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Dantheman
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
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May 6th, 2015 at 8:06:52 PM permalink
I am in search of some streak data for baccarat or roulette.
I am interested in how many streaks happen per shoe/ number of hands or number of spins.
I am interested in streaks of between 2-10
For example I DO NOT consider a 2 streak as a streak of 2 or more. A streak would be exactly 2, then reset to 0. As such 4 in a row is 2 x 2 streaks, 6 in a row as 3 x 2 streaks and so on
I am not interested in ties for baccarat, roulette would be a single zero wheel.

As you may be able to tell from my other posts I am quite interested in streaks currently, any data on this subject would be appreciated.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 6th, 2015 at 8:59:57 PM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

For example I DO NOT consider a 2 streak as a streak of 2 or more.
A streak would be exactly 2, then reset to 0. As such 4 in a row is 2 x 2 streaks, 6 in a row as 3 x 2 streaks and so on

really?
so this in Bacc
BBBBP
the most common way to count streaks (run)

to me a B run = 4 and the frequency = 1 (frequency = number of times)
P run = 1 and the frequency = 1

B run is not equal to 2 and the frequency = 2
but it could be

another example
BB BB BB BB BB BB P
the
B run = 2 and freq = 6
the run also = 12 and freq = 1
this is the way I have data

so actually larger streaks can be counted as smaller streaks

but this
BB BP

i see as a B run = 3 and freq = 1
do you see this as run = 2 and freq = 1
and run = 1 and freq = 1 for B
and P run =1 and freq = 1

the counting methods have to be the same or one counts an apple as an orange
Sally
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Venthus
Venthus
Joined: Dec 10, 2012
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May 6th, 2015 at 11:00:26 PM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

For example I DO NOT consider a 2 streak as a streak of 2 or more. A streak would be exactly 2, then reset to 0. As such 4 in a row is 2 x 2 streaks, 6 in a row as 3 x 2 streaks and so on



Does that mean BBBBBB would be (3 streaks of 2) and (2 streaks of 3) and (1 streak of 6) and ([1 streak of 4] and [1 streak of 2]), for a total of 7 (or 8, still depending on how it's counted) streaks?
NokTang
NokTang
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May 7th, 2015 at 12:36:16 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

Does that mean BBBBBB would be (3 streaks of 2) and (2 streaks of 3) and (1 streak of 6) and ([1 streak of 4] and [1 streak of 2]), for a total of 7 (or 8, still depending on how it's counted) streaks?



It depends on how much you wager and if you chicken out.
Dantheman
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
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May 7th, 2015 at 2:25:09 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

Does that mean BBBBBB would be (3 streaks of 2) and (2 streaks of 3) and (1 streak of 6) and ([1 streak of 4]



Yes correct.
I would be interested to find data that would break down into 2-10 streaks
Eg BBBBBBPPBPBBBPB
2 streaks = 5
3 streaks = 3
4 streaks = 1
5 streaks =1
6 streaks = 1

If someone has a data set where each shoe is broken down this way, that is what I am looking for.
Dantheman
Dantheman
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May 7th, 2015 at 2:33:53 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally



another example
BB BB BB BB BB BB P
the
B run = 2 and freq = 6
the run also = 12 and freq = 1
this is the way I have data

so actually larger streaks can be counted as smaller streaks

but this
BB BP

i see as a B run = 3 and freq = 1
do you see this as run = 2 and freq = 1
and run = 1 and freq = 1 for B
and P run =1 and freq = 1

the counting methods have to be the same or one counts an apple as an orange
Sally



Yes in the first example i see:
Run 2- freq 6
Run 3- freq 4
Run 4- freq 3
Run 5- freq 2
Run 6- freq 2

In the second example i see:
Run 2- freq 1
Run 3- freq 1

Im not particularly worried whether the streaks are from player or banker, more interested in the total.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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May 7th, 2015 at 8:06:20 AM permalink
Here's what I get from one billion (with a B) hands of baccarat (note that a streak does continue from one shoe to the next):
301,815,490 streaks of 2
129,380,307 streaks of 3
60,396,670 streaks of 4
29,238,104 streaks of 5
14,400,732 streaks of 6
7,149,457 streaks of 7
3,564,296 streaks of 8
1,780,153 streaks of 9
890,144 streaks of 10
445,291 streaks of 11
223,464 streaks of 12
111,843 streaks of 13
56,207 streaks of 14
28,121 streaks of 15
14,157 streaks of 16
7114 streaks of 17
3624 streaks of 18
1857 streaks of 19
954 streaks of 20
461 streaks of 21
234 streaks of 22
120 streaks of 23
59 streaks of 24
25 streaks of 25
8 streaks of 26
5 streaks of 27
1 streaks of 28
1 streaks of 29

This is in line with the expected value:
The number of 3-streaks is 3/7 the number of 2-streaks
The number of 4-streaks is 7/15 the number of 3-streaks
The number of 5-streaks is 15/31 the number of 4-streaks
...
The number of N-streaks is (2N-1 - 1) / (2N - 1), or 1/2 - 1 / (2N - 2), the number of (N-1)-streaks.
As N grows, this gets closer and closer to 1/2.


Assume the two results - say, P and B - each have a probability 1/2 of occurring.

A streak of 5 is either PPPPPB or BBBBBP. However, since the last result in a streak is also the first result in a new streak, you can ignore the first result in each streak (i.e. "PPPPB" is actually a streak of five, as the first P is counted at the end of the previous streak of one or more Bs).
Thus, the probability of a streak of N occurring at any particular point is 1 / 2N.
However, a streak of N is also counted in a streak of 2N, 3N, 4N, and so on, so, for example, the probability of a streak of 2 being counted is 1/4 + 1/42 + 1/43 + 1/44 + ... = 1/4 x (1 / (1 - 1/4)) = 1/4 x 4/3 = 1/3.
The probability of a streak of N being counted is 1/2N + 1/22N + 1/23N + ... = 1/2N x (1 / (1 - 1/2N)) = 1/2N x (2N / (2N - 1)) = 1 / (2N - 1).
Thus, the ratio of streakss of N to streaks of N-1 is (1 / (2N - 1)) / (1 / (2N-1 - 1)) = (2N-1 - 1) / (2N - 1).

mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 7th, 2015 at 11:23:34 AM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

Yes in the first example i see:
Run 2- freq 6
Run 3- freq 4
Run 4- freq 3
Run 5- freq 2
Run 6- freq 2

In the second example i see:
Run 2- freq 1
Run 3- freq 1

Im not particularly worried whether the streaks are from player or banker, more interested in the total.

ok
that data can easily come from the streaks of PB runs per 8 deck shoe I posted before

my observation
by making BBB BBB

a run of 6 and 5 and 4 with freq = 1
and a run of 3 and freq=2
run of 2 and freq=3
all this from one run of 6

you create a large overlap in the data
i would like to see what you want to use this for

sure hope not a betting trigger!
==========================================
so you are really interested in a sequence of PP or BB
and their frequencies per shoe

I have that data stuff but do not know where it is
you can do this yourself too

every 3 run in a run data table adds to the PP or BB (2 run)
every 4 run adds 2* the number of 4 runs to the 2 run and so on

so i get this to start
8deck - 14 card ribbon (81.2 avg # of rounds)
i only did 1 million shoes as 100 million shoes will not have that much of an average difference that matters to me
but time does

count PP or BB (2 run)
freq=24386071
mean=24.386071

count PPP or BBB (3 run)
freq=10344683
mean=10.344683

count PPPP or BBBB (4 run)
freq=4773116
mean=4.773116

count PPPPP or BBBBB (5 run)
freq=2281898
mean=2.281898

count PPPPPP or BBBBBB (6 run)
freq=1107921
mean=1.107921

count PPPPPPP or BBBBBBB (7 run)
freq=274009
mean=0.274009

i stopped at 7
think you can finish if you want
maybe i look and see (C) what Don did

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 7th, 2015 at 12:14:27 PM permalink
Quote: Dantheman

I would be interested to find data that would break down into 2-10 streaks
Eg BBBBBBPPBPBBBPB
2 streaks = 5
3 streaks = 3
4 streaks = 1
5 streaks =1
6 streaks = 1

the data I have would show
BBBBBB
PP
B
P
BBB
P
B

run1: 4
run2: 1
run3: 1
run4: 0
run5: 0
run6: 1
total runs: 7

you want it to show 11 total runs (actually sequences)
Quote: Dantheman

If someone has a data set where each shoe is broken down this way, that is what I am looking for.

i think what you seek has never been done per shoe in a large data set

you may have to do this yourself
good luck and have fun
Sally

added;
there IS a free software program that can do exactly what you want
i now remember this

edit again
example
I ran 10k shoes with printout

======= shoe 10000 ======= (3/J2J)T36Q92Q95J...9355 ======= 83 games =======
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
PBPBPBPPBBPPBPPPTPBBBPBBBBPBBPTTBBBBPPPPTPBPPPTPPPBPBPBBPTPPPPBBBBTPBPBBPPPP
BBBTBBP
------------------------- frequencies [sequences] --------------------------
39 P 13 PP 6 PPP 5 PPPP 3 PPPPP
1 PPPPPP 0 PPPPPPP 0 PPPPPPPP 0 PPPPPPPPP 0 PPPPPPPPPP
36 B 13 BB 5 BBB 4 BBBB 1 BBBBB
0 BBBBBB 0 BBBBBBB 0 BBBBBBBB 0 BBBBBBBBB 0 BBBBBBBBBB


========================== summary [10000 shoes] ===========================
-------------------------- summary [10000 shoes] ---------------------------
------------------------- frequencies [sequences] --------------------------
363341 P 118873 PP 50094 PPP 22871 PPPP
10816 PPPPP 5207 PPPPPP 2463 PPPPPPP 1174 PPPPPPPP
577 PPPPPPPPP 282 PPPPPPPPPP 373232 B 124387 BB
53308 BBB 24864 BBBB 12174 BBBBB 5999 BBBBBB
2990 BBBBBBB 1442 BBBBBBBB 729 BBBBBBBBB 352 BBBBBBBBBB


============================================================================
decks: 8
shuffle marker: 13
time: 08:18:12.3-->08:19:19.65 (67.62)
random seed: 1530914819

there is a learning curve to this Baccarat program
it is the WinStats program by Rick Parris at Peanut Software
wow
he has been gone for almost 3 years
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Dantheman
Dantheman
Joined: Apr 21, 2015
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May 10th, 2015 at 3:49:59 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

ok
that data can easily come from the streaks of PB runs per 8 deck shoe I posted before

my observation
by making BBB BBB

a run of 6 and 5 and 4 with freq = 1
and a run of 3 and freq=2
run of 2 and freq=3
all this from one run of 6

you create a large overlap in the data
i would like to see what you want to use this for

sure hope not a betting trigger!
==========================================
so you are really interested in a sequence of PP or BB
and their frequencies per shoe

I have that data stuff but do not know where it is
you can do this yourself too

every 3 run in a run data table adds to the PP or BB (2 run)
every 4 run adds 2* the number of 4 runs to the 2 run and so on

so i get this to start
8deck - 14 card ribbon (81.2 avg # of rounds)
i only did 1 million shoes as 100 million shoes will not have that much of an average difference that matters to me
but time does

count PP or BB (2 run)
freq=24386071
mean=24.386071

count PPP or BBB (3 run)
freq=10344683
mean=10.344683

count PPPP or BBBB (4 run)
freq=4773116
mean=4.773116

count PPPPP or BBBBB (5 run)
freq=2281898
mean=2.281898

count PPPPPP or BBBBBB (6 run)
freq=1107921
mean=1.107921

count PPPPPPP or BBBBBBB (7 run)
freq=274009
mean=0.274009

i stopped at 7
think you can finish if you want
maybe i look and see (C) what Don did

Sally




Thankyou I may pursue this further as I am interested in how far from the mean it is generally distributed.

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