to earn X points for Y prize, you should have a sufficient bankroll going into it such that you can complete the play requirement comfortably, even if you run really bad. Having to quit in the middle of a short term play is something you absolutely don't want to have to do because you will have given up value while playing and won't be able to get the 'prize' for completing the play through requirement. So at the start, you might have a 1% advantage going forward. But then towards the end, you may only need a little bit more coin in to go and then you get a bigger prize, relative to what you have to do, so now it's a 10% or 20% advantage (from this point going forward). Not something you want to quit on.



As far as the $200k progressive example, if I felt my bankroll was large enough to handle that game, then yes, I would keep playing it. If a bankroll of $20M is required to play that game, then surely a bankroll of $20.4M or $20.8M is also going to be large enough to handle the variance.

Quote: GWAE

Fyi, it is not a vulture when you play it incorrectly.

how did I play it incorrectly?

Quote: 100xOdds

how did I play it incorrectly?

I hope you don't mind me answering... I think they mean that they define vulturing as looking for X condition, taking Y action, until Z occurs.

Sounds like you skipped the Z part by leaving before the minor was paid.

What is CE shorthand for?