Calling all APs

What percentage of AP

comes from games with a known edge like BJ.
with known but temporary edges like progressives.
with mostly unknown edges.
where you take advantage of other player's mistakes.
where you take advantage of casino or casino personnel mistakes.
from promotions, bounce back or prizes.
team play which you couldn't do on your own.

How would you break it down percentage wise?


And did I forget a category? I think there is some overlap here, but not sure how to fix that. Or you can rate by most important to least important.

Of course, you can all refuse to answer. hah.

80% of my yearly EV comes from BJ. 20% from promotions, bounce back and prizes from machine play.

My partner and I do a limited amount of BJ team play, my own unique version of the 'call in' approach. We mostly save this for out of town play as opposed to our regular rotation of stores. The EV from this is already included in my 80/20 breakdown.

I don't care for taking advantage of either dealer or player mistakes. As far as dealer mistakes, I will take them when they occur, because pointing them out can draw as much or more attention and my game is all about drawing minimal attention (flying under the radar, as much as possible). So I will accept mistakes, but won't seek them out. (yes you can seek out dealer that are prone to making mistakes or attempt to entice them into mistakes).

As far as player mistakes, this is why I don't play poker. I don't feel comfortable "taking" from other players. But there are occasions that as a BJ player I can benefit by another players mistakes. Things like buying a double or split that they don't want to play. There are players that 'specialize' in these "scavenger" plays. I don't. I will take advantage of some, but only after I have told the player that he is better off doubling himself. If he still doesn't want to, then yes I will take that double.

Don't think you're gonna get the answer you're looking for.

But, lots of APs are a mixture of several of those things.

I guess, the least would be progressive/temporary edges. Unless that includes UX. If it includes UX, then the highest.

Varies widely from player to player.

Some people get 100% from counting cards, others get 100% from machine play, others get 100% from promotions/cashback/etc. Plenty have a mix of everything.

Quote: kewlj

As far as dealer mistakes, I will take them when they occur, because pointing them out can draw as much or more attention and my game is all about drawing minimal attention (flying under the radar, as much as possible). So I will accept mistakes, but won't seek them out. (yes you can seek out dealer that are prone to making mistakes or attempt to entice them into mistakes).

Out of pure curiosity, have you ever tried to estimate how much of you average annual win comes from dealer errors? I'm including both mispays and procedural errors allowing you to back out of bad starting hands or giving you knowledge of next card type information. As a casual counter, I'd conservatively estimate that a good 10% of my win has come from dealer error.

Oddly enough, I don't think the 10% figure is too far off. That's really something like 1 hand (or 1 unit swing) every 1,000 hands of play or 10 hours.

I just recently realized that a bit of AP comes from having multiple IDs or multiple players cards. I thought casinos would be more strict and careful with handing out these cards? One poster recently talked of hitting a play with 4 players cards. Another player made a reference to having fake IDs and IDs from different states. Before these posts I had never really considered that this could happen. But I guess if you played quarter VP with no chance of a W2G, then you can just put some coin in and collect your mailers and free play every month

My estimate would be much lower than 10%.

Most dealer errors involving payout occur with my smaller wagers out. They are more likely to take a second look and catch themselves when I have my larger wagers out.

In addition, those procedural type errors, where the pit has a great deal of discretion are sometimes handled differently (tighter) when you have larger wagers out. I am talking about situations where if it is a low stakes table and the dealer makes a procedural error, the pit will often allow you to pull out of the hand and then if you choose to play, and lose, they will still call it a push. Those types of overly generous remedies are often reserved for low limit play. When you have 4-5 hundred dollars (or more) out, they don't tend to be quite so generous. lol.

Quote: Beardgoat

I just recently realized that a bit of AP comes from having multiple IDs or multiple players cards. I thought casinos would be more strict and careful with handing out these cards? One poster recently talked of hitting a play with 4 players cards. Another player made a reference to having fake IDs and IDs from different states. Before these posts I had never really considered that this could happen. But I guess if you played quarter VP with no chance of a W2G, then you can just put some coin in and collect your mailers and free play every month

Casinos make FAR more money handing players cards out like candy than they would if they did a full ID check on people (like, you have to bring a piece of mail with your name on it, etc..) The losses to APers having multiple cards are minor compared to how many people would get turned away if they did strict identity checks.

Quote: sc15

Casinos make FAR more money handing players cards out like candy than they would if they did a full ID check on people (like, you have to bring a piece of mail with your name on it, etc..) The losses to APers having multiple cards are minor compared to how many people would get turned away if they did strict identity checks.

Le's not continue the discussion on THIS topic in public. I very recently received a rap on the knuckles with a rules by Sister XXXXXXXX for my earlier mention of the topic. :/

I guess I don't follow. I thought ID was required to get a players card? And whenever I use my card for comps or whatever, I feel like I also get asked for my ID to prove I am using my players card. Seems like you're saying people are getting players cards without showing a valid ID?

Quote: Beardgoat

I guess I don't follow. I thought ID was required to get a players card? And whenever I use my card for comps or whatever, I feel like I also get asked for my ID to prove I am using my players card. Seems like you're saying people are getting players cards without showing a valid ID?

If you say you don't have a drivers license, they
will accept other forms of ID which might be bogus.
They just want to get you in the system and on
the hook. Connect it to a mail forwarding address
in another state and you're good to go. Or so
I'm told.

Quote: EvenBob

If you say you don't have a drivers license, they
will accept other forms of ID which might be bogus.
They just want to get you in the system and on
the hook. Connect it to a mail forwarding address
in another state and you're good to go. Or so
I'm told.

Pretty much this.

Some casinos are strict about it, but a lot have the attitude of "well, if a sucker comes in and wants a player's card, give em one!"

edited

It's illegal. People have and will continue to be arrested and taken to jail for doing it.

Quote: sabre

Out of pure curiosity, have you ever tried to estimate how much of you average annual win comes from dealer errors? I'm including both mispays and procedural errors allowing you to back out of bad starting hands or giving you knowledge of next card type information. As a casual counter, I'd conservatively estimate that a good 10% of my win has come from dealer error.

I do and it's negligible. I do nothing to encourage dealer mistakes and I don't stay too long if a dealer makes multiple mistakes, deliberate or otherwise. It's not that I'm a goody two shoes, I take mistakes in my favor as much as the next guy. I strive to avoid any attention from the pit or sky as well as any appearance of collusion.

I am a noobie to this forum (which I am enjoying, by the way) and I have an incredibly ignorant question to ask. What does the acronym AP mean when used in this forum? At first I thought it meant "Alert Player" , i.e., a card counter -type, but sometimes it's use seems to mean "Advanced Player" or something else. I couldn't find a forum glossary, so I'm revealing my noobishness and asking.

Questions are encouraged! I'm glad you're liking it. You have the right idea. It refers to advantage play or advantage player, someone who sometimes or always plays with an advantage in a casino.

Should I laugh or should I cry?