linksjunkie
linksjunkie
Joined: Feb 28, 2014
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September 5th, 2014 at 6:07:51 AM permalink
Good morning all. This is my first thread but I have enjoyed this site for quite some time.

I have a math question I need some assistance with. My lodge has a weekly drawing called the Queen of Hearts. It uses 54 card deck(jokers included). Cards are in envelopes on a bulletin board individually numbered 1-54. People purchase raffle tickets and put the envelope number they wish opened on the ticket.

Each Saturday a ticket is drawn and the numbered envelope is opened. If the card in the envelope is the Queen of hearts the person receives 2/3 of the jackpot if they are present - 1/3 if not present.

Our most recent game has gotten down to the last 2 envelopes without the Queen of hearts being drawn.

Just curious what the probability of this occurring might be. I have got to think it is pretty small. One other note, I know this game is not rigged. I have a hand in setting up the board and the board is kept under lock a key - so no funny stuff going on.

One other local lodge actually went down to the last card in this game, however, there was some question as to the legitimacy of their game.

Any help that could be provided would be greatly appreciates.

FYI - I won a couple of years ago for a cool $7000.

Thanks again.
Son you ainít paying attention Iím cutting you but you ainít bleeding - Foghorn Leghorn
wudged
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
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September 5th, 2014 at 6:23:07 AM permalink
Quote: linksjunkie

Good morning all. This is my first thread but I have enjoyed this site for quite some time.

I have a math question I need some assistance with. My lodge has a weekly drawing called the Queen of Hearts. It uses 54 card deck(jokers included). Cards are in envelopes on a bulletin board individually numbered 1-54. People purchase raffle tickets and put the envelope number they wish opened on the ticket.

Each Saturday a ticket is drawn and the numbered envelope is opened. If the card in the envelope is the Queen of hearts the person receives 2/3 of the jackpot if they are present - 1/3 if not present.

Our most recent game has gotten down to the last 2 envelopes without the Queen of hearts being drawn.

Just curious what the probability of this occurring might be. I have got to think it is pretty small. One other note, I know this game is not rigged. I have a hand in setting up the board and the board is kept under lock a key - so no funny stuff going on.

One other local lodge actually went down to the last card in this game, however, there was some question as to the legitimacy of their game.

Any help that could be provided would be greatly appreciates.

FYI - I won a couple of years ago for a cool $7000.

Thanks again.



First week would be 53/54 chance of not getting Qh
Second week would be 52/53
etc.
Last week would be 2/3

You end up with (53*52*51..3*2) / (54*53*52..4*3) Almost everything cancels out except 2 / 54 = 3.7%

Another way to look at it is in reverse order. Suppose you picked 2 cards out of a deck of 54, what are the chances you would have drawn Qh in either case? You would get 1/54 + (53/54) * (1/53) = 2/54
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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September 5th, 2014 at 6:46:30 AM permalink
you can be sure there are suspicious players out there.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
linksjunkie
linksjunkie
Joined: Feb 28, 2014
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September 5th, 2014 at 7:18:42 AM permalink
Thank you for your input. Have a great and hopefully profitable weekend.
Son you ainít paying attention Iím cutting you but you ainít bleeding - Foghorn Leghorn
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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September 5th, 2014 at 11:39:49 PM permalink
Quote: linksjunkie

Good morning all. This is my first thread but I have enjoyed this site for quite some time.

I have a math question I need some assistance with. My lodge has a weekly drawing called the Queen of Hearts. .



Welcome to the board, links! My lodge does the same thing. You're not a Moose in Florida, by any chance?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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September 5th, 2014 at 11:45:35 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Welcome to the board, links! My lodge does the same thing. You're not a Moose in Florida, by any chance?



There are mooses in Florida!?
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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September 5th, 2014 at 11:56:57 PM permalink
Quote: RS

There are mooses in Florida!?



lol...why, yes! Gotta watch for them on the back roads.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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September 6th, 2014 at 4:07:59 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Gotta watch for them on the back roads.



no kidding, they really get tanked up in their lodges [g].

Actually, I'm not sure if that's a joke.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tongni
tongni
Joined: Feb 27, 2013
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September 7th, 2014 at 3:05:36 AM permalink
I bet a skilled cheat can think of ten different ways to manipulate the game even with you watching and being present in the board setup.
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
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September 7th, 2014 at 5:03:01 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Welcome to the board, links! My lodge does the same thing. You're not a Moose in Florida, by any chance?




I've been to the Moose Lodge in Keg Largo, Islemorada and Big Pine Key and they are like small casinos. People are betting on everything.

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