SHOOTING at Mandalay festival

Quote: ZenKinG

The private banking cartels charging interest on paper money created out of thin air that the government can print constitutionally without any interest.

END the FED!

I was writing about human relationships. Perhaps you knew that? I'm a little confused by the involvement of a Filipino in all this. I used to love going there and living in the twilight zone for a few weeks. However, as we age things change. Why and how he sent $100,000.usd to this girlfriend and how she claims not to remember anything about his guns despite visiting a gun store with him is just as I say, confusing causing a need to slam one's own head against a concrete wall with urine on it.

Quote: Mission146

Likewise, I’m sleepy and probably talking out of my backside anyway. Constitution is fine, probably, Second Amendment not written when these sorts of weapons that are available now existed, though.

Constitution not written when cell phones storing a zillion contacts and call information where ubiquitous, utterly beyond the ken of the founding fathers yet in addressing the issue of could a jailor paw thru a cell phone the reasoning was the founding fathers said he could not paw thru an envelope since a letter was not a weapon and held that the individual communication would be protrected from governmental intrusion despite amazing technological advances.

Want amendments? The Income Tax, Prohibition?

Quote: beachbumbabs

Who says the hammer was effective in breaking the windows?

Good for you!! Even a construction tool would be unlikely to shatter the curtain wall glass in a modern skyscraper. Run full speed into it, ram a housekeeping cart into it, have two jerks carrying a ladder trip and fall against the glass, It would not break.

Quote: RS

I think FleaStiff is usually wrong on stuff

Gee, I thought we were pals..

Quote: RS

....but he makes a point that makes sense to me. If something is illegal to do and people are still going to do it anyway, then it can become much more dangerous.?

Such as Red Light Camera laws that increase revenue AND speeding.

By the way, do you really want to see the stats on:
cell phone related accidents prior to legislation versus cell phone related accidents after legislation?

Quote: RS

. I'm fairly neutral on drug laws and whatnot, but in one aspect, I can see how keeping drugs illegal makes us less safe.

There is almost always a downside.

I believe places like China couldn't put up with the opium den situation because of it was turning people into useless slugs and beggars, and of course they didn't take care of themselves or surroundings. and trashed the area. And if they had families to support, they ended up in bad situations as well because that wasn't taken care of.

Would you prefer that? Maybe some would.

Quote: Rigondeaux

On the third hand, my understanding that is in Switzerland everybody has a gun but it's all very boring, almost a chore. And I think they do OK.

Citizens have a rifle and ammunition; officers also must have a pistol and ammunition and this law is enforced with inspections that make sure equipment is well oiled and uniforms still fit the wearer.

concerning additional accomplices....and or conspiracy theories.

Sure, he could have had help. But I see virtually everything he accomplished as being possible by one person. So, it's not necessary that he had help.
Though, of course, he may have.

Quote: rxwine

There is almost always a downside.

I believe places like China couldn't put up with the opium den situation because of it was turning people into useless slugs and beggars, and of course they didn't take care of themselves or surroundings. and trashed the area. And if they had families to support, they ended up in bad situations as well because that wasn't taken care of..

Those stories are largely mythical. China was opposed to opium culture or use solely for financial reasons. The British sent chests of opium to China as sort of a balance of payments solution since China sold tea and silk and this and that but never bought anything.


Read the memoirs of people in San Francisco and Seattle who patronized Opium Dens and Majong Clubs. No great vast hordes of dissolute layabuts at all.

Quote: Rigondeaux

On the third hand, my understanding that is in Switzerland everybody has a gun but it's all very boring, almost a chore. And I think they do OK.

I just got tired of thinking of running up and down those mountains to enjoy some gun violence. Maybe that's it. Too much work to run around killing people.

Quote: rxwine

concerning additional accomplices....and or conspiracy theories.
Sure, he could have had help. But I see virtually everything he accomplished as being possible by one person. So, it's not necessary that he had help. ... Though, of course, he may have.

He does not seem to have been living a lifestyle that involved a great many acquaintances. Seems a solitary life dealing with debits, credits, real estate, advantage play and that's about it. Solitary money counting type. Nothing team oriented or group oriented.

Overheard rumors on local AM radio on the drive home:

He paid off his (I forget if it was $10k or $100k) marker a few days earlier. (That was from someone who claimed to be his host.)
Someone made millions shorting MGM.
Someone made millions investing heavily in the top two American gun stocks.
There must have been a second shooter due to the types of guns and ammunition up there.
Attack was Isis style.
Also that Hillary politicized this too soon.

Quote: FleaStiff

Those stories are largely mythical. China was opposed to opium culture or use solely for financial reasons. The British sent chests of opium to China as sort of a balance of payments solution since China sold tea and silk and this and that but never bought anything.


Read the memoirs of people in San Francisco and Seattle who patronized Opium Dens and Majong Clubs. No great vast hordes of dissolute layabuts at all.

But that's what I would write too if I wanted to keep using.

Seems like it would continue and spread if it was really doing no harm.

Quote: ZenKinG

I get it, i exaggerated with the 'no laws' thing, im sure you understood what I was trying to get at though. It's just basic psychology and how humans are wired. Watch what happens in Nevada now that weed is legal and compare it to when it was illegal. Once something becomes easy to get, the 'thrill' is gone, plain and simple. Most of what is done with drugs or drinking is done for the 'thrill' of part of it is the 'illegal' factor.

I think your wrong about the weed analogy. Plenty of people doing it more so now. I actually prefer it being illegal. I was paying 500 to 600 for 3 ounces and I went to one of the Legal Shops recently to buy someone an ounce for a birthday gift and the total was 480 for the ounce. The street stuff just as high quality. Alcohol being legal seems to be doing just fine compared to when it was illegal. They turned the whole street of Fremont into a Bar.

Quote: Mooseton

Overheard rumors on local AM radio on the drive home:

He paid off his (I forget if it was $10k or $100k) marker a few days earlier. (That was from someone who claimed to be his host.)
Someone made millions shorting MGM.
Someone made millions investing heavily in the top two American gun stocks.
There must have been a second shooter due to the types of guns and ammunition up there.
Attack was Isis style.
Also that Hillary politicized this too soon.

Now that is interesting. Especially the part of the MGM Stock and American Gun Stocks.

Quote: boymimbo

Casinos' icing are the high rollers, the ones flown in, playing Baccarat or Blackjack for $xxx thousand a hand. You can see it on the gaming reports. The ploppies are the engine but it is really the high rollers that bring in the bonuses.

I can accept and agree with that statement. However, I am pretty sure this guy was more of an AP compared to some High Roller type playing Big BJ or Big Bac!? It appears that he was playing winners and showing losers. I mean it will mean nothing to me if they find out in the Casino he was losing huge amounts of money. Those records mean nothing in reality but I understand that the Media and General Public will think he was some degenerate gambler who was always losing. I know one player last year who had 1.2 million coin in on machines and showed a 34k loss on his win/loss statement. According to his records he was winning 36k in cash alone... go figure!?

Quote: rxwine

There is almost always a downside.

I believe places like China couldn't put up with the opium den situation because of it was turning people into useless slugs and beggars, and of course they didn't take care of themselves or surroundings. and trashed the area. And if they had families to support, they ended up in bad situations as well because that wasn't taken care of.

Would you prefer that? Maybe some would.

I should probably clarify.

I meant neutral as in I'm not particularly for legalization nor keeping drugs. I think the reasons for keeping drugs illegal are obvious so I won't bother stating them. But the benefit of legalizing them would be the drugs are more pure, meaning there are fewer adulterants in them. The same reason why you probably trust the drugs at your pharmaceutical (holy crap I spelled that correctly on the first try!) and likely don't trust the junkie on the street with the same drug, supposedly. Not to mention, drug cartels make their money from, well, selling drugs that are illegal.

So I think I'm relatively neutral on the subject and lean towards keeping drugs illegal.

Quote: FleaStiff

Citizens have a rifle and ammunition; officers also must have a pistol and ammunition and this law is enforced with inspections that make sure equipment is well oiled and uniforms still fit the wearer.

All Swiss males are required to serve in the military, first on active duty and then in the reserves up to the age of 34 (for officers its 52). They get issued a rifle when they first join up and then keep it at home while in the reserves. Prior to 2007 they were also issued ammo to keep at home but it was in sealed pouches and there were stiff penalties if they opened without authorization. Every year they have some degree of training but the intensity varies with those in less critical roles or who are older having what essentially is a hike in the mountains followed by a picnic. I remember being in the Zurich train station and seeing several small groups of guys heading out for weekend training with rifles slung over their shoulder. The type of rifle depended on their age with the oldest carrying what looked like M-1s (this was in 1982). The weird thing was while some were wearing standard army camo, about 1/3 were wearing lederhosen.
Anyone interested in learning more about the Swiss Army or just looking for a good read, I highly recommend "La Place de Concorde Suisse" by John McPhee

Quote: gamerfreak

Here is Mike's bit from an article I found:

So this article was on Yahoo and I read a bunch of the comments which are usually the best part IMO.

Most comments were like this and a few comments were more educated about how things work.

The thing I like is that this is the general consensus from the public which is a good thing for APs IMO.

Some of these comments may have been jokes but most of them are serious IMO.

Here are a few in no order and I didn't copy the screen names of the users...

Poker strategy only works when you are playing against humans that can use the art of the bluff. On video machines, it's more about luck and probability. For every $100,000 he "won" he probably lost $300,000. But a gambler doesn't count the loss.

Perhaps Paddock #$%$ out, lost his life savings. His brother said his net worth was $2 million. I've seen people go though that amount in gambling in a year or two. Gambling is an addiction. Perhaps losing his life savings was his motivation for the attack?

Video poker is rigged. To think it's "not" programmed to let the house win is a dim perspective.

I play poker for a living, video poker is extremely addictive. I have seen it ruin many people's lives. Some ppl that are into this need serious help.

They can change the odds by the turn of a screw. One-armed bandits are ridiculous.

EVERY GAME FAVORS THE HOUSE MORON

First of all moron, the machines are not controlled by the casino's. They are all controlled in Reno by AGS so that there is an independent company that controls/repairs/programs the machines. They cannot be manipulated as you say. That is why they call it gambling idiot.

Uhh duh? You can prove it yourself if you play .25 to .50 per turn then you'll win a lot more often, but if you up the bet to a full dollar or more, you'll lose a lot more often. It's not rocket science.. the trick is to lose at the lower end for a few turns then try your luck on a high stakes round or two. The trick is to limit the amount you play.. I spend $20 a week at the most. Sometimes I've walked away with $80, sometimes I lose the $20... if you enjoy it and limit yourself it can be enjoyable.... moderation: like everything in life.

The house wins until the player hits a royal flush. That might or might not make the player an overall winner.

Th NY Times is now hinting that the AP lifestyle might be to blame (I told everyone it was coming):

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/us/stephen-paddock-gambling.html


And here, a 538 statistician changes his pro gun-control views after actually looking at the numbers:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-used-to-think-gun-control-was-the-answer-my-research-told-me-otherwise/2017/10/03/d33edca6-a851-11e7-92d1-58c702d2d975_story.html?utm_term=.2690bf282428

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gun-deaths/


It just took me 16 minutes to post this from start to finish and I'm still about 8 pages behind on the thread so I won't be checking back in until this evening. Just too frustrating

The New York Times, if correct, depicts the guy as a gambling addict loner who played high limit, by himself, which is what he probably could afford. He got the perks of the hotel, food, etc.

Interesting that he called to complain about the room below twice for playing country music too loud.

It will be interesting to find out what the girlfriend really knows.

Lots of more information coming to paint a circumstantial picture of this psychopath.

Quote: Skeptic

Th NY Times is now hinting that the AP lifestyle might be to blame (I told everyone it was coming):

AP lifestyle can work for someone who is normal, or anti-social. It doesn't discriminate. On that, I see no problem.

Quote: MrV

Please tell me exactly what portions of the constitution need to be changed; then tell me the terms of the new, replacement terms you want in the constitution.

OK, this part:

Section 1

2: Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

ie:

"The Electoral College is a process, not a place. The founding fathers established it in the Constitution as a compromise between election of the President by a vote in Congress and election of the President by a popular vote of qualified citizens".

https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/about.html

- It is time for our country to have presidential elections based on the popular vote.

I know we have debated this a few years ago, but that's what should be changed. In fact, I think it could be argued that the Electoral College was designed in part to prevent a person like trump from being elected. Wasn't it also a huge compromise to the small states at the time, to entice them to join with the others to create a Federal government ?

I am not concerned about the small states. They are already vastly over-represented in terms of population by the Senate. The governors and state legislatures represent the citizens of the state on state level issues. The Federal government, and the president in particular, should be representing all the country's citizens, ONE PERSON ONE (equal) VOTE.

Quote: FleaStiff

What deer hunter needs thirty round magazines?

One who is a bad shot.

Or one who needs to take down a pack of coyotes a few times a year. A semi-auto ar-15 is perfect for this and is the difference between getting one or six. Good for wild hogs too.

I had to do that about three weeks ago (again) on my sisters property before they killed all of her pets this year. Guess that makes me a monster.

Quote: Skeptic

Or one who needs to take down a pack of coyotes a few times a year. A semi-auto ar-15 is perfect for this and is the difference between getting one or six. Fun for hogs too.

I had to do that about three weeks ago (again) on my sisters property before they killed all of her pets this year. Guess that makes me a monster.

Um, no, hopefully that makes you a responsible gun owner and rancher or whatever, and the coyotes are poaching your stock and legally varmints.

The points being:

you have the right tool for what you are lawfully doing with it.

You only need one such rifle, not 40 or so.

You confine its use to lawful activities.

You are properly licensed, registered, and trained in its use, including storage and protection from minors except as supervised.

IMO, there is no reason you should face further restriction or removal.of that weapon. Nor should anyone else who is a similarly responsible gun owner.

But, why should someone own 12, 30, 40 of those? You can only shoot one rifle at a time.

Why should someone need to have armor-piercing bullets, bump stocks, 100 round drums, stuff like that? Who needs one in city limits? There, it's about as useful as a combine (not).

So, yes, people should need to justify ownership above some multiple of guns. And have good reason to own the types and number they have. And justify possession of more than some amount of ammo, and what kind.

Did you know the latest figure I can find, there are 112.6 guns owned per 100 people in the US? That seems a bit excessive. In fact, the second highest rate is Sebia 75.6/100, then Cyprus 36.4/100, and all other countries below 32/100. Seems like a stupid thing to lead the world in. (Source: wiki worldwide gun stats ).

Here's another interesting stat. In the US, deaths per day by gun are 93. About 1/3 homicides, 2/3 suicides, with tiny ~1% each for accidents, killed by officers, and undetermined circumstance. Period of measurement, 5 year avg, 2011-2016. Source, Brady institute/fbi.

By contrast, the death by day (killed in combat)rates for major US wars for the duration of each:

Revolutionary War, 3.52
Civil War 120.35
WW1 127.76
WW2 213.60
Vietnam 8.96
Afghanistan + Iraq 1.60

Source wiki, deaths in American wars. Note: thsee rates do not include casualties by illness, starvation, other causes: just combat losses.

We are losing 26 times the people now than we did when the 2nd Amendment was written. It's our 4th most deadly war, and it's on our own soil.

Doing nothing is not an option.

Your numbers are meaningless with 2/3's of gun deaths being suicide. Fact is gun crimes have declined dramatically over the past 25 years while ownership of semi-automatic rifles has skyrocketed during the same period.

The funny thing about rights is that I don't have to justify my exercising them to anyone, not even you. I don't ask you to justify the freedom to do what you do in Vegas despite the evidence showing societal harm.

Look, I think sitting in front of a slot machine for 10 hours risking $1000 just to earn a free $20 buffet is batshit insane but I'll fight for your right to do it. That's the difference between you and I. You don't understand something or don't enjoy doing it then it's OK to take it away from those who do.

Quote: Skeptic

Look, I think sitting in front of a slot machine for 10 hours risking $1000 just to earn a free $20 buffet is batshit insane but I'll fight for your right to do it. That's the difference between you and I. You don't understand something or don't enjoy doing it then it's OK to take it away from those who do.

I officially concede the argument. 372 people have died as a direct result of my playing a machine, I tried to hide it, but you’re calling me on it now.

Quote: Mission146

I officially concede the argument. 372 people have died as a direct result of my playing a machine, I tried to hide it, but you’re calling me on it now.

Well M146, you knew it was only a matter of time before this came out.

But good for you, the first step in fixing a problem is admitting you have one. I wish you good luck in your rehab.

The iidea that suicides are fine and nothing to be concerned about is a little odd.

Quote: gamerfreak

Here is Mike's bit from an article I found:

Michael Shackleford, who runs a gambling strategy website called The Wizard of Odds, said based on what is known of Paddock’s life, the gunman seems to have been what the casinos refer to as a “premium mass” player — one who bets in higher amounts, with a better understanding of the game than the typical player.

Premium mass players pay close attention to the odds in the game they’re playing and the payout, and they typically need access to a lot of money because they may have long dry spells where they lose exorbitant amounts.

Eventually, Shackleford said, if players stay true to a perfect strategy — one designed to maximize their performance over the long haul, such as by getting rid of potentially decent cards like low pairs to increase chances of a big-payout royal flush — their luck will turn, based on statistics, and they’ll break even or come close to it. When you add in the freebies from the casino, the player can come out ahead.

“Vegas is full of people that are basically just gambling for free,” Shackleford said. “I think the shooter was one of these people who was basically milking the system, getting free vacations.”

Why do the casinos have games where the players can come out ahead?

“It’s because there are so many bad players,” Shackleford said. “For every skilled player, there are probably 100 lousy players. They subsidize the skilled players.”

The stress of having so much on the line isn’t for everyone, he said.

“In any form of gambling, you need a strong stomach and you need to have a very cool head about the ups and down,” he said. “If this guy was a millionaire, it’s quite possible he was not bothered by the ups and down. He probably had steel nerves and was a difficult person to move emotionally.”
http://www.artesianews.com/1505798/vegas-shooters-gambling-draws-new-attention-to-video-poker.html

What made the author of the article so sure that the shooter was simply milking casino comps rather than being an AP?

Quote: Neutrino

Quote: gamerfreak

Here is Mike's bit from an article I found:

Michael Shackleford, who runs a gambling strategy website called The Wizard of Odds, said based on what is known of Paddock’s life, the gunman seems to have been what the casinos refer to as a “premium mass” player — one who bets in higher amounts, with a better understanding of the game than the typical player.

Premium mass players pay close attention to the odds in the game they’re playing and the payout, and they typically need access to a lot of money because they may have long dry spells where they lose exorbitant amounts.

Eventually, Shackleford said, if players stay true to a perfect strategy — one designed to maximize their performance over the long haul, such as by getting rid of potentially decent cards like low pairs to increase chances of a big-payout royal flush — their luck will turn, based on statistics, and they’ll break even or come close to it. When you add in the freebies from the casino, the player can come out ahead.

“Vegas is full of people that are basically just gambling for free,” Shackleford said. “I think the shooter was one of these people who was basically milking the system, getting free vacations.”

Why do the casinos have games where the players can come out ahead?

“It’s because there are so many bad players,” Shackleford said. “For every skilled player, there are probably 100 lousy players. They subsidize the skilled players.”

The stress of having so much on the line isn’t for everyone, he said.

“In any form of gambling, you need a strong stomach and you need to have a very cool head about the ups and down,” he said. “If this guy was a millionaire, it’s quite possible he was not bothered by the ups and down. He probably had steel nerves and was a difficult person to move emotionally.”
http://www.artesianews.com/1505798/vegas-shooters-gambling-draws-new-attention-to-video-poker.html

What made the author of the article so sure that the shooter was simply milking casino comps rather than being an AP?

Are there enough AP opportunities in high limit slots? At high levels, it seems that many of the extras that are comped to a $1.25 - $5 player are not 20x - 100x better. Therefore, not worth pursuing at the $100 level. Is risking 20x-100x more worth a bigger suite, or an extra day in the spa?

Quote: Rigondeaux

The iidea that suicides are fine and nothing to be concerned about is a little odd.

I don't think that's necessarily the right way to approach or go against it. Rather, the issue here is suicide, not guns. A different approach to fixing the problem is needed for suicides vs mass shooters vs domestic violence vs gangs shootin' each other up.

A hand gun is probably even more deadly (in regards to suicide) for someone struggling with depression and suicidal thoughts/tendencies. It's a bit harder to shoot yourself in the head with a shotgun or an AK-47 than with a hand gun (not that it can't be done, ie: Kurt Cobain)....and I think it'd be far less appealing as well. Sorta like -- would you rather take a few pills, fall asleep, and be dead in a little while.....or would you rather take a chainsaw to your neck?

So what's the solution to stopping or decreasing suicides in the USA? Are Americans overall unhappy? Is it more accepted in our culture than others? Granted, our suicide rate is 12.6/100,000 (or 0.0126%) and ranks 48'th highest in the world. It appears the center 30% are in the 8.5-12/100k range.

Per 100k, Canada and Australia are at 10.4, Netherlands 9.4, Norway 9.3, and Sweden at 12.7.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

Not RS-vetted sources, just quick google searches:

USA suicide methods:
http://lostallhope.com/suicide-statistics/us-methods-suicide

Australia suicide methods:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/EBA9606492CEFC61CA25788400127CEB?opendocument

Canada suicide methods:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-624-x/2012001/article/11696-eng.htm

The suicide rates in these countries, according to wikipedia, are 12.6, 10.4, and 10.4 respectively. In USA, suicide method of using a firearm is 51%, while Australia and Canada are hanging/suffocation 51% and 44% respectively.

Considering firearms are very difficult to get in Australia and apparently they're difficult to get in Canada or something like that too, you'd think there'd be a significant difference in the suicide rates between USA vs Australia & Canada, considering how "rampant" gun ownership is viewed in the USA.

On the other hand, it's also possible (to me, seems very unlikely) if guns were outlawed in the USA, you'd see those 51% or so of suicide by gun (about 6/100k people) drop significantly, such that we have a suicide rate in the 6-8/100k range (but mind you, that's a decrease of 0.004-0.006%, whereas if we decreased the rate by 0.0126%, there would be 0 suicides).

Granted, I just picked Canada and Australia somewhat at random and because they're similar. I haven't done a bunch of research on this subject, but I think the more you actually research something instead of just watching a stupid buzzfeed video telling you how to think, the more you'll get out of it and be able to understand it's not "It's a gun problem, period."


edit: website slow AF, wtf?

Quote: monet0412

Quote: gamerfreak

His brother said his net worth was $2 million. I've seen people go though that amount in gambling in a year or two.

I watched a famous whale bet $180,000 a hand at roulette at Caesar's Palace (Sometimes he bet s smaller $90,000). Covered 1/3 of the board in a fancy pattern. Tossed $100 in the air for tips from post-it-note stacks. (Someone later told me one of the casinos sells these...)

He could have lost $2 million in 12 bets...
-----
One weekend in November 2009, I watched a guy win $3 million from Bellagio on video poker.

Friday, I had just walked from Caesar's Palace, where someone had won a $400,000 royal earlier (possibly the same guy), and I saw a guy playing 3x$100 in the HL room, center left bank, machine on the right...but super-fast like a nickel player. ...I've never seen anyone bet $1,500 so fast, so I asked a staff member what was going on, and he said that the guy had just gotten a $1.2 million dealt royal. He ended up hitting 26 pages of jackpots (maybe 60-80 jackpots on each written page) in 2 hrs and won $2 million.

Saturday, he didn't play.

Sunday, staff said he played 5 more sessions and won $200K each, for a total of $3 million.

Monday, techs downgraded the VP game he played by 1%.

Two years later, staff said they still hadn't seen him return.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-las-vegas-shooting-live-updates-gunman-s-brother-if-a-lot-of-these-1507168374-htmlstory.html

"We’re wealthy people," Eric Paddock said. "$100,000 isn’t that much money.... He gambled that much through a machine in hours.... He’s got the highest level of membership card at a lot of these [casino] hotels. If a lot of these hotels say they don’t know Steve, they’re lying.”

Paddock remembered his brother as a man who used his money to take care of his family financially. "He helped make me and my family wealthy. I mean, he’s the reason I was able to retire three years ago when I got really burned out doing the job I did," Eric Paddock said.

But Steve is a — was a — highly intelligent, highly successful person. He could have done anything he wanted to do. And he did. He made himself wealthy. He made us wealthy. He was a very successful person. He gambled for 20-plus years, successfully. It’s like a job to him. He did it mathematically.”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/stephen-paddock-and-the-world-of-video-poker

On Wednesday night, I spoke to Anthony Curtis, a former professional gambler who is now the owner and publisher of Las Vegas Advisor, a Web site covering the casino business.

(On Thursday evening, after this piece was published, Curtis e-mailed to say that he’d just discovered Paddock’s name in the Las Vegas Advisor database. “He was buying how-to-play products from us,” he explained—all of them related to video poker.)

Curtis said that, unlike traditional slot machines, video-poker machines can be outsmarted. The video-poker machines at Mandalay Bay, according to Curtis, paid out $99.17 for every hundred dollars played. “Video poker is well known for attracting people who have compulsive gambling problems,” he told me. “It’s almost the perfect gambling game. But it also has the property of being able to be beaten. So it attracts a lot of very intelligent people.

Curtis told me that he’d been in touch with a number of such players in Las Vegas who “can derive advantages over the casino of half of one per cent, sometimes higher.” He said that around a dozen of these players, whom he declined to name, had “ended up running in the same circles as Paddock,” and recalled observing him over the past few months.

Curtis’s sources told him that Paddock was not a so-called advantage player, someone who can beat the video-poker game. “They call themselves A.P.s,” Curtis said, “and just about everyone I talked to said, ‘No, he wasn’t A.P. level.’

They discounted him as just a high roller, a guy who might have read a book or two, or something like that.” But Curtis heard that Paddock was what’s referred to as “a low seven,” or someone who has a verified low-seven-figure bank account, which would have afforded him a six-figure line of credit at casinos.

Curtis went on, “People who are semi-sharp, as we say in Vegas, they know they’re better off playing video poker than slots. This guy was smart enough to know that. He was not on top of the world of play, but he was a gambler that kind of knew how to play the angles a little bit.”

--> P.S. Other articles said Stephen had six-figure credit lines & top players cards at multiple casinos

http://beta.latimes.com/nation/la-na-las-vegas-shooting-20171005-story.html
After paying for his girlfriend's trip to visit family in the Philippines, Paddock appears to have been in downtown Las Vegas from Sept. 14 to 28, according to records reviewed by representatives of the El Cortez Hotel and Casino, who spoke to the Times on condition of anonymity.

The representatives said Paddock did not spend the night there or make a reservation. But he was seen in the El Cortez on Sept. 16, and he obtained a player's card and played slots and blackjack on Sept. 17th, buying in on the latter with $40. Representatives said Paddock won about $300.

"He only played one time," one of the representatives said. "Enough to get a meal."

The next week, Paddock returned to El Cortez on Sept. 21 and 24. At some point he ate two meals with his winnings. He cashed out his ticket on the 24th, his sole use of the casino's ATM machines.

The timeline overlaps with the three-day outdoor Life is Beautiful concert, which ran from the Sept. 22nd to the 24th, which featured similarly high-profile acts as Lollapalooza.

El Cortez representatives disputed reports that Paddock was kicked out of the property or that the hotel was sold out around the time of Life is Beautiful. Casino representatives said he was not on the radar of management because he did not win or lose a substantial sum.

After Paddock was identified, a compliance officer for El Cortez entered his name into their system and determined he had a brief, limited interaction there, representatives said. The hotel leaders then contacted police to share their findings.

"We never knew he was here until after this murder," one of the representatives said.

http://beta.latimes.com/nation/la-na-las-vegas-shooting-20171005-story.html
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-las-vegas-gunman-lollapalooza-20171005-story.html

Las Vegas gunman researched outdoor concerts in other large cities in the U.S.

In the first week of August, Paddock reserved rooms at an upscale hotel overlooking Chicago’s Grant Park during Lollapalooza, one of the nation’s largest outdoor music festivals, a law enforcement source said.

The event was headlined by major acts including Chance the Rapper, the Killers and Muse, and attendees included Sasha and Malia Obama, the daughters of President Obama. It would have been a target similar to the one in Las Vegas — huge crowds packed into an outdoor space beneath tall buildings — but with far more people.

Paddock was ultimately a no-show for his reservations in Chicago. "We can confirm that there was no guest under that name who stayed at our hotel in August during the Lollapalooza music festival," said Blackstone hotel spokeswoman Emmy Carragher.

Paddock also booked an Airbnb in a condo building overlooking the Life Is Beautiful music festival in Las Vegas in late September, leading investigators to gather video footage from the building to learn more.

"Was he doing pre-surveillance? We don't know yet," Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo said Wednesday.

During Sunday's attack on the Las Vegas festival, Paddock apparently also shot at a pair of jet-fuel storage tanks at McCarran International Airport, which sits next to both the concert fairgrounds and the Mandalay Bay hotel.

Two rifle rounds struck a 1.8 million-gallon tank on the western edge of the airport. One round penetrated the tank, which was partially filled at the time, and the other round got stuck in the tank's outer steel shell, airport officials said.

Neither of the shots appeared to have started a fire. "Jet fuel is treated kerosene and is not classified as a flammable liquid, but as a combustible liquid," Clark County Dept. of Aviation spokesman Chris Jones said in an email. "Contrary to speculation, there is almost zero likelihood gunfire damage could trigger a fire or explosion at a commercial fuel storage facility."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/us/las-vegas-shooting.html

The National Rifle Association on Thursday endorsed tighter restrictions on devices that allow a rifle to fire bullets as fast as a machine gun — a rare, if small, step for a group that for years has vehemently opposed any new gun controls.

A note the gunman left on a table inside his suite at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino had numbers written on it, Sheriff Joseph Lombardo of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department said in an interview on Thursday. He said the authorities were trying to determine what the numbers meant, but the sheriff said the document was not a suicide note.

• Mr. Paddock may have scouted other locations before targeting Las Vegas, including Fenway Park in Boston, the Lollapalooza show in Chicago and the Life Is Beautiful music festival in Las Vegas.

Quote: beachbumbabs

You only need one such rifle, not 40 or so.

Why do you have more than one pair of shoes? Why does Jay Leno need so many cars?

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But, why should someone own 12, 30, 40 of those? You can only shoot one rifle at a time.

Collector? Why so many religions? Isn't one enough? Why do people live in Hurricane zones when they know darn well another one is coming?

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Here's another interesting stat. In the US, deaths per day by gun are 93. About 1/3 homicides, 2/3 suicides, with tiny ~1% each for accidents, killed by officers, and undetermined circumstance.

Back the suicides out of the equation and gang related murders, America is a pretty safe place, and safer because anyone can defend themselves.

The stats that don't get published is how many lives are saved and muggings prevented because of personal firearms . I recall the mall shooting in Oregon and the theater shooting in Col. were stopped because of Personal firearms. IIRC

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By contrast, the death by day (killed in combat)rates for major US wars for the duration of each:


Vietnam 8.96
Afghanistan + Iraq 1.60

Is that statistic how many we lost or how many we killed? Over one million Iraqi's are said to have died by several sources, including Madelline saying starving 500k kids was worth it.

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Doing nothing is not an option.

You know full well most of those deaths are by pistol. And you also know who does the majority of shooting and dying, but yet your solution is to take away rifles. psshaw

Both Face's argument and WaPo's article to me have changed my position somewhat. There is a large problem with guns and I do believe that really, it lies in making people more safe with guns, providing better access to mental health services, protecting children from guns at home, and changing attitudes overall.

The NRA and polarization of the country takes away reason from some and removes common sense. Sensationalization of news makes things seem more dangerous than they are and cause gun-owners to take more risks than they should. For example, in homes with children, you really should keep your gun hidden, ammo removed, and preferably locked up. The odds of home invasion or having to defend yourself is extremely low.

I still believe that all guns should be taken away from those with mental health problems and the SAFE law in New York is an okay start to that path. The argument that people would find another way to kill themselves if guns were not available is bull.

But we are way off-topic.

Media is focusing on the guy's gambling career. For me, 99.17% / 99.11% is not really AP. The best MGM would probably do is give him the .2% on the VP play for having the Noir level, give him all the free RFB that he wanted (including the requested room at MB, free, of course, for Noir), and some free play that would represent some level of play worth I would bet about 1/3rd of 1%, but nothing to push him over 100% on a cash basis.

And frankly, if he did indeed get rich off gambling by playing some 100%+ games in Reno, good for him. It seems like he had a career in accounting, got speculative in Real Estate, got lucky with timing of his sales, made money through landlording and more property sales, and spent his free time becoming a VP non-ploppy.

Over time, who knows what happened? Bitterness? Bad health news? Depression? Psychosis? Psychopathic behavior? Over time one may find out but his gambling habits at best are a clue to his personality.

And the Wizard makes his contribution up here in the Great White North:

Vegas gunman's gambling draws new attention to video poker

Quote: CBC and Mike

Michael Shackleford, who runs a gambling strategy website called The Wizard of Odds, said based on what is known of Paddock's life, the gunman seems to have been what the casinos refer to as a "premium mass" player — one who bets in higher amounts, with a better understanding of the game than the typical player.

Premium mass players pay close attention to the odds in the game they're playing and the payout, and they typically need access to a lot of money because they may have long dry spells where they lose exorbitant amounts.

Eventually, Shackleford said, if players stay true to a perfect strategy — one designed to maximize their performance over the long haul, such as by getting rid of potentially decent cards like low pairs to increase chances of a big-payout royal flush — their luck will turn, based on statistics, and they'll break even or come close to it. When you add in the freebies from the casino, the player can come out ahead.

"Vegas is full of people that are basically just gambling for free," Shackleford said. "I think the shooter was one of these people who was basically milking the system, getting free vacations."

Why do the casinos have games where the players can come out ahead?

"It's because there are so many bad players," Shackleford said. "For every skilled player, there are probably 100 lousy players. They subsidize the skilled players."

The stress of having so much on the line isn't for everyone, he said.

"In any form of gambling, you need a strong stomach and you need to have a very cool head about the ups and down," he said. "If this guy was a millionaire, it's quite possible he was not bothered by the ups and down. He probably had steel nerves and was a difficult person to move emotionally."

Good key contribution, Wizard.

But once again, the only thing his gambling habits might reveal is a sense of desparation. For example, if he registered tons of losses and his home was mortgaged and he amassed debt, a narrative will build of unhappiness with life because of financial stress.

Quote: boymimbo

It will be interesting to find out what the girlfriend really knows.
.

You won't find out anything from her. She's Filipino as I warned before. She doesn't know what she knows and will only confuse the authorities. When Resorts World in Manila was hit by a lone gunman the only security guard with a weapon shot herself. Need we say much more?

IMHO the gambling and comped suite combined with time spent with a Filipino explains why this person went mad. It doesn't excuse his conduct, just explains it to us who think we are living "normal" lives.

The fact that he was scoping out other locations across the U.S. tells me that his gambling had nothing to do with any of this.

Nice job not reading what I said, petro and Skeptic. I didn't advocate removing all rifles.

Collectors don't need every item in their collection to be on instafire. Keep them trigger locked or barrel locked, except your working guns (home defense, hunting). Then in a gun safe or display. 2 step process to get them active.

Coyotes aren't wearing armor. But jacketed slugs go right thru. Walls. Car doors. Kids What exactly are you trying to kill with them?

It should hurt to squeeze a trigger more than a half dozen times.Who outside the movies ever needs to do that? No bump stock. No 30+ mags. Bad enough people tape 2 mags back to back.

Etc.

No, the public doesn't get to own RPGs, nukes, etc. There's a line. Currently it's too liberal. So bring it down to a point that can be managed by responsible people.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

The fact that he was scoping out other locations across the U.S. tells me that his gambling had nothing to do with any of this.

Please elaborate on your opinion above. IMHO he went mad. I don't think it was an attack on Las Vegas and gambling. Thanks for any context you can provide.

Concerning the note Paddock left.

Quote:

. Sheriff Lombardo said that it contained numbers that were being analyzed for their relevance, and that it was not a manifesto or suicide note.

Well now, considering Paddock's background, this site's members might see some relevance.

To those who ridiculed me and Bob Massi for suggesting/implying the suite being comped or not(booked like regular folks and paid for) I'm reminded that there was at least one story stating he had checked in using the "girlfriend"s player card. This makes no sense to us. Since when can someone check into a hotel using another person's players card/points? without that person being present? It adds to the story is all, and we need answers to such "trivial" questions to get the entire picture. Thanks.

Advantage Player status versus paying for the room out of pocket makes no difference.

Quote: NokTang

To those who ridiculed me and Bob Massi for suggesting/implying the suite being comped or not(booked like regular folks and paid for) I'm reminded that there was at least one story stating he had checked in using the "girlfriend"s player card. This makes no sense to us. Since when can someone check into a hotel using another person's players card/points? without that person being present? It adds to the story is all, and we need answers to such "trivial" questions to get the entire picture. Thanks.

Not a casino hotel, but in the hotels I worked at this happened at least once per day. The person who books the room gives the name of the person who will be checking in. I’d imagine casino hotels might care even less than we did given that the room free.

Quote: Mission146

Not a casino hotel, but in the hotels I worked at this happened at least once per day. The person who books the room gives the name of the person who will be checking in. I’d imagine casino hotels might care even less than we did given that the room free.

Good point, however, the "girlfriend" was in the Philippines, so we have read anyhow. I find these details interesting but perhaps they are a bore to others. It is possible since he is also a player at said hotel and perhaps a repeat guest etc. things weren't as strict as they might be otherwise....

Quote: FleaStiff

Advantage Player status versus paying for the room out of pocket makes no difference.

Instead of quoting Secretary Clinton "what difference does it make now?"...we might dissect exactly how he booked and checked in to the hotel....These things answer a lot of the "state of mind" questions.

Quote: NokTang

Good point, however, the "girlfriend" was in the Philippines, so we have read anyhow. I find these details interesting but perhaps they are a bore to others. It is possible since he is also a player at said hotel and perhaps a repeat guest etc. things weren't as strict as they might be otherwise....

I’m just speaking from hotel experience. If a room is booked in someone else’s name and they call and say, “X will be checking in,” then we make a note and are looking for X.

If we don’t see the primary guest from that point forward, we wouldn’t really consider that unusual. If she wanted the dude to be able to get the keys, I imagine she would not have told them she’s not even in the country.

And, as you point out, he was definitely a repeat guest and they probably know those two stay together. Again, normal operating procedure for just about any hotel if you have a regular enough pair of guests.

The woman who cut his hair the last 3 times says he always smelled of alcohol.

Quote: boymimbo

The argument that people would find another way to kill themselves if guns were not available is bull.

How's that? Canada and Australia have restrictive gun laws yet their suicide rate is about 10.5 compared to our (USA)'s 12.5, per 100,000. USA's "priority" method of suicide is by a fire arm, around 50%, while the other two's "preferred" method is by hanging/suffocation, at like 45% and 50%.

The solution shouldn't be reactive and ban guns because they somehow cause suicide. If that's done, next we'll be banning rope so people can't hang themselves. After that, we'll be banning bleach, strong medications, etc. so people can't poison themselves.

The solution should be proactive. The best way to prevent someone from committing suicide because they're depressed.....is for that person not to be depressed. The best way to stop a psycho from shooting up a school is to not have any psychos. Granted, this isn't a super easy problem to solve.

I'm not a psychologist, but I'd think teaching kids at a young age how to deal with real world problems would at minimum be a great starting point. I don't know how that'd be done, other than perhaps having a psychologist or councelor at a school where the kids can have an open & personal conversation, where they can freely talk about their problems.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Collectors don't need every item in their collection to be on instafire. Keep them trigger locked or barrel locked, except your working guns (home defense, hunting). Then in a gun safe or display. 2 step process to get them active.

Will there be quarterly or annual in home inspections by ATF to ensure collector compliance?

Quote: NokTang

To those who ridiculed me and Bob Massi for suggesting/implying the suite being comped or not(booked like regular folks and paid for) I'm reminded that there was at least one story stating he had checked in using the "girlfriend"s player card. This makes no sense to us. Since when can someone check into a hotel using another person's players card/points? without that person being present? It adds to the story is all, and we need answers to such "trivial" questions to get the entire picture. Thanks.

I've booked rooms at both a casino hotel as well as regular hotels or motels (no casino attached) and put someone else's name on it. That person shows up, I'm not present, he checks in, all good. Never had a problem.