Revel promotion sounds too good to be true
Quote: whatme500 spins is easier then you think, wen it comes to job you will hear 700-800 spins p/hr. The more you think the fewer hands p/hr
so 500 for ddb is realistic.
DDB strategy isn't too much harder than JoB either, people who have it down good and have a good speed setting and frequently skip the counting of wins should be able to pull off 800/hands hr or more I'd think.
Not if good solid information is available.Quote: randompersonSo you never act in situations with imperfect information? You never form beliefs about things that you can never know for sure?
So you DO act on imperfect information. And lo and behold, you are 180 degrees wrong.Quote: randompersonMy bet is you do it every day.
Quote: teliotFor those who may still be interested (including Revel), using the formula above, playing $5 DDB 9/6 ($25 bet per hand), the formula above gives:
Optimal win goal = $49,000 (1960 units).
Probability of success = 35.27%.
Expected win = $17,280 (691 units).
Expected time = 186241 spins.
At a rate of 500 spins per hour, this will take 372 hours. This amounts to a theoretical loss of $46.40 per hour per $25 machine for Revel. The per day/per machine cost to Revel is $1,113. Multiply this by the number of days and number of machines (run a similar analysis for the other VP), and an upper bound on Revel's promotional cost can be approximated for all their $25 video poker.
For those who don't have 372 extra hours:
With a lesser win goal of $7,500 (300 units).
Probability of success = 84.62%.
Expected win = $6,346 (257 units).
Expected time = 35471 spins.
Thanks for the numbers but...I already noted in a previous post that the $5 VP machines that remain don't have DDB. They have JoB at 8/5, plus some other games for which I didn't check the pay tables.
Quote: SanchoPanzaNot if good solid information is available.
So you DO act on imperfect information. And lo and behold, you are 180 degrees wrong.
We all do, if you don't think you do, you don't get it. Read some of the links earlier about Bayesian reasoning.
Quote: kvitlekhThanks for the numbers but...I already noted in a previous post that the $5 VP machines that remain don't have DDB. They have JoB at 8/5, plus some other games for which I didn't check the pay tables.
Quote: randompersonQuote: SanchoPanzaNot if good solid information is available.
So you DO act on imperfect information. And lo and behold, you are 180 degrees wrong.
We all do, if you don't think you do, you don't get it. Read some of the links earlier about Bayesian reasoning.
The problem is you have no way of calculating the effect. Its one thing to make inference based on what we know even if that information is incomplete. One however cannot make such an inference without any data. For ease say this promo is worth 1 million dollars, if we know there is a 20% chance the machines will be removed with no outside influence and the Wizard reaches 20% of the total number of forum goers we can with some certainty say that he cost the AP community 160,000 since it was removed the effect he had is .8*.2*1000000. Say there was a 50% chance they would remove his affect then is .5*.2*1000000 or 100000. But since you don't even know the chance they would be removed all you can say is he had some non-zero affect on the AP community. Though me saying the word alien now has some non-zero probablistic effect on aliens showing up tomorrow, if aliens were to show up tomorrow and wipe out 90% of the population it would still be foolish to say I caused them too or doomed the human race and led to untold deaths. Also there are other ways to attack this promo, if you can't figure out how to use a 100% loss rebate on anything but 25 dollar video poker maybe a APing isn't for you.
Here are the numbers for 8/5 JOB:Quote: kvitlekhThanks for the numbers but...I already noted in a previous post that the $5 VP machines that remain don't have DDB. They have JoB at 8/5, plus some other games for which I didn't check the pay tables.
Optimal win goal = $8950 (358 units).
Probability of success = 36.74%.
Expected win = $3,289 (131.6 units).
Expected time = 88775 spins.
On an hourly basis (500 spins per hour) playing for the optimal win goal, the expected time is 178 hours, so the win rate is about $18.50 per hour.
Quote: teliotHere are the numbers for 8/5 JOB:
Optimal win goal = $8950 (358 units).
Probability of success = 36.74%.
Expected win = $3,289 (131.6 units).
Expected time = 88775 spins.
On an hourly basis playing for the optimal win goal, the expected time is 178 hours, so the win rate is about $18.50 per hour.
Yep, got these numbers too. But if we are having to also play the freeplay through on 8/5 JoB, that makes the cost of the freeplay a significant cost to the expected win.
Expected cost of having to play freeplay on crappy 8/5 JoB:
(1 - 0.3674)*(0.027016)*($100,000) = $1709
Quote: teliotHere are the numbers for 8/5 JOB:
Optimal win goal = $8950 (358 units).
Probability of success = 36.74%.
Expected win = $3,289 (131.6 units).
Expected time = 88775 spins.
On an hourly basis (500 spins per hour) playing for the optimal win goal, the expected time is 178 hours, so the win rate is about $18.50 per hour.
The number of hours is higher, you gotta add in the possibility of coming back for 20 weeks. Travel time included. And Travel expenses as well.
Quote: FroggerThe number of hours is higher, you gotta add in the possibility of coming back for 20 weeks. Travel time included. And Travel expenses as well.
Yeah, not really worth it for 8/5 JoB it looks like.
Quote: randomperson[
So you never act in situations with imperfect information? You never form beliefs about things that you can never know for sure? My bet is you do it every day.
Man, I'm posting a ton this morning!
I agree that one cannot live pragmatically without making predictions about the future with imperfect information. However, when discussing an event that has occurred, trying to attribute the weight of causes to the event is pointless unless we are aware of every possibility. Even that rule has exceptions, particularly legally, but generally speaking, the causes of a thing that has happened and cannot be changed are irrelevant to me.
Something negative has happened, it will not be reversed, you move on with whatever is left.
play among the 9-6 $5 slot machines,
let me know what life is like on Jupiter and Mars...
breaking news, flight plan changed,
will be landing on Revel beach, planet earth with $1 5-8 slot machines...
beware of debris on the beach from Hurricane Sandy...
field report:
8 am July 1st
lay of the land
about half of the video poker machines have been shut down...
woke up from my hotel room and saw platoon of slot attendants overshoot their
drop zones and land in the ocean.
Expecting to meet them on Revel Beach I quickly put on my khakis and set out.
7am too late.
Half of the video poker slot machines have been shut down.
Each slot machine was placed out of service using a stick of dynamite and grenades to set off the charges.
Sign on the machines state: 'out of service'
(...despite many assurances to the contrary, about a dozen idle greeters were there to state my slot vouchers were no good
until the day they may be used at some other AC casino.)
Quote: dipce
(...despite many assurances to the contrary, about a dozen idle greeters were there to state my slot vouchers were no good
until the day they may be used at some other AC casino.)
Who told you that, someone there?
I would bitch up, down, left, right and diagonally (if you can identify the person(s)) until they gave you the Free Play. I have no idea who would have been stupid enough to tell you that, but such has NEVER been the case in any similar situation, as far as I know. It's always an exact match, in those cases, dates and everything, otherwise I'd have had a crapload FP that time at Horseshoe Cleveland because they'd have had to double ALL of my Scioto Downs offers for the entire month!
I have been going in every day for the past 2 weeks to find out how
the promotion worked and was told consistently to bring in my slot vouchers
on July 1st so they could be loaded.
When I went in today,
I was told that was wrong,
that if I had a slot voucher for $100
good at the 'Taj Mahal Casino, Hotel, Spa, closed simulcast and broken down pool',
on July 4,
I could only bring it in only on July 4th.
As a result, about a dozen greeters were idle doing nothing but watching their nail polish dry.
I expect on July Fourth, the lines will be so long, you will be best off parking your car at Tropicana to
wait on your place in line on the boardwalk...
Quote: rdw4potusI think the point is that if the free play vouchers can all be presented at once, then the player only has to wait in the line once. So, if I show up on 7/1 with vouchers for 7/3, 7/5, 7/14, and 7/29, the hope would be that Revel's slot club employees could load all 4 offers then so that they're ready to go on the applicable days. That would save me from waiting in line 3 additional times, even if I did have to visit on those other days in order to use the play on the correctly matched days.
I don't know if their back office software from IGT has the ability to load future Free Plays or those people @ Revel are just idiots or they are just over cautious. If they loaded all offers at once, they are risking the abuse by third party playing on your card - they don't have the ability to verify your identity.
Quote: dipcecorrect, and also this would save hundreds of hours of employee time (they were all idle today at 8am, doing nothing!) and it will save the torture of hundreds of people waiting in lines on July 3 and 4, among other days.
Well they may want to make sure that ligitimate people claim the matching FP -not their proxies.
Abuse of FP by proxies is the oldest trick in the book.
If this behavior was done in the retail world it would be called the 'classic' bait and switch, which is illegal. (yet still done).
Quote: BhappyWell they may want to make sure that ligitimate people claim the matching FP -not their proxies.
Abuse of FP by proxies is the oldest trick in the book.
That is a wonderful topic.
Quote: dipcecorrect, and also this would save hundreds of hours of employee time (they were all idle today at 8am, doing nothing!) and it will save the torture of hundreds of people waiting in lines on July 3 and 4, among other days. I was given a smorgasbord of unbelievable replies including that their software would not allow it and the DGE would not allow it. My point is I was mislead, they could save me a lot of time in lines every day, and not create huge lines of customers on 7/4. If the line is too long the guests may simply go play their vouchers at Borgata, and stay @ Borgata on their 6/9 machines! (Borgata is offering 10X Slot Dollars today) It defeats the purpose of the promotion if the customers have to wait in long lines every day to redeem their slot dollars...
I agree. Revel isn't helping themselves at all by making it difficult to utilize this matching promotion. The whole point is to draw in people who thought Revel was an incompetently run casino that is unfriendly to players. By bungling the rules and being rude to players during the implementation of the promo, they're just reinforcing the negative image of the property.
And if the reports about the changes and chaos on the floor regarding the loss-rebate promotion are correct, well, that's just horrible. They seem to want a very specific type of player. Their target would appear to be people who feed hundreds of thousands of dollars into slots with no regard for the outcome or odds of success. We've determined that small players are a nuisance for Revel and the casino shouldn't be expected to try to win their play. And we've determined that they don't want to mess with people who actually know how to maximize the value of the promotion. And that leaves...nobody. Or, certainly, not nearly enough people to save the property from failure.
Quote: BhappyI don't know if their back office software from IGT has the ability to load future Free Plays or those people @ Revel are just idiots or they are just over cautious. If they loaded all offers at once, they are risking the abuse by third party playing on your card - they don't have the ability to verify your identity.
I suppose there is that risk. But the risk of abuse isn't unique to Revel, but their unfriendly solution to the problem is unique and makes them stand out in a negative way. This risk is also borne by all of the other successfully operating casinos who issue the offers in the first place.
Quote: Bhappyso dipice and rdw4potus: What controls they should install to prevent abuse of FP?
Why should they do something that nobody else does? Borgata succeeds without this step. So does the Trop, so does Caesars, so does Harrah's...
Some people will abuse the system. It's a risk that all casinos take.
Revel really has to suck it up and treat players as well as everyone else, or they'll never succeed. "Gamblers Wanted" is a neat slogan. It'd be nice if that sentiment was borne out by the actions of Revel's on-site staff.
Quote: rdw4potus
And if the reports about the changes and chaos on the floor regarding the loss-rebate promotion are correct, well, that's just horrible. They seem to want a very specific type of player. Their target would appear to be people who feed hundreds of thousands of dollars into slots with no regard for the outcome or odds of success. We've determined that small players are a nuisance for Revel and the casino shouldn't be expected to try to win their play. And we've determined that they don't want to mess with people who actually know how to maximize the value of the promotion. And that leaves...nobody. Or, certainly, not nearly enough people to save the property from failure.
Greetings!
My last phone call to Revel made me much happier than today's.
I just got off the phone with Revel having spoken mostly to Evena (sp?) who was the first individual to answer the phone.
1.) Evena verifies and specifically states that the $25/denom machines were removed from the floor and the other applicable machines were placed out of service due specifically to this promotion.
2.) Evena does not know the reason why these machines were excluded, or if such were the plan the entire time. She suggests that I can send an E-Mail and pose the same question. I will send the E-Mail, and we'll see if any smoke gets blown up my ass.
3.) Evena could not connect me to a Slots Director, specifically stating they were on the floor, so I can't talk to them. I did manage to get connected to a host, but that brief conversation was uneventful.*
Both Evena and the host, Kaia, have adequate customer service skills...though Evena was significantly better.
4.) The $25 VP Denominations will be returned to the floor in August, all deactivated VP machines will be placed back in service. Free Play can be used on those machines once they are put back in service.
5.) The Maximum loss rebate on this promotion will remain at $100,000.
6.) All monies won off of the Free Play Match will be construed as winnings for the month of July, thus, will count against the $100 minimum lost for the most on the rebate promotion.
7.) Slots in any available denomination can still be played with the loss rebate. Do I trust Revel? No. However, I was told this will not change, which is not to be construed as any kind of guarantee on my part.
Free Play Match Specifics
8.) The Free Play match offer will consist of ONE mailer and any coupons thereof derived.
9.) The maximum amount of match, per day, is $500. However, if the player has offers that are spread out such that the total is greater than $500, then those offers will still be matched up to $500 per each applicable offer.
10.) The player MUST bring the physical offer with them every time. If the offer takes the form of coupons, the coupon will be submitted and retained by Revel. If the coupon takes the form of a single postcard, then each offer used will be crossed out with permanent marker and the mailer returned to the player.
Kaia
I was transferred to a host named Kaia and posed the same questions about what caused the VP decision, or if that was always the plan. She freely stated that the promotion was, "Thrown together," quickly, so nobody really knows anything about those kind of specifics. She also could not transfer me to a Slots Supervisor.
Go play there....It is their casino, their rules, and their money. Don't like it ignore the Free Money offer, and never set foot in their place.
I spoke to a supervisor this morning at about 8 am who assured me the free play match winnings will not count against the $100 lost.
oh, and did I mention they gave me the 'rules and regulations'?
about half way down page one it saids:
"...Promotional free slot play will not be included in the calculation to determine actual loss..."
Quote: Bhappy"Why should they do something that nobody else does? Borgata succeeds without this step. So does the Trop, so does Caesars, so does Harrah's..."
Go play there....It is their casino, their rules, and their money. Don't like it ignore the Free Money offer, and never set foot in their place.
LOL! Oh, I will. Me and everyone else in town, just like it's been for the past 18 months:-)
Quote: dipce6.) All monies won off of the Free Play Match will be construed as winnings for the month of July, thus, will count against the $100 minimum lost for the most on the rebate promotion.
I spoke to a supervisor this morning at about 8 am who assured me the free play match winnings will not count against the $100 lost.
I'm just giving you what I was given, my friend.
I gave the location, names, look at the timestamp on my post and subtract about twenty minutes and you have when I hung up with them. That's all I can do.
By the way, were you not also told your July offers could be pre-loaded onto your card if you brought them in today?
Out of two events, the worst one is Free Play winnings go against the rebate, so based on all other evidence available to me, that's the one I am inclined to believe.
Quote: rdw4potusLOL! Oh, I will. Me and everyone else in town, just like it's been for the past 18 months:-)
Don't do that, at least run that FP through and leave, but don't sacrifice the value of that FP.
Quote: dipce
oh, and did I mention they gave me the 'rules and regulations'?
about half way down page one it saids:
"...Promotional free slot play will not be included in the calculation to determine actual loss..."
If it's in writing, you're good, then.
Apparently, Evena had that one wrong. I should have double-checked it with Kaia, although, Evena may have simply misunderstood my question. I had to rephrase a couple of things for her, because she'd often answer a question completely unrelated to the one I asked.
"...must have minimum actual loss of $100..."
how do you interpret this mumbo jumbo?
Quote: dipce"...Actual loss is defined as: coin in minus coin out minus promotional free slot play to receive the true value of customer loss. Promotional free slot play will not be included in the calculation to determine actual loss..."
"...must have minimum actual loss of $100..."
how do you interpret this mumbo jumbo?
In that case, what you contested to me is inaccurate, and what Evena stated was equally inaccurate.
Basically, your Free Play winnings do not count against your Actual Loss, but the Free Play itself does. Based on theoretical value, this is actually worse than having the winnings count against you, unless you find an advantageous progressive, in which case it is better. Based on the actual return of the FP, it could go either way, of course.
That's if I understand the wording correctly.
They miscalculated on several levels, but I believe the biggest miscalculation was demand. With Gambling venues in nearly every neighboring state that were not in place a decade early, there just was not demand for another casino in AC. If anything most of us have been expecting one of the existing ones to close.
So they built it. Revel management did absolutely no marketing. They thought they were above that. No mail marketing. No promotions for signing up for a new card. No showing an existing card from a competing property and immediately being elevated to that same level at Revel. They offered nothing. Just assumed that being the new place, people would come.
Now people do come.....once. They come to look around. Maybe spend a few bucks, but you have to offer something for them to return. You have to give them a reason for them to abandon their current favorite place that they are comfortable with. Revel did not do so. This is where they failed to follow Borgata's model.
When Borgata Opened, they aggressively marketed to the surrounding areas. I know because I lived in Philly at the time. So people went to check out the 'new casino'. And what they found where reasons to keep coming back. Take blackjack. Borgata offered 6 deck games at the time when every other casino in AC was offering 8 decks. They had better rules with dealer stand soft 17 on all games, even low limit, when every other casino in AC had switched to Dealer hit 17, on all but high limit games. You could split hands up to 4 times when every other casino in AC would only let you split to 3. And they had plenty of tables, so you could easily find a spot to play, even at the $10 tables.
Now I wasn't playing video poker at the time, as I now do, when it is +EV, but I would be willing to bet that Borgata did similar with their video poker and slots as well. Offered better returns than other properties in AC at that time.
And the result was Borgata went right to the top in AC revenue and has stayed there month after month. Now contrast that with Revel, who from the moment they opened, with no marketing, no promotions, offering no decent gambling has ranked near the bottom of AC revenue every single month that they have been open. At 130,000 square feet of gambling, they don't come close to competing with the other large AC casinos. Instead, their numbers have consistently been in the range of the smaller AC casino's about half their size.
So now, a year later, they come up with a promotion to attract new business and it looks like their management has royally screwed this up as well. By the time it is over they will have alienated and driven away even more customers.
I don't know if anything can save them at this point, but if there is any possibility it would have to be a MAJOR management shake up. I mean right to the top, getting rid of scores of folks and bringing in top management and marketing people in the feild who have a track record of success in the industry. And frankly, those type people don't readily become available.
(1) the promotional free slot play is not included
(in any way)
in the calculation to determine actual loss as long as you are playing the free slot money, but
(2) if you play the free slot money after it has been all turned into cash, then it counts.
so what I understood is the following:
play the free slot play and cash it out as soon as it is all played and may be cashed out
and it does not count towards the actual loss.
but if you play it after it has all been turned into cash and hit
a royal and get paid $1,000 and then cash out, the $1,000 will count against your losses.
Quote: rdw4potusLOL! Oh, I will. Me and everyone else in town, just like it's been for the past 18 months:-)
I doubt that. You will be in line to get your free money.
Quote: BhappyI doubt that. You will be in line to get your free money.
Maybe. It'd be a losing proposition to leave the better offers available at Borgata, Harrah's, and GN. But I might do it just to suck a little bit of cash out of Revel in the hopes that they'll fail faster and be replaced by an actual competently run outfit.
Quote: rdw4potusMaybe. It'd be a losing proposition to leave the better offers available at Borgata, Harrah's, and GN. But I might do it just to suck a little bit of cash out of Revel in the hopes that they'll fail faster and be replaced by an actual competently run outfit.
In twenty minutes you changed your mind.
Quote: BhappyIn twenty minutes you changed your mind.
Yes. At your suggestion, I've decided to take as much money from Revel as possible. That way, they'll fail faster. That's what you wanted, right?
Quote: rdw4potusYes. At your suggestion, I've decided to take as much money from Revel as possible. That way, they'll fail faster. That's what you wanted, right?
Get a room, bring in a few space heaters and run them. Then turn the A/C on at full. You'll use up tons and tons of electricity :P
Quote: NareedGet a room, bring in a few space heaters and run them. Then turn the A/C on at full. You'll use up tons and tons of electricity :P
Oh, my! Are you aware that I am an electricity salesperson? I should sign them to a contract with my company first! :-)
Quote: NareedGet a room, bring in a few space heaters and run them. Then turn the A/C on at full. You'll use up tons and tons of electricity :P
No, you would just trip a breaker because the hotels have circuits that tell them when you're using high amperages.
Quote: rdw4potusOh, my! Are you aware that I am an electricity salesperson? I should sign them to a contract with my company first! :-)
I did not know that. What a happy coincidence! :)
this is what I was told, I have it in writing, and it is the only logical rule.
Consider the guy that gets free vouchers worth $5,000.
If he has to lose over $5,100 before his losses are paid, he won't play his own money.
It only makes sense that free slot play is not included in the calculation to determine actual loss.
Q.E.D. lol
