Which Would YOU Have Chosen To Do?

No politics, no insults, no questions about sawdust, Denny's Grand Slam Breakfast, or the weather. Just a pure gambling question:

I play a lot of video poker, but I'm no real expert on correct math play. I know a little about getting a play to positive territory but I don't really waste my time practicing that when I go to play. I just play.

This morning a friend of mine called and told me what went down at "his" casino (I think in Lake Charles, La.) this weekend. He was playing a 7/5 25c Bonus Poker machine with a progressive royal flush that was at $1660+. He had just hit four Aces and other quads that had him ahead $240, whcih is quite a bit for a quarter BP game. He said the machine was in a "hot" cycle so he wanted to stay on to see how much more he could extract from it. He would leave if he got to +$100.

Now to the hand in question. The deal was an Ace of hearts, and four offsuited cards to an outside straight (8h,9d,10c,Js). Note: This friend knows his math stuff and considers himself an AP, but in the last year or two he's been slowly migrating over to the R. Singer methodology of mostly math play with other plays that deviate from it, apparently when certain situations arise.

My buddy held the lone Ace which he said RS says to do with such a hand, I presume for the outside opportunity to hit the four Aces. He didn't get any more Aces, but he did get the other four cards for the royal flush. A very nice pay day. He left immediately.

Was this smart in your opinion? Would you have done that? I'm not sure I would have, and I wouldn't feel bad about it either because I would have only been allowed to see the next card out. OTOH, the opportunity popped up and he took advantage of it, resulting in a wad of cash for him. Makes you think.

I think the "right" play is go hold the 4 cards and go for the straight (or a jack to break even). But I've often wondered how many big hands I've missed by playing like this. It's nice to know that there really is a possibility of a big win by playing hands like this the other way.

It's gonna be very difficult to tell your buddy that it was the wrong play.


Hmmm.... Here's my thinking:

Keeping the Ace gave him four chances at 3 outs to pair it. Unless I messed up, that's a total of 26.38% chance of getting at least one more ace, to pair it for even money. Of course, it's incredibly long odds to do much better.

Keeping the open ended straight draw, with a Jack, gave him 11 outs to win. Odds: 11/47=23.4% Except 8/47=17.02% of that is for a chance of getting a straight, at, what, 5:1?

The odds of winning ANYTHING are better holding only the Ace. And I'm not sure of the odds of doing better than a pair of aces, multiplied by the payoff, etc., but they have to be factored in.



Ya know what? Holding the Ace might not have been that dumb.

Well, he was playing a negative machine in the first place, even with the progressive. I would have held the four to an outside straight. You have to take advantage of those opportunities because it is your best chance to get a straight (8 outs). There are plenty of other opportunities to go for the royal when you don't have a better hold possible. At least that's the way I look at it.

Quote: rdw4potus

I think the "right" play is go hold the 4 cards and go for the straight (or a jack to break even). But I've often wondered how many big hands I've missed by playing like this. It's nice to know that there really is a possibility of a big win by playing hands like this the other way.

You've missed less big plays than you would have by playing the less valuable way. All things being equal.

Quote: teddys

Well, he was playing a negative machine in the first place, even with the progressive. I would have held the four to an outside straight. You have to take advantage of those opportunities because it is your best chance to get a straight (8 outs). There are plenty of other opportunities to go for the royal when you don't have a better hold possible. At least that's the way I look at it.

He was going for the Aces. One of the plays he was taught to make was when to hold a lone Ace over slightly more "valuable" hands. I don't think this would hold true in a JoB game though.

my dad hit a royal keeping an Ac in DW before. ive played about ten times the amount of video poker he has. he has hit 5 royals and i have hit ZERO on my own, however i got a share of one playing together with my friend. now of course if hes keeping 1 or 2 to a royal, he is more likely to hit a royal than i am to some degree. however hes run on the ultra sick good side of variance while i ran on the incredibly bad side.

Quote: JerryLogan

He was going for the Aces. One of the plays he was taught to make was when to hold a lone Ace over slightly more "valuable" hands. I don't think this would hold true in a JoB game though.

That's a correct play but really only holds true in mega-bonus games like Super Aces where the Aces are worth a lot. Not in regular Bonus. Even then I think you would still hold the four to a straight.