AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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June 24th, 2016 at 8:33:17 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Say you set your figures on something like it hitting by 9750. Doesn't it just take 1 time going to the top to wipe out all winnings plus some?
I don't spend a lot of time on must hits but when I do I always calculate it based on going to the top. Last thing I want to do is lose 2k going after 500

If you calculate it on going to the top you won't get many plays. People like BTLWI will jump on it and snap up all the value before you ever have a chance.

I'm not sure how many they find or how well they are doing overall, but It sounds as if they know what they are doing and have been making strong plays.

Good Job keep it up.

My question is.... Once the casinos and game makers realize just how strong they can be for advantage players and just how they are targeting them, giving them a play by play, will they adjust them or find a way to keep the money in the ploppies pockets? I say... out of sight out of mind. Not to mention you may create competition if the right person sees this and a lightbulb goes off.

This is why we dont have good VP progressives any more.

If I ran a casino I would pull them out or adjust them in order to keep that money in the pockets of my ploppies. Anyone who hit something like this in my casino would automatically get some RFB enticing them to stay and play longer or on their next trip (point or no points) if they did not show good play I would adjust the comps accordingly.

I can only imagine the guy who was there for hours isn't to happy and may avoid playing something like this next time, and now he can't spend that 10k in the casino on some other -EV Game.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
BTLWI
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
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June 24th, 2016 at 8:34:56 PM permalink
In reply to my buddy just gambling on a $181 -

Yes, that's why I declined. And then he hit a $1000 line hit 2 minutes later, but that wouldn't have happened if I was in because it would have been my turn to spin by then.

I go completely by what is expected to happen. If we did $181 machines 2000 times in a row our expectation is to be completely broke regardless of the occasional lucky $2050 win. Once I put it in those terms, he seemed to get why gambling early on machines is stupid.

But he's up a stupid amount on the 4 I've declined because of huge wins like above or they go off way before expected in like 10-20 spins....kind of laughable.
BTLWI
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
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June 24th, 2016 at 9:34:31 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I can only imagine the guy who was there for hours isn't to happy and may avoid playing something like this next time, and now he can't spend that 10k in the casino on some other -EV Game.



That guy hit a $.25 denom $4500 ($4000-5000) on Tuesday. He's just a well off (can tell by his clothes) gambler. These $1 ones go off early all the time too. The people who play them a lot hit them at $9100, $9250, etc...we even saw a $9006 once - it's all the same regulars all the time. It's the people who get on at $9600 and lose $3000 and give up that are really getting crushed.

I'd estimate they only get to breakeven numbers at a 10:1 or even 15:1 ratio. That is - they go off under $9600 10-15 times for every 1 time we see one over $9750+ (still -EV @ that number).

And we still have risk. If we're expecting $50,000 average coin in at the halfway point and it runs all the way up AND the short term game payback is only 75% instead of 85% that would be a $15K loss instead of a $2400+ expected profit. Both things can and most likely will happen eventually. They've both happened on the smaller prizes for sure.

We lose all the time on the $100-200 machines at profitable numbers. We've gotten wrecked for $800+ on a $187 that went to $199.99 with no bonuses. We even had a $260 line win to ease the pain a little otherwise it would have been -$1100.
BTLWI
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
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June 24th, 2016 at 11:27:31 PM permalink
The Invite I

Before we came up with what we believe are profitable numbers, there was a machine were watching and waiting for it to get a little bit higher. It was at $9850 and we're holding out for just around $9900.

People have been on it all day and unfortunately when we go and check the machine is locked up at $9879. We check an hour later, still locked. We check 45 minutes later and still locked but a guy is sitting there. I know he does machines and he knows I do and we have a mutual friend (not here). He tells me his partner went to the bank and is coming back with cash by 5 PM. It's like 4:50 so why not wait and see if he doesn't show? We had already asked a slot attendant about the machine and she told us it would be unlocked at 5:05 if the guy didn't return.

While we're waiting the guy on the machine offers me half of his action - 25%. My buddy is with me so we don't hesitate to get in. He then hits us with a shocker, "You know he does max bet ($25) spins, right?" "Uh, no. If we can't talk him out of it, we don't want in.".

He shows up at 4:58 PM and we talk. His main point was he didn't want to be there all night, but you can fast spin these so there's no reason to trade volatility for time. We compromise on $15/spin to start.

By 5:20 PM we have all the logistics worked out and the machine is unlocked by the slot attendant. My buddy and I are splitting the 25% so 12.5% each.

Here's our timeline at $15/spin
-$800 - 5:24 PM
-$800 - 5:34 PM
-$800 - 5:41 PM
-$800 - 5:50 PM
-$800 - 5:53 PM

Well the meter sure is moving fast but our profit is evaporating just as quick. We see people get hand pays at $5/spin all the time on these and we can't even get a measly $500 bonus at $15/spin. It's actually somewhat comical to watch $800 evaporate through a slot machine in 3 minutes flat. And then another $800 in just two minutes after that.

We decide to go down to $10 and $5 a spin. Here's that timeline
-$800 - 5:55 PM
-$800 - 6:09 PM
-$800 - 6:13 PM
-$800 - 6:16 PM
-$800 - 6:22 PM

Even at lowered bet amounts were getting smoked. The machine is almost freerolling us on a loss, we're down $8000 in an hour. However the $800 at 6:22 PM is actually lasting a lot longer, it lasts a full 20 minutes.

-$800 - 6:42 PM

Now we're $8800 in and we're still 6500 movements from the top. 6500 * cost per move = yikes. We have plenty of cash but could be looking at a decent size loss at this point. But thankfully this $800 is producing $500-900 bonus rounds which allow us to churn through high amounts of coin in.

Finally at 7:20 PM
https://imgur.com/HFu36wI

My 12.5% share
-$1100 in
+$1243.50 out

We also have $598 in tickets plus the credits still in for an additional +$92. Our machines produce tickets if the win amount would result in credits over $1200 so some of those last bonuses spit out tickets.

Fun times.
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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June 26th, 2016 at 1:53:28 PM permalink
Not as nice as the larger amount ones on here but pretty good for me... 8 hours of play... 11x day... ran a coupon and got a 50 dollar comp on top. Put in 2k, cashed out 800 and hit the 1548 jackpot with no tip because I had a problem a few years ago at this property and I refuse to even tip the busboy! 27k coin in got me 675 cash back or actually free play which I got exactly 675 back lol! So 348+675+50 dollar comp = 1073/8hrs = roughly 134 an hour so I'm ok with that and I know I'll get some good mail back soon!

DiscreteMaths2
DiscreteMaths2
Joined: May 4, 2016
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June 26th, 2016 at 2:30:50 PM permalink
So is it possible to figure out any of these slot plays in advance ? Or is it based on your actual experience on the specific machines so you can get a feel for HE, meter raise, etc ?
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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June 26th, 2016 at 4:03:25 PM permalink
Some of it is information handed down over the years. Some of it is trial and error. Some of it is sheer volume, meaning after I have ran 100k plus through a game I pretty much know where I'm at. After 1 mil coin in I really know where I'm at for sure. Some of it is chasing promos and progressives around. Some of it is just falling into it. I sorta went over here to play some Video Poker because I thought that a promo was running and come to find out it wasn't on this day but they had another promo which made things playable. The problem with slot plays, for me at least, is that you can get stuck large amounts of money very fast. You can be way upside down with no real chance of breaking even until you get on another machine around the same starting point. So it is more of a long run type of play. Another thing is that you need to be able to stomach the losing. I have been on positive plays for a week before hitting the progressive and that isn't fun if you don't have someone to help you lock up the machine before someone else swoops in on your action. However that really doesn't matter in the long run because your always playing certain machines at certain numbers. In the end I seem to get the money. I'd say 90% of my time is spent on Video Poker plays and I have a route that I check for progressives and other reel plays while I am moving from video poker to video poker. I don't know if I answered your question but I tried. It has been a long day and it is time for bed but I would say that I only know a small amount of information and other shaper players in the city get on much better stuff all the time.

The big thing for me and has always been is that I play on my own money so when I win I don't have to chop anything but when I lose I lose the max :)
DiscreteMaths2
DiscreteMaths2
Joined: May 4, 2016
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June 26th, 2016 at 5:11:53 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

Some of it is information handed down over the years. Some of it is trial and error. Some of it is sheer volume, meaning after I have ran 100k plus through a game I pretty much know where I'm at. After 1 mil coin in I really know where I'm at for sure. Some of it is chasing promos and progressives around. Some of it is just falling into it. I sorta went over here to play some Video Poker because I thought that a promo was running and come to find out it wasn't on this day but they had another promo which made things playable. The problem with slot plays, for me at least, is that you can get stuck large amounts of money very fast. You can be way upside down with no real chance of breaking even until you get on another machine around the same starting point. So it is more of a long run type of play. Another thing is that you need to be able to stomach the losing. I have been on positive plays for a week before hitting the progressive and that isn't fun if you don't have someone to help you lock up the machine before someone else swoops in on your action. However that really doesn't matter in the long run because your always playing certain machines at certain numbers. In the end I seem to get the money. I'd say 90% of my time is spent on Video Poker plays and I have a route that I check for progressives and other reel plays while I am moving from video poker to video poker. I don't know if I answered your question but I tried. It has been a long day and it is time for bed but I would say that I only know a small amount of information and other shaper players in the city get on much better stuff all the time.

The big thing for me and has always been is that I play on my own money so when I win I don't have to chop anything but when I lose I lose the max :)



You definitely did answer my question, thank you.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
BTLWI
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
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June 28th, 2016 at 8:53:39 AM permalink
$2000 cash in only gave us $7500 coin-in , pretty terrible. Oh well, at least we had luck on our side.

https://imgur.com/3KXvNzv
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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July 19th, 2016 at 7:31:51 AM permalink
I've been crushing the Blazing Sevens but no need to show all those pictures unless someone really wants to see them. Anyways this game is kinda new and I have to say a bit fun since I really have enjoyed the movie for more than 25 years now!!

I want an Official Red Ryder Carbine-Action Two-Hundred-Shot Range Model Air Rifle! Of course a 2180 Dollar Jackpot will do just fine!

These Two Pictures go together... the one was during the bonus round and the other was when the machine locked up with no sound at all which was fine by me!



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