So, who's playing the Mega Millions?

Quote: Mission146

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/mit-students-scammed-massachusetts-state-lottery-8-million-report-article-1.1128482

This is better, State's report, excellent read, 25 pages. I highly recommend reading it!

http://www.mass.gov/ig/publications/reports-and-recommendations/2012/lottery-cash-winfall-letter-july-2012.pdf

Quote: sodawater

I'd be pretty happy laying you 4 to 1 for "doesn't hit" by Dec. 21. (including tonight's drawing)

No way!

I'm talking about it not hitting over the next TWO drawings, not tonight's drawing only!!! You'll have to lay more than that!

I was saying that I think it will hit sometime in the next two drawings. Meaning tonight's or Friday the 20th. You wanted the other side, right? You wanted to bet that it would not hit either of the next two drawings? That's what I was offering 4 to 1 for.

The Mega Millions jackpot has not yet been hit in its current format. Since it increased the odds of a jackpot hit to 258m to 1, it's been rolling over since Oct. 2, 2013.

However, my thinking is they are going to sell at least 500 million tickets between Dec. 14 and Dec. 20, assuming it does not hit tonight. So I would like my chances at 1:4.

Quote: mickeycrimm

How about hittable odds? Bill Nye the Science Guy just dissed the lottery on CNN. You have much better odds of being killed by a vending machine, 1 in 112 million.

Hey you never know:



Although I can't bash Bill Nye, there was that one time he did save Seattle:

Quote: sodawater

I was saying that I think it will hit sometime in the next two drawings. Meaning tonight's or Friday the 20th. You wanted the other side, right? You wanted to bet that it would not hit either of the next two drawings? That's what I was offering 4 to 1 for.

The Mega Millions jackpot has not yet been hit in its current format. Since it increased the odds of a jackpot hit to 258m to 1, it's been rolling over since Oct. 2, 2013.

However, my thinking is they are going to sell at least 500 million tickets between Dec. 14 and Dec. 20, assuming it does not hit tonight. So I would like my chances at 1:4.

My thinking is as follows:

The MegaMillions Jackpot amount went up by $211,000,000, which I'm guessing means that there were approximately 422,000,000 tickets sold for the last drawing. Given that this is the case, and that there will be more sales this time, the odds of no one winning tonight are substantially less than 50%, therefore, taking the 4:1 for two drawings is not a good bet for me. I'd have to believe each drawing has an average 50% chance of winning, and then two consecutive to fail would be 25% to happen.

Unfortunately, we have no bet under your terms because I believe it is more than 50% likely to be won tonight, which makes it substantially more than 50% likely to hit the next drawing, assuming it doesn't hit this one.

Quote: sodawater

Just bought 10,000 fake tickets on the simulator and did not win a single prize over $5. Total winnings for $10,000 spent were $900.

This thing is depressing. Select "max" and "start" and watch how bad the odds are:

http://justwebware.com/megamillions/megamillions.html

You can "check" your numbers going back on the Powerball as well. I checked the numbers I would play and in the recorded history...I would have hit two numbers and that's the most. Poor tax, indeed.

Quote: Soft17

True. I wasn't really calculating anything.

Since the minimum raise on lottery is $5MM per drawing, it will take a while to hit $1Billion.

Also, even with Annuity, it will be $500MM - 25% Fed Tax.

With an average Interest loan rate of 5%/Year on the $280MM loan, the interest will cost more then the winning LOL.

25% federal tax? anything over $450k ($400k if single) will be taxed at 39.6%, just like ordinary income. On a $500MM win, each year's distribution would be $20MM. So, 95% of each year's distribution would be taxed at the 39.6% rate.

Quote: Mission146

My thinking is as follows:

The MegaMillions Jackpot amount went up by $211,000,000, which I'm guessing means that there were approximately 422,000,000 tickets sold for the last drawing. Given that this is the case, and that there will be more sales this time, the odds of no one winning tonight are substantially less than 50%, therefore, taking the 4:1 for two drawings is not a good bet for me. I'd have to believe each drawing has an average 50% chance of winning, and then two consecutive to fail would be 25% to happen.

Unfortunately, we have no bet under your terms because I believe it is more than 50% likely to be won tonight, which makes it substantially more than 50% likely to hit the next drawing, assuming it doesn't hit this one.

Yeah... I understand your thinking. I agree that if it doesn't hit tonight, the next drawing is going to be well over 50%.

By the way, just for the sake of correctness, if you thought it would have a 50% chance of winning each drawing, a fair price would be 3 to 1 that it wouldn't hit either one. If you had a 25% shot at 4 to 1 you'd have a huge edge.

Quote: sodawater

Yeah... I understand your thinking. I agree that if it doesn't hit tonight, the next drawing is going to be well over 50%.

By the way, just for the sake of correctness, if you thought it would have a 50% chance of winning each drawing, a fair price would be 3 to 1 that it wouldn't hit either one. If you had a 25% shot at 4 to 1 you'd have a huge edge.

I know. ;)

You AP players will love these numbers for sure.

http://www.businessinsider.com/you-should-buy-a-mega-million-ticket-2013-12