DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 10745
July 28th, 2017 at 8:03:56 AM permalink
Most of the games in MyVegas are mere random luck.

In Luxor game​, there's a bonus round that has a math strategy element that I'm trying to calculate.

It's called a Horus Wheel. (Horus is an Egyptian god, significant to the Luxor theme, but irrelevant to the game.)

It's a wheel of fortune type wheel. 10 segments with various prize values. After the first spin, three segments are replaced with "collect half" symbols.

After each spin, you're given a choice of taking the winnings, or risking half.

So my question is, what's the correct stop point?

Is it when the value of the largest segment is less than the amount risked? When the average of the 7 win segments is less than the amount risked?

Do you factor in the 70% chance of improving? Or conversely the 30% chance of getting a "collect half" section?

This is the type of math that makes my head hurt.

As you can see in the screen shot below, I just risked 205K (half od 410K) to hit the 80K and get a new total of 490K. Should I have stopped at 410K? Should I risk 245K or stop now?

For the record, my stop point was when the total is at least 1.5 times the biggest section, so I stopped. But was that the right point to stop?

Thanks.

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/  Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
• Posts: 1043
July 28th, 2017 at 8:51:41 AM permalink
If the sectors are weighted equally, you have a 10% chance of landing on any one of them.

Calculating clockwise from the top, your average total after the next spin would be 0.1(490 + 80) + 0.1(490 + 60) + 0.1(490 + 300) + 0.1(490 + 80) + 0.1(490 + 60) + 0.1(490 + 50) + 0.1(490 + 100) + 0.1( 490/2 ) + 0.1 ( 490/2 ) + 0.1 ( 490/2 ) . This EV is \$489.5K. Since, your present total, 490K, is greater than \$489.5K, you stopped at a good time.

A formula for this case is stop when your total is greater than 0.1 x (Total of prize sectors) / ( 1 - 0.7 - 0.3/2 ). That is, stop if: your present total > ( Total of prize sectors ) / 1.5
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
• Posts: 9854
July 28th, 2017 at 9:30:09 AM permalink
DJ, I don't think you will ever have enough info to do this. 2 main things that you don't know.

1. Are the spaces weighted equally

and more importantly.

2. Is this completely random or is it basically assigned once you get into the game.=
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DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 10745
July 28th, 2017 at 11:37:54 AM permalink
Chester -
Thanks. Yeah, I might have gotten that after spending a lot of time on it.

GWAE-
On the surface, those are legitimate concerns, but based upon my own experience (many rewards despite never spending a cent), and the podcast interviews with the creator, I trust that their software is fair.

I.E. Yeah, I think the wheel is weighted equally, and the bonus is not predetermined.

While there are some bonus games in the MyVegas app that makes me think the reward is predetermined, my experience is that the ones what seem like there is an element of chance and/or skill really do perform based on that chance or skill.

And this is the only one I've seen so far where the skill includes a math element.

And remember, these are bonus rounds. If they wanted to skew things to not reward a lot of points, they could have (and maybe did) tweak the main game to give the bonus rounds less often. But once in the bonus, fairness prevails. After all, the main game is a standard slot design, with who-knows what edge.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/  Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁