Therefore, the posters who say you should "quit while you're ahead" are missing the point. The only way that phrase would have meaning is if you inserted the word "forever" after "quit".
So you are a proponent of money management, and thus we are in agreement.
However, the concept of betting bigger with the winners, and minimum betting with the losers is not possible. I agree with the concept, but you have no way of knowing ahead of time which one is going to be the good roll. Take my last day at Paris. Only one point made in one trip around a full table. Most shooters lasted about 4 rolls. Pretty much a definition of a cold table. I usually have decent rolls, and my last 2 rolls both were PSO, ( I should say POS). Dice go to other end of table and shooter makes 6 points, 5 on the fire bet. Next shooter out in 5 rolls. Next shooter makes 6 points, 4 to the fire bet. Both of these guys had done zippo in their previous 2 rolls. I should have made a killing, but since I was low in bankroll I only made a little instead of a lot. Missing out on the $3k I should have made on those 2 hot rolls meant I ended Paris with a loss. That is the one thing I have noticed on my trips. EVERY trip I have been on, there has always been at least a couple of great rolls. The trips I made money on, I was playing heavy at the time of the roll, usually because I had just arrived, or because I was on house money. The trips I have lost money on have happened because the big roll came along, and I was betting light and only made $200, instead of the $1500 I should have made.
I guess you are saying this is exactly what your system is good for. You only make a minimum bet, until the shooter has shown they can make a point, and then you start betting more. But how many times does a shooter make 1 point, but then goes PSO on the 2nd point? The concept of a hot shooter is not based in fact. Whether this is my first roll, or the 10th roll I have made, the odds are still the exact same, and my chance of throwing any number is the exact same now or 100 rolls from now. Therefore, any betting system that relies on past history is a flawed system.
Now, about that $1000 that I won. First, it was $1000 because after I won the first roll and was up $100 I didn't cut my bet in half and try to preserve a $50 win. I stepped on the gas and doubled my bet. Eureka, shooter makes point 2 and now I am up $300. Now I'm not a fool, so I don't double up again, but I do add a few more place bets, and eureka, shooter makes some place numbers and my point again. Now I'm up $500. Should I go into money management mode now? If I do, I don't get to the $1000 mark. All I am trying to point out here is there is no way to predict when I should slow down. I can only realize when I should have done it, after the fact.
Would you agree that the amount you can reasonably expect to win is predicated on the size of your buy-in? In other words, if you buy-in for $200, can you expect to win $1000? In my opinion, the answer is no. If you want a $1000 win, I feel you need to buy in with at least $1000. Doubling your money is a good deal. If you try and go beyond that, you risk giving back what you are ahead. Is that too aggressive? Should I be aiming to only win 50% of my buy-in?
Do you have a formula you use for your expected win amount?
And if a person does not have a 'formula', they cant/dont win? ROFL Ken
Ken, I haven't taken part in any of your repartee, but my belief is, if that's what gives you pleasure while playing, then that's what you should do.
This is a math-intensive forum, but the way I've always thought is that Wizard of Odds is the math site, Wizard of Vegas is the gambling site. Math is important here. It should be. It HAS TO BE. You can't understand gambling without it. But for me, WoV is about the experience of wagering, in its full sensory, emotional, probability based entirety. You should be able to discuss it as a thing of itself, comprised of everything that makes it what it is. Not just the math, but the whole thing. ALL of it is important.
Of course I practice bankroll management. Needing to know how to do all this stuff is what brought me here, first to WoO and then, when it was hatched, here. The Ten Commandments of Gambling opened my eyes; they should be posted here, as a refresher:
Quote: Wizard of Odds
1: Thou shalt not cheat.
2: Thou shalt honor thy gambling debts.
3: Thou shalt expect to lose.
4: Thou shalt trust the odds, not hunches.
5: Thou shalt not overbet thy bankroll.
6: Thou shalt not believe in betting systems.
7: Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.
8: Thou shalt covet good rules.
9: Thou shalt not make side bets.
10: Thou shalt have good gambling etiquette.
Notice a few of them germane to the subject at hand:
3: Thou shalt expect to lose. Thank you. This saved me the frustration of wondering why... I usually lost.
4: Thou shalt trust the odds, not hunches. Not a problem! I believe that the faces of the cards do not exist until they are revealed. Since there are rules governing the relationship between wager and expected return, I should follow those, instead of trying to guess. That makes it easy.
5: Thou shalt not overbet they bankroll. Ahhhh. Money management. I was missing this one, way back then. Not that I was tossing blacks all over, but I was not thinking clearly about what I wanted from what I was doing. If I was going to drive three hours to Atlantic City with $300, it was not a good idea to start by dropping a hundo in the dollar Wheel of Fortune machine! Now I take enough to have fun, and I divide it into sessions, usually $500/session. If I tap out, I walk, until the next session. So, "Doing what I feel like doing" includes, in my case, feeling like making plans to keep from blowing everything up in an hour. I do NOT take markers, or loans. I hit the ATM to extend a session once; I felt like a loser, I've never done it since.
8: Thou shalt covet good rules. This makes sense, too. Why play a 00 wheel when you can play a 0 wheel? Why play 6-5 bj when you can play a 3-2 game? The game's the same, the thrill's the same; play the one that makes it last longer, because, well, see rule #3. But what if the casino with slightly worse rules is a lot closer? REMEMBER: LIFE IS A CLOSED SYSTEM. If the cost of time and travel is more than the difference in the odds, either play close to home or play a different game. Mt Airy pays 6-4 on Pairs+ at 3 Card; it is also an hour away, not a big deal at 3 in the afternoon, but absolutely a big deal at 12:30AM.
So, although I don't sweat a lot of the numbers, you can see I'm still very much a follower of The Wizard. I don't need to parse the little stuff; I need to have fun my own way, in my own head. So I follow The Ten Commandments of Gambling. I play square, I pay up without complaining, I play the games I enjoy under the best rules I can find, I trust the odds by not playing hunches, and above all, I am courteous to fellow gamblers and casino employees. Gambling is just part of life. It isn't life all by itself.
Mrs and I followed the commandments for our next few trips, and our money lasted longer and our trips were much more enjoyable; we still lost, but we understood what we were doing, and we didn't lose as much. We got player's cards and started working the comps, and after we figured the couple nights free lodging (The Trop in AC) and meals, we realized that we were getting some cheap getaways and getting some nice playing time, with of course the chance to go home winners. And sometimes that happened. And eventually I sent an email to Mr Shackleford, thanking him for putting all that information on the internet where I could find it. And in due time, he emailed me back that I was welcome. And there you have it.
But, yeah; if it's in your hand, regardless of where you are, it's your money. And yeah; as long as you are in the casino, it's their money. Think of it however you want to. Commandment #3 trumps it all.
The game of craps never stops, and that goes for any casino game, they are open 24-7 you just slide in and out of the game. Hard concept for most players to grasp!
Your bank roll is what enables you to stay at the tables. A $10,000 buy in is the same as a $100 buy in if you broke in down in $500 dollars units.
If you were betting red you would have 20 units to bet with, the same thing goes for the $500 dollar chips. You are always up or down in units that you are betting.
There is no system that works all the time when playing craps, and no magic bullet that you can go out and buy, so save your money!
Never set what some would call a win limit,I have told players before to set a win limit, and was totally missed understood about the win limit. A win limit is something the is constantly changing, as you add profit to both your bank roll and your profit!
If no one knew me at the casino, my profit limit would be when they shut down the table, and told me that they were opening a different table. Then itís time to say color me up please, and thank you very much, but my wife is waiting on me! The time I want to spend in any casino is only two hours at the most, but then I get to do this everyday!
When you are playing, and winning there are a few things that will help you to stay ahead
Add units to your profit, and at the same time to your shooting or playing bank roll. Once you bets have been paid off, press you bets at lease one unit with every hit, pulling profit with every hit. Never lock your self into a set betting plan, or this can happen to you. One of the guys called me today to tell me that he had a great day; the guy that was shooting had a 67 roll. This was at a local casino, both guys are retired.
The shooter only made $30 off his roll, as he always plays the same way, he will take one or two pays and come down on all his bets
You would be surprised how many players will have the roll of their life and not make any money on it. His way of looking at it was he won money for today. The guy that called me only made $400 off the roll, and the first thing he told me was you would have made thousands of that roll.
Betting the game and money management is more important, then youíre shooting skills.
Anybody can work on both without going to the casinos, with just two dice and some chips or a piece of paper and pen! Start with 20 units bet 2, 4, or 6 units, roll the dice, did you hit any number you bet on, then pay your self off, and keep doing that till you seven out!
Keep a running count of your chips from the start of the week to the end of the week and keep adjusting you betting till you get it right! Talk about random rolling try this on a table top just dropping the dice, just shake and drop!
You will see table trends just by doing that, so you can sharpen both money management and your betting! Work on not giving any profit back, and remember there is no formula that will work all the time. As I always told the kids life is about change, learn to deal with it!
Now, about that $1000 that I won. First, it was $1000 because after I won the first roll and was up $100 I didn't cut my bet in half and try to preserve a $50 win. I stepped on the gas and doubled my bet. Eureka, shooter makes point 2
I am not telling you to cut back your bets, just get them paid for and keep taking money off the table as you are playing, when you start to lose and you hit below a certain level of you profit itís time to leave, your next session is always waiting for you to step back up to the table!
Thanks for the in depth explanation. What you just described is different than the picture I had painted from your previous posts. I agree whole heartedly with your post above on taking some profit while incrementally pressing up your bets at the same time.
For me, it all comes down to my initial start at the table. If I start out positive, I generally leave with a profit.
I was envious of a player next to me at Aria on Sat afternoon. He is $110 across player, but he bought in for $300, so he had enough for 2, maybe 3 shooters. It was obvious he was going to win with one of these first shooters, or he was walking. (He walked smack into a good roll and ended plus $1500 after 30 min or so of play). I wonder how often he loses the $300 playing that way?