outofaces
outofaces
Joined: Sep 7, 2013
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September 14th, 2013 at 11:53:25 AM permalink
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vegas
vegas 
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
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September 14th, 2013 at 12:00:02 PM permalink
Fiesta Henderson has many full play
10-6 DDB

10-7-5 DB

and more
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 14th, 2013 at 12:00:39 PM permalink
Quote: outofaces



So my question is, what else am I missing in Henderson casinos that is +EV? Not gonna card count that's way above my ability and
stress level. I feel like there's some great plays only some know about and they are still eluding me. +EV SLOTS I WILL FIND YOU!



Do a Forum search for the WMS machines, a search for, "Wongable slots," should give you that thread. Wizard also weighed in on that, bujt I don't know if it was that thread or a different one. You can also do a search for, "Quick Hits Platinum," which is a game for which the (minimum) possible base pays and Progressive probabilities are known. Finally, since you don't seem to mind waiting for the results of your slight advantage to present themselves, as a VP player, perhaps you can see if you can find any advantageous Progressive Video Keno situations on an unlinked machine.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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September 14th, 2013 at 12:15:29 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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September 14th, 2013 at 12:15:52 PM permalink
Club Fortune has a blackjack promotion called broken pairs. It is NOT a side bet. If you get a pair of tens, jacks, queens or kings and lose your bet, to a dealer bj or drawn 21, you are paid $25. It doesn't matter what amount your bet is, the payoff is $25. So, while I haven't done the math, playing table minimum of $3, until you collect the $25 bonus, has to get you +EV or close to it. Unfortunately, you can only receive that broken pairs bonus once per calander week, so as soon as you hit it, you would be done for the week.

And if you are at CF anyway, you should pay some VP. While not +EV, CF has what I believe to be one of the best mailers for small amounts of VP play, which will make a limited amount of play +EV. :-)
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 14th, 2013 at 12:36:12 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Club Fortune has a blackjack promotion called broken pairs. It is NOT a side bet. If you get a paid of tens, jacks, queens or kings and lose your bet, to a dealer bj or drawn 21, you are paid $25. It doesn't matter what amount your bet is, the payoff is $25. So, while I haven't done the math, playing table minimum of $3, until you collect the $25 bonus, has to get you +EV or close to it. Unfortunately, you can only receive that broken pairs bonus once per calander week, so as soon as you hit it, you would be done for the week.



This is actually a pretty easy one, just using a fresh deck straight off the top, but the concept remains the same for multiple decks and can be calculated. Multiple decks should have a greater probability because the removal of each such card won't have as much of an effect on the probability.

Hell with it, let's do it for one deck and six decks:

One deck is easy, player needs any ten (16/52) and then he needs a match card (3/51), the dealer needs any other ten (14/50) and an Ace (4/49)

(16/52 * 3/51) * (14/50 * 4/49) = 0.00041370394311570784 * 25 = 0.010342598577892695

The expected value is only slightly better than a penny, per hand played. In this case, the Expected Loss of a $3.00 bet would have to be less than this amount in order for it to be positive EV. The Expected loss of a $3 bet, would need to be a House Edge:

3 * x = .010342598577892695

x = 0.003447532859297565

Thus, the House Edge on the Base Game would have to be 0.34475%, or less, for this to be an advantageous play.

Six decks should fare slightly better:

(96/312 * 23/311) * (94/310 * 24/309) = 0.0005359237554262241 * 25 = 0.013398093885655602 About 1.34 pennies added EV

3 * x = 0.013398093885655602

x = 0.004466031295218534

Base HE of 0.4466%, or less.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
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September 14th, 2013 at 12:46:03 PM permalink
Please tell me weren't serious on the popcorn.
miplet
miplet 
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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September 14th, 2013 at 1:33:50 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

This is actually a pretty easy one, just using a fresh deck straight off the top, but the concept remains the same for multiple decks and can be calculated. Multiple decks should have a greater probability because the removal of each such card won't have as much of an effect on the probability.

Hell with it, let's do it for one deck and six decks:

One deck is easy, player needs any ten (16/52) and then he needs a match card (3/51), the dealer needs any other ten (14/50) and an Ace (4/49)

(16/52 * 3/51) * (14/50 * 4/49) = 0.00041370394311570784 * 25 = 0.010342598577892695


You are missing a *2 because the dealer can have an ace or 10 up. You are also missing drawn 21's. You can use qfit calculator for those.

Ackk it's late. Going to bed now.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 14th, 2013 at 1:55:24 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

You are missing a *2 because the dealer can have an ace or 10 up. You are also missing drawn 21's. You can use qfit calculator for those.

Ackk it's late. Going to bed now.



I definitely completely missed it about the drawn 21's, I actually didn't notice that in the post. The *2 was just a bad mistake on my part, which I attribute 50% to the fact that I was rushing while getting ready for work and 50% to the fact that I'm an idiot.

I might try again later. I guess I should base it on the dealer's hand first, even though the player is the first to act, to determine the average number of tens to be removed. That could be tough. Obviously, a Ten showing removes one ten and an Ace showing will usually remove a ten. A seven, eight or nine showing cannot remove a ten...

I could probably simplify it just by looking at the probability of a BJ, drawn or dealt, and assume a ten is removed except in those cases where it is impossible based on the up card. It will make the pay seem slightly less likely than it actually is, because I'll remove more tens than are actually removed, but, oh well.
Vultures can't be choosers.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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September 14th, 2013 at 2:22:54 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Club Fortune has a blackjack promotion called broken pairs.

And every week that you win that special promotion, you will still come back and play with your friends and spend that 25.00 on a gas mask.

Sometimes I think the best opportunities are the ones at the very local casinos... they have no glitter or glamor, they have to offer some sort of enticement. So go to their websites and see what is being offered.

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