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Bhappy
Bhappy
Joined: Aug 24, 2012
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June 30th, 2013 at 11:02:09 AM permalink
Quote: randomperson



So you never act in situations with imperfect information? You never form beliefs about things that you can never know for sure? My bet is you do it every day.



I don't know about Mission, but you are asking two different things. Yes I do act in situations with imperfect information. That is called educated guess, or hunch or whatever - that is logical. No I never form beliefs about things I am not sure of (except religion, and God). It is not logical.
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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June 30th, 2013 at 11:02:50 AM permalink
Quote: 21forme

Kewl, if it makes you feel any better, I know several individuals and groups who lost money at the MS promo.



A team at my table was down $50K before noon. Then it really got ugly.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
lucky13
lucky13
Joined: Nov 1, 2009
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June 30th, 2013 at 11:10:45 AM permalink
kewlj: "I seemed to be that 1 in a hundred person who didn't make money. lol"

You weren't alone. I specifically flew home from a business trip in order to take advantage of the triple down at Mohegan, had about 10 hours spreading $50 to three hands of $150 (if I remember correctly, there was a $500 cap on tripling down) and lost just under $10k. Had the opportunity to meet several WOVers, including Ben who did not get backed off, but wonged around my pit.

I seem to remember there was consternation about not discussing the details the +EV opportunity, but there were plenty of spots at plenty of tables.

Wish they would bring it back.
randomperson
randomperson
Joined: Dec 21, 2012
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June 30th, 2013 at 12:05:57 PM permalink
Quote: Bhappy

I don't know about Mission, but you are asking two different things. Yes I do act in situations with imperfect information. That is called educated guess, or hunch or whatever - that is logical. No I never form beliefs about things I am not sure of (except religion, and God). It is not logical.



Belief in the Bayesian sense, like for example: there is a probability x this person is lying.
randomperson
randomperson
Joined: Dec 21, 2012
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June 30th, 2013 at 12:07:27 PM permalink
Quote: Bhappy

why are you here in an open forum? You do seem take advantage of open forums. I have seen your screen name (& I am assuming it was you) in one of the other forums where you did ask for information. So if you are in a information gathering mode (trivial or non trivial) from open forums, you can not dictate what information others should ask, and what others should provide, and what the site owner should do.



I'm here to try to convince some people they shouldn't cost other people money. No morality, just selfishness. There are ways to communicate details in private and get the information out there without ruining the play.
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 30th, 2013 at 1:24:49 PM permalink
Sigh.

Using the formula below on $25 ($125 per spin) DDB, with a loss limit of $100k (800 units), then the optimal stopping point is a win of 1343 units, which gives an expected win of 349.5 units ($43687).

This was very quick and easy. It's not as accurate as simulation because the distribution is defined only by its first two moments. But, it was certainly a lot easier than the massive simulations I ran.


The probability of hitting the upper limit b before the bottom limit 0 starting at x, 0 < x < b:

p = [exp(-2xμ/ σ^2) - 1] / [exp(-2bμ/ σ^2) - 1]

x = 800 (units)
μ = -0.010192
σ^2 =42.366

b = unknown upper stopping point

Expected win = p*(b - 800)


The average completion time can also be computed using a very easy formula. For the situation above, the formula gives 23730 spins.

[Edit. 07/01/2013 -- it looks like I got the variance wrong in this -- it should be 41.984981. In this case I show a win exit point of $165750 (1326 units), an expected win of $43,531 (348 units), and 23709 spins].
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 30th, 2013 at 2:56:12 PM permalink
For those who may still be interested (including Revel), using the formula above, playing $5 DDB 9/6 ($25 bet per hand), the formula above gives:

Optimal win goal = $49,000 (1960 units).
Probability of success = 35.27%.
Expected win = $17,280 (691 units).
Expected time = 186241 spins.

At a rate of 500 spins per hour, this will take 372 hours. This amounts to a theoretical loss of $46.40 per hour per $25 machine for Revel. The per day/per machine cost to Revel is $1,113. Multiply this by the number of days and number of machines (run a similar analysis for the other VP), and an upper bound on Revel's promotional cost can be approximated for all their $25 video poker.

For those who don't have 372 extra hours:

With a lesser win goal of $7,500 (300 units).
Probability of success = 84.62%.
Expected win = $6,346 (257 units).
Expected time = 35471 spins.
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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June 30th, 2013 at 3:30:14 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

For those who may still be interested (including Revel), using the formula above, playing $5 DDB 9/6 ($25 bet per hand), the formula above gives:

Optimal win goal = $49,000 (1960 units).
Probability of success = 35.27%.
Expected win = $17,280 (691 units).
Expected time = 186241 spins.

At a rate of 500 spins per hour, this will take 372 hours. This amounts to a theoretical loss of $46.40 per hour per $25 machine for Revel. The per day/per machine cost to Revel is $1,113. Multiply this by the number of days and number of machines (run a similar analysis for the other VP), and an upper bound on Revel's promotional cost can be approximated for all their $25 video poker.

For those who don't have 372 extra hours:

With a lesser win goal of $7,500 (300 units).
Probability of success = 84.62%.
Expected win = $6,346 (257 units).
Expected time = 35471 spins.

LoL
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Bhappy
Bhappy
Joined: Aug 24, 2012
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June 30th, 2013 at 3:33:25 PM permalink
is 500 spins/hr a realistic spin rate? That is about 7 sec/spin. You may get that in first few hrs, but then fatigue sets in.
whatme
whatme
Joined: Apr 28, 2011
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June 30th, 2013 at 3:46:42 PM permalink
Quote: Bhappy

is 500 spins/hr a realistic spin rate? That is about 7 sec/spin. You may get that in first few hrs, but then fatigue sets in.

500 spins is easier then you think, wen it comes to job you will hear 700-800 spins p/hr. The more you think the fewer hands p/hr
so 500 for ddb is realistic.

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