linksjunkie
linksjunkie
Joined: Feb 28, 2014
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September 5th, 2014 at 6:07:51 AM permalink
Good morning all. This is my first thread but I have enjoyed this site for quite some time.

I have a math question I need some assistance with. My lodge has a weekly drawing called the Queen of Hearts. It uses 54 card deck(jokers included). Cards are in envelopes on a bulletin board individually numbered 1-54. People purchase raffle tickets and put the envelope number they wish opened on the ticket.

Each Saturday a ticket is drawn and the numbered envelope is opened. If the card in the envelope is the Queen of hearts the person receives 2/3 of the jackpot if they are present - 1/3 if not present.

Our most recent game has gotten down to the last 2 envelopes without the Queen of hearts being drawn.

Just curious what the probability of this occurring might be. I have got to think it is pretty small. One other note, I know this game is not rigged. I have a hand in setting up the board and the board is kept under lock a key - so no funny stuff going on.

One other local lodge actually went down to the last card in this game, however, there was some question as to the legitimacy of their game.

Any help that could be provided would be greatly appreciates.

FYI - I won a couple of years ago for a cool $7000.

Thanks again.
Son you ainít paying attention Iím cutting you but you ainít bleeding - Foghorn Leghorn
wudged
wudged
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September 5th, 2014 at 6:23:07 AM permalink
Quote: linksjunkie

Good morning all. This is my first thread but I have enjoyed this site for quite some time.

I have a math question I need some assistance with. My lodge has a weekly drawing called the Queen of Hearts. It uses 54 card deck(jokers included). Cards are in envelopes on a bulletin board individually numbered 1-54. People purchase raffle tickets and put the envelope number they wish opened on the ticket.

Each Saturday a ticket is drawn and the numbered envelope is opened. If the card in the envelope is the Queen of hearts the person receives 2/3 of the jackpot if they are present - 1/3 if not present.

Our most recent game has gotten down to the last 2 envelopes without the Queen of hearts being drawn.

Just curious what the probability of this occurring might be. I have got to think it is pretty small. One other note, I know this game is not rigged. I have a hand in setting up the board and the board is kept under lock a key - so no funny stuff going on.

One other local lodge actually went down to the last card in this game, however, there was some question as to the legitimacy of their game.

Any help that could be provided would be greatly appreciates.

FYI - I won a couple of years ago for a cool $7000.

Thanks again.



First week would be 53/54 chance of not getting Qh
Second week would be 52/53
etc.
Last week would be 2/3

You end up with (53*52*51..3*2) / (54*53*52..4*3) Almost everything cancels out except 2 / 54 = 3.7%

Another way to look at it is in reverse order. Suppose you picked 2 cards out of a deck of 54, what are the chances you would have drawn Qh in either case? You would get 1/54 + (53/54) * (1/53) = 2/54
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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September 5th, 2014 at 6:46:30 AM permalink
you can be sure there are suspicious players out there.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
linksjunkie
linksjunkie
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September 5th, 2014 at 7:18:42 AM permalink
Thank you for your input. Have a great and hopefully profitable weekend.
Son you ainít paying attention Iím cutting you but you ainít bleeding - Foghorn Leghorn
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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September 5th, 2014 at 11:39:49 PM permalink
Quote: linksjunkie

Good morning all. This is my first thread but I have enjoyed this site for quite some time.

I have a math question I need some assistance with. My lodge has a weekly drawing called the Queen of Hearts. .



Welcome to the board, links! My lodge does the same thing. You're not a Moose in Florida, by any chance?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RS
RS
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September 5th, 2014 at 11:45:35 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Welcome to the board, links! My lodge does the same thing. You're not a Moose in Florida, by any chance?



There are mooses in Florida!?
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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September 5th, 2014 at 11:56:57 PM permalink
Quote: RS

There are mooses in Florida!?



lol...why, yes! Gotta watch for them on the back roads.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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September 6th, 2014 at 4:07:59 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Gotta watch for them on the back roads.



no kidding, they really get tanked up in their lodges [g].

Actually, I'm not sure if that's a joke.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tongni
tongni
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September 7th, 2014 at 3:05:36 AM permalink
I bet a skilled cheat can think of ten different ways to manipulate the game even with you watching and being present in the board setup.
Boz
Boz
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September 7th, 2014 at 5:03:01 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Welcome to the board, links! My lodge does the same thing. You're not a Moose in Florida, by any chance?




I've been to the Moose Lodge in Keg Largo, Islemorada and Big Pine Key and they are like small casinos. People are betting on everything.
Dieter
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Dieter
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September 7th, 2014 at 6:23:00 AM permalink
Quote: tongni

I bet a skilled cheat can think of ten different ways to manipulate the game even with you watching and being present in the board setup.



I'm sure, but he'll need to cheat both the board and the raffle.

Hopefully, anyone involved in setting up the board or conducting the raffle has recused themselves from play. Doing so means they'd also need to involve a confederate to cash out.
May the cards fall in your favor.
tongni
tongni
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September 7th, 2014 at 12:21:56 PM permalink
You wouldn't need to do both. Let me give you some examples.

You go in late at night and pick the lock on the board, find the Qh and buy lots of raffle tickets when the jackpot is large.

As a mechanic, under the scrutiny of others you shuffle the Qh to the 5th card from the top before placing it in an envelope. Then, you buy a lot of tickets to play.

You palm one ticket and when you reach into the drum you pull out the palmed ticket.

Also, seems pretty easy to find a confederate or group of confederates. If you want to donate to the house, just give them 1/3rd of the money you would have spent on tickets.

I would not personally play this game unless the OP is taking much stronger game protection measures than origignally described. I also don't see how he can set up the board and buy a ticket and win $7000, seems like a huge conflict of interest.
linksjunkie
linksjunkie
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September 7th, 2014 at 5:18:17 PM permalink
Hi Babs - No not a Moose. Elk in Ohio

Tongi - Pretty small lodge and yes there could definitely be cheating. We have a fairly good board set-up routine. 4-5 people involved. Cards shuffled placed face down. Then washed on table. Next couple people put into small envelopes(card sized). Next couple of people then mix envelopes and hand number 1 thru 54. But yes with dishonest people, could be an issue fairly easily. Fortunately, pretty good group of guys in our small lodge.

The Ripoff/BB ticket vendors now sell pre-made Queen of hearts boards. You have to use a box cutter to take the card off of the board. Many/most of the local lodges/bars now use these for their games. Cost isn't too high $70-80 a board. One reason most clubs/bars have went to the pre-made boards is that there have been a few games go to the last couple of cards. People started feeling that the clubs/bars were keeping the Qh's off the board until late in the game to build big jackpots, thus bringing in larger crowds, generating more revenue. Unfortunately, this suspicion was not without reason. A Moose lodge (sorry Babs) in southern Ohio had a game complete w/o a Qh's ever showing up. I'm assuming that it wasn't a pre-made board. I'm sure they had a very interesting lodge meeting after that happened.
Son you ainít paying attention Iím cutting you but you ainít bleeding - Foghorn Leghorn
Dieter
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Dieter
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September 8th, 2014 at 8:01:53 AM permalink
Quote: tongni

You go in late at night and pick the lock on the board, find the Qh and buy lots of raffle tickets when the jackpot is large.

As a mechanic, under the scrutiny of others you shuffle the Qh to the 5th card from the top before placing it in an envelope. Then, you buy a lot of tickets to play.



Both of these are cheating the board. While stacking the raffle may not be outright cheating, it's certainly a questionable play, readily overcome with a limit on ticket purchases per person per round.

Quote: tongni

You palm one ticket and when you reach into the drum you pull out the palmed ticket.



That sounds like it would require knowledge of the board to be effective. (1 card remaining on the board constitutes knowledge of the board, even if it doesn't require an illicit advantage to gain said knowledge.)

Quote: tongni

Also, seems pretty easy to find a confederate or group of confederates. If you want to donate to the house, just give them 1/3rd of the money you would have spent on tickets.



Surely organizations such as lodges have strict standards about allowing only members of the finest character, and processes for removing grossly errant members for "conduct unbecoming".


edit:formatting
May the cards fall in your favor.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 12th, 2016 at 2:18:59 AM permalink
There is a big one in Garrettsville. $1.7 million pot not won, 10, 000 people show up.
http://www.wfmj.com/story/33069003/no-winner-in-garrettsville-queen-of-hearts-drawing

Another last year got up to $1.8 at Barry Dyngles Pub in Austintown, Ohio. I just like thinking a casino or lottery doesn't take a cut in these big games and all the money gets distributed back to winners.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 12th, 2016 at 2:27:49 AM permalink
Quote: linksjunkie

Hi Babs - No not a Moose. Elk in Ohio

Tongi - Pretty small lodge and yes there could definitely be cheating. We have a fairly good board set-up routine. 4-5 people involved. Cards shuffled placed face down. Then washed on table. Next couple people put into small envelopes(card sized). Next couple of people then mix envelopes and hand number 1 thru 54. But yes with dishonest people, could be an issue fairly easily. Fortunately, pretty good group of guys in our small lodge.

The Ripoff/BB ticket vendors now sell pre-made Queen of hearts boards. You have to use a box cutter to take the card off of the board. Many/most of the local lodges/bars now use these for their games. Cost isn't too high $70-80 a board. One reason most clubs/bars have went to the pre-made boards is that there have been a few games go to the last couple of cards. People started feeling that the clubs/bars were keeping the Qh's off the board until late in the game to build big jackpots, thus bringing in larger crowds, generating more revenue. Unfortunately, this suspicion was not without reason. A Moose lodge (sorry Babs) in southern Ohio had a game complete w/o a Qh's ever showing up. I'm assuming that it wasn't a pre-made board. I'm sure they had a very interesting lodge meeting after that happened.

That's funny no queen. Rivers has a promotion using a queen of hearts drawing which goes up $10,000 a week every week no winner, and one of the ladies which didn't find the queen is hoping they screwed up, so she'll get $10,000. Rivers kind of cheated already in my opinion. When it started the first 20 or so weeks, you only got one entry for every 500 points earned that Saturday, but then they added free entries they just give everyone based on play. Kind of them rigging it so a regular club member with a huge problem wins instead of someone buying the hype and earning entries that day and winning.


In the beginning, people with lowest entry-level cards were winning being called up and that's over now. Earned entries are
deflated in value a lot. I didn't keep track, but maybe earned 1-5 when I went months ago, then they started giving me 12 free which later dropped with my rating. God knows a few there might be comped a 1000 entries to their biggest player. Out of whack. They know they're cheating instead of taking responsibility sticking with the original game as it was played.
I am a robot.

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