A craps betting scenario.
I tried to explain to my friend, who knows as much about any kind of casino game as she does about quantum physics, that in order to win that much he had to start off with probably a 7-figure bankroll (or credit line), so, being a millionaire to begin with and having that kind of money to be able to afford to lose, $1.5 million is not really that much when you think in relative terms. It would be like me making $1 bets and winning $5,000; a windfall to be sure, and something to brag about certainly, but not a life-changing experience.
(Interestingly enough, my friend is never told when this brother-in-law comes home a loser. She'd probably shit a pickle if her sister told her he dropped 30 grand or more on a 3-day junket, but then, maybe the sister isn't told either.)
But that aside, what kind of bets must this man have been making to win that much? I know the game but I don't play it so I can't come up with a scenario myself. Would he have had to be making $1,000 pass line bets and backing them up for 50x? Higher than that on the pass line? What would he have had to bet on individual numbers?
I guess my question is, if it were you playing with an unlimited bankroll and your aim was to walk away from the table with $1.5m more than what you started with, what kind of bets would you make?
Quote: tsmithMy friend told me her brother-in-law just got back from a trip to Vegas and that he brought home $1.5m in winnings. The b-i-l plays craps exclusively. I have no other details, such as how many days he was there, where he played, if a shooter held the dice for 3 hours straight, etc.
I tried to explain to my friend, who knows as much about any kind of casino game as she does about quantum physics, that in order to win that much he had to start off with probably a 7-figure bankroll (or credit line), so, being a millionaire to begin with and having that kind of money to be able to afford to lose, $1.5 million is not really that much when you think in relative terms. It would be like me making $1 bets and winning $5,000; a windfall to be sure, and something to brag about certainly, but not a life-changing experience.
(Interestingly enough, my friend is never told when this brother-in-law comes home a loser. She'd probably shit a pickle if her sister told her he dropped 30 grand or more on a 3-day junket, but then, maybe the sister isn't told either.)
But that aside, what kind of bets must this man have been making to win that much? I know the game but I don't play it so I can't come up with a scenario myself. Would he have had to be making $1,000 pass line bets and backing them up for 50x? Higher than that on the pass line? What would he have had to bet on individual numbers?
I guess my question is, if it were you playing with an unlimited bankroll and your aim was to walk away from the table with $1.5m more than what you started with, what kind of bets would you make?
I've won $1,500 betting $5 pass/full odds (5-10x) with Come bets continuous. So if we want to make that 1.5 mill, we just have to make it $5000 on the line, full odds ($25-50k) with some come bets along the way. Place the 6/8 for $6000 or $12000 when they aren't covered also.
Of course, if the bankroll not an issue and you don't feel like playing, the best way would be to just put the $1.5m on the Don't or the Pass once.
I suppose another option is some type of record-breaking roll at a high limit table where he just kept pressing bets....
I would think that if that were the case another player at the table would be talking to someone else about it by now or the casino would be bragging about it.
Another possibility is that my friend, who is extremely naive about all things related to gambling (and many other things), got the story completely wrong. She tends to leave out little details that make big differences.
I asked her more than once if he actually brought home $1.5m more than what he started with and she insisted he did, but like I said, she knows nothing about gambling; even tho she has been to Vegas many times, she goes just for the shows and restaurants and has never once played a slot machine because she says she "doesn't know how to operate them." To give you an idea of how naive she can be, she once told me her husband was involved in dog fights in his younger years, but it was okay because "the dogs didn't get hurt."
Yes, this man is a millionaire, probably a few times over, but my friend insists he's not. Meanwhile, he gets 52" plasma TVs as gifts from the casinos, and his wife gets 1-carat diamond earrings and is given a couple thousand in free play if she accompanies him on his trips.
About 5 years ago he entered the WSOP on a whim. He paid his own $10k admission fee and still had enough left over to play craps for a few days before and after the tournament. He ended up just missing the final cut and collected $275k in prize money. Not bad for a whim, huh?
I'm sure he might have won a lot, but from what I know of his playing history, $10 - 20k is closer to his normal win range. To have won 100 times as much as usual sounds a little hinky to me.
Quote: tsmith
About 5 years ago he entered the WSOP on a whim. He paid his own $10k admission fee and still had enough left over to play craps for a few days before and after the tournament. He ended up just missing the final cut and collected $275k in prize money. Not bad for a whim, huh?
If he won 275k in the main event 5 years ago, he was all over ESPN and probably finished in the top 25. Since ESPN makes you fill out a bunch of info, I'm surprised they didn't do a feature about how he entered on a whim and made it so far. They would have at least talked about it on the broadcast. By the time people are getting that much $$$, they at least do a mini-bio on everyone.
He told us the best part of the tournament for him was when he bluffed Mike Matusow out of a hefty pot.
Bellagio, Wynn, Venetian, all have high limit tables. I walked past a table at Wynn once that didn't even have the lights with the limits on. A single shooter, with a small entourage had his bets spread on one side of the table with chips in the rail in colors that I was not even familar with. To each his own.
Quote: Ayecarumba1.5M, while a couple of wheelbarrows of cash, is not out of reach for a high limit player. While most prefer baccarat or blackjack, there are occassional craps "whales" who will buy in for millions a session. If it actually happened, I would not be surprised if the brother-in-law bought in for 10k - 25k and had a great session. Many "average" players have turned a $100 buy into a few thousand in a session, so going from 10k to 1.5M in a few sessions does not seem out of reach for someone putting 2,500 line bets with 3x-5x odds, placing 5k on individual numbers, and getting an occassional $1k hardway to fall.
Bellagio, Wynn, Venetian, all have high limit tables. I walked past a table at Wynn once that didn't even have the lights with the limits on. A single shooter, with a small entourage had his bets spread on one side of the table with chips in the rail in colors that I was not even familar with. To each his own.
No doubt. I've had shooters where I was only playing pass + come with full odds and I've cashed out ~8-10x from the $300-400 where I started by pressing once I had recouped my original buyin. The shooters hit a 3 or 4 sevens and it was always on the comeout so I lost a few bets during those rolls. I imagine if I had started off playing the numbers across on those rolls I would have made about 10k. An assessment of starting off with 10k to 25k sounds about right assuming he had a hot shooter and he plays a super high variance style of craps where he presses his bets almost immediately.
Most posted maximums would not permit you to win $1.5 million with any likely degree of probability. He would have to have secured permission to make very large bets. I agree that he would probably have to have a marker of several hundred thousand at a minimum.
One story Tom Breitling tells about the Golden Nugget is that after he sold the business to Landry's Restaurant he permitted a gambler to exceed the maximum. The high limit gambler won $1 million in the course of an evening. Landry's corporate executives were furious since they took the hit. Of course, had the gambler lost it would have been their windfall. They didn't see it that way, and they almost ko'd the deal. It seems funny that they would stop a $315 million deal over $1 million in bets (since they might have won). It goes to show you how risk adversive some casino owners can be.
But even at $1K with 50X odds it is still tough to win $1.5 million. Only a limited number of places permit odds over 20X. Notably in Las Vegas are the three casinos managed by Cannery Resorts (North Las Vegas, Eastside Cannery, and Rampart Casino at Marriot Summerlin) all of which permit 100X free odds. I don't think that Cannery will permit bets over $2K. He was much more likely to be betting at one of the big four in Vegas (Harrah's, MGM Resorts, Wynn, or Sands).
$1.5 million is not a wheelbarrow full of cash. In $100 banknotes that is 33 pounds. It's more like a suitcase. Now in $20 bills that would be a wheelbarrow.
Search the website for Freeze out calculations where an example is explained by the Wizard on how to do these calculations. Anything is possible, but I would say that if he was betting maximum 3,4,5X odds that the smallest pass line bet he was doing was $10K. He might have had a marker for only $300-$500K and got lucky.
