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24 votes (57.14%)
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gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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August 8th, 2016 at 2:13:43 PM permalink
Are 2/3 real promos you've seen? I can't imagine...
Romes
Romes
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August 8th, 2016 at 2:39:55 PM permalink
Not real promo's, just made them up to make an interesting situation. Since Joeman posted his thoughts, I'll also post mine in hiding on page 2...


1) 100 bet, avg 300 action, 40 hands per hour... 40*300 = 12,000 action, 27% edge = 3,240/hour.

2) 1000 hands at $5 per hand = $5,000 per hour in action, resulting in $2,500/hour. Recall the machine is 100% pay back, so running the FP through should net you 100%, theoretically. Remember though, that even 100% machines have variance!

3) 1000 per spin, 30 spins per hour...EV = (.48)*(1000) + ((.52)(-500) / 2) = 480 - (520 / 2) = 480 - 260 = $220/spin... 30 spins per hour = $6,600/hour. And yes, there are betting patterns where you can essentially make this no variance.

**Edit: I guess I should have said even money bets... In my mind that's what I was looking at FYI.

All 3 are great plays no doubt, but the roulette half loss back seems to be the best play as given =). It would appear that VP is actually the WORST of the 3 though... Sorry Axel.
Last edited by: Romes on Aug 8, 2016
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Doc
Doc
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August 8th, 2016 at 2:52:38 PM permalink
I'm not an AP either, but I agree with Joeman's choice of Roulette, even though I haven't checked his reasoning.

(1) Since the question was "Which would you play?", I would skip the cards because I know nothing about the game.

(2) If I am reading correctly, your maximum VP action is $1 per spin or $1,000 per hour. You expect to break even on the gaming but earn $500 in free play each hour. That's worth $500, but it takes more time to play off and convert to cash.

(3) Assuming single-zero Roulette and interpreting the limit as $1,000 total for all bets on a spin, I say bet "x" on each number (37x wagered.) After one roll, you will have 36x for the number that hit plus 18x rebated for the 36 numbers that lost: total of 54x or a net win of 17x per spin. After an hour of that, you will be up 30*17x = 510x. The maximum x is $1,000/37 = $27 and change. Give up some of the advantage and forget the change. Just net gain 510*$27 = $13,570 per hour with no variance at all. Great way to spend the evening!
Doc
Doc
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August 8th, 2016 at 3:01:22 PM permalink
Now that I've read the other answers, I ask: So why the big discrepancy in the results for option 3?


Edit: I think I just offered a much better strategy of play.

;-)

With my approach on a double-zero wheel, you should win $12,870 per hour, betting $26 on each number.
Last edited by: Doc on Aug 8, 2016
GWAE
GWAE
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August 8th, 2016 at 3:17:30 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

And potentially sacrifice a lot of EV? Did you work that out or take a mental stab by just viewing the problem?



I did no math but here are my thoughts prior to reading the answers.

1. Hole carding still requires you to get good cards and winning hands. Since this is a one time promotion you could still lose money. If I have other oprions I am easily taking them.

2. I like playing VP. With a 50% play rebate you are playing a game that can not lose. I also like vp so that would be fun. With this option you are playing with variance but the variance would be fun variance. It would be either make a whole lot or make an ass ton a lot if you over royal.

3. I am pretty sure this would be your best ev but it would be boring as hell. I could probably come up with betting patterns that would guarantee x amount of win but that would be set in stone basically. I would prefer VP that still has variance but still guarantees a huge win.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
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August 8th, 2016 at 3:18:41 PM permalink
OOps pulled an axel
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 8th, 2016 at 3:21:10 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

So I recently had a really long drive, to say the least. On this drive during the middle of the night I had a teammate up with me discussing random things while I was driving. I came up with a question on the spot to ask/quiz my teammate for fun, but I thought it would make a really good question for anyone/everyone in the forums to answer!

So you don't have to be an AP to answer this, you can try on your own to do it anyways, etc. I would think it interesting to those who consider themselves full AP's though, as there's a mix of a few different types of plays in here =).

RULES: This is the honor system, but it will be most fun if you do this the same way we did... No computers, no SIMS, just some quick napkin math. I let my teammates think about it, talk about it, but they answered in about 5 minutes with nothing more than some quick out loud discussion. So... Talk it out, maybe grab a paper and pencil, but nothing past that.

QUESTION
You just walked in to a new casino to check it out. You found a few GREAT opportunities to play... The trouble is they're only available for the rest of the night (timeline doesn't matter just not a long term thing). There is no heat and no chance of you getting any. You need to figure out which play is the most profitable for you! The clock is ticking. After all, they say time is money! Which play below has the highest hourly EV / What would you play for the night?

1) 3rd street Mississippi Hole Card game. Table limits are $10-$100. So we're on the same page here, let's say you get a good game at 40 hands per hour.

2) Video Poker promotion. For every hour of play, at the end of that hour you'll receive back 50% of your total action for the hour in FP! The best machine in the house is a 100% payback machine, and the highest denomination in the house is $1. So we're on the same page here, let's say you can play fast, at 1000 hands per hour.

3) Roulette Half Loss promotion. When playing roulette, every time you lose, you only lose half of the amount you wagered. The table limits are $10-$1000. So we're on the same page here, let's say you get 30 spins per hour.

I have the answers for all 3 of these, but don't want to put them in a spoiler because sometimes even myself when I see that I'm lazy and just click to confirm my initial gut. If you're not an AP, you should hopefully be able to think about it for a few minutes and maybe at least decide which the worst is. If you claim to be an AP, you should be able to solve this in only a few minutes with nothing other than some thought.

IF others want to "show their work" please do so in spoiler tabs and again I'm going to encourage others to take a stab at it before viewing!

I wouldn't ask such questions in the first place on forums espesilly ones that are actually possible. The reason why is because there's people who wouldn't have a clue exactly know and what to play. They might end up playing something worth significantly less or not at all because they didn't understand the actual value therefor it might last longer. Also other casinos might want to run the same type of promo but then they read about how valuable it is and exactly what to look for when AP show up or they might exclude certain games. Didn't you learn this from the Revel? Plaza and many other plays?

I see no reason to discuss such things just to educate the casinos.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
RS
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August 8th, 2016 at 4:43:11 PM permalink
Roulette is worth at least $13,026 per hour.
SAMIAM
SAMIAM
Joined: Aug 4, 2016
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August 8th, 2016 at 4:44:21 PM permalink
Insufficient information. What are the bust sizes and personalities of the Missisippi and Roulette dealers ?
Romes
Romes
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August 8th, 2016 at 6:10:40 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

...I see no reason to discuss such things just to educate the casinos.

I even mentioned it to you last weekend. It was a rando question and the only one real plausible play in all of them (the other 2 would never happen) is decently written about (at least any math you'd need to answer the question).

lol then in the other HC - interesting read thread you talked about how to do it, practice, etc.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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