Would You Take This Bet?

Just came across a pretty amusing/entertaining youtube video of a guy offering people 1-1 odds on a coin flip. All refused, not wanting to "gamble." Then he offered them more and more odds, getting up to 2-1 in a few cases, and still people didn't want to take the bet because they considered it "gambling." Eventually he said, okay, what if we do the bet 100 times in a row right now? The EV, as you'll see, at a 2-1 rate on a 50/50 trail is of course in the advantage of the person receiving the 2-1. Not surprisingly, the ploppies didn't want to take the bet =p.

Anyways, I was amused, so hopefully you can be entertained too =).



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBX-KulgJ1o

At what rate would you take the bet?

EDIT: As stated in his comment on the video... This isn't the old "coin flipping" trick. This is a fair, unbiased coin, that either participant can flip.

1.2/1. Even money is a waste of time, I could be watching cat videos.

Quote: Mosca

1.2/1. Even money is a waste of time, I could be watching cat videos.

Hehe.. That was pretty funny.

didn't watch much of this. Unless I knew this person I would not take the bet for the following reasons. I say the people who perhaps he was making fun of, were pretty smart.

*I would wind up with cider in my ear OR

*this person would welch

*at the very least he would not continue to offer the bet giving me odds, should I take him up on it once, and I don't need 12 quid that bad

Possibility of getting paid: fairly small. I've become convinced that much of private betting is -EV. Reasons: trickery and welching.

If I could use my own coin, call it myself, and the toss lands on the ground or a flat surface, and could get odds greater than even money, I would consider taking the bet.

You will never convince me that someone else's coin isn't loaded somehow.

The tosser isn't allowed to catch it because John Scarne once described a method where he caught a coin, put it against his arm, felt whether it was heads or tails, and used his hand somehow to flip it if necessary (he was in a coin-matching game with two players who had two-tailed coins).

If the other person calls it, you get a situation similar to how a local election was decided years ago; whoever called it said something that wasn't clearly "heads" or "tails", and when it landed, he claimed that the result was what he called.

Another "trick" I read about; you owe someone money and he offers you double-or-nothing on a coin toss, but he uses a two-headed coin; if you call "heads", he grabs the coin in mid-toss and says, "Just testing you. Pay up."

There's a guy who can see the coin rotate and call it correctly. I believe he is autistic and has a very highly energetic visual cortex to compensate. Knowing that person exists I would have to pass.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

You will never convince me that someone else's coin isn't loaded somehow.

Having flipped a coin or two, it's usually not the coin that's loaded. I always question if the toss is fair.

Since I know that anyone offering a coin flip bet may be at least as skilled at coin influencing as I am, I'm not going to take the bet.

I might, however, offer the bet.

You want to actually gamble, I think we have a better chance of a fair 50-50 on a shuffled deck of cards, cut/burn as you like, flop 3... and we bet on the majority color, red/black.

I won't take that bet against Ricky Jay or anyone who would recognize the name "Erdnase", however.

Quote: tongni

There's a guy who can see the coin rotate and call it correctly. I believe he is autistic and has a very highly energetic visual cortex to compensate. Knowing that person exists I would have to pass.

Yeah right.

He should go crush roulette.

While I agree I would never take this bet from a random stranger without first inspecting the coin (or using my own) and me flipping it to a flat surface (no one touches it), after that if I got any odds greater than even money I would absolutely take the bet.

For the context of the video recall he was using a fair coin, and a fair flip.

It has been scientifically proven that a coin will more often land with the same side up pre-flip and post-flip, than the opposite.

Also, studies have also shown that a spinning penny will eventually end "tails" side up more often than "heads" by a wide margin (the "heads" side has more material than the other side, so it tends to end up on the bottom more often.)

The problem is people think it's a trick. There are people like that chick who won't go for anything.

I would have taken 15 for 10 from HIM. He didn't seem to be conning. However if someone pops out of the shadows, Ill pass.

I'm wondering if a sly looking person turned the tables on him, and offered him a big bet, with their coin and flip, what would he do?

I'm willing to bet most people would say no, because they think something is unfair or it's a trick. The video is a bad example of human psychology, risk and gambling.

Quote: Romes

Just came across a pretty amusing/entertaining youtube video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBX-KulgJ1o

Great video. He's right, many people are
extremely risk averse. My youngest
daughter and her aunt take $40 each
to the casino for the slots, and are in
agony if they lose. Like he says, the
pain of a loss is felt far more than the
pleasure of a win.

Look how math challenged the people
in the video are. Some people just can't
lay the money down, even if the bet
is a lock. It's the old 'a bird in the hand
is worth two in the bush'. I think most
people are like this, it's instinctual.