Atlantic City Jan Results

http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/PressRel2013/January2013pressrelease.pdf

http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/MGR2013/201301revenue.pdf

First link is the overall numbers and the 2nd breaks down each casino and the drop per table game and per slot denomination.

Overall another bad month with Revel only ahead of Trump Plaza, who has one door locked already.

All 4 of the Caesars Properties are showing huge declines.

Borgata is still holding their own with massive volume numbers.

The low roller approach by The Atlantic Club seems to be working, but they still say they need the Pokerstars sale to go through to stay open. What does that tell you about Revel, when this old property that has spent next to nothing cannot make it on more gaming revenue than Revel.

Those trump plaza numbers are just sad. what a location, probably the best in the city. is there any hope for that property under new owners?

one heartening thing about revel's numbers is that unlike every other property in the city, its table games are closing in and nearly equal to its slot revenue. that would be a welcome change to the mix and fitting in with revel's upscale strategy.

I've not followed the AC market to any appreciable degree with exception to what has been posted on here, so let's say that Trump Plaza and/or The Atlantic Club close outright, how do those $$$ get re-distributed amongst the other casinos, would you guys guess?

Well Atlantic Club was just sold to a thriving company which is looking to make considerable further investments in the property, so I think it's safe. But if the Plaza or any other properties close, I would foresee the Borgata just eating up more market share. Maybe Caesars as one of the few Boardwalk properties that does good volume might get a boost. But mainly the Borgata and Harrah's because the marina is the only section of AC that is really doing well.

Atlantic Club has not sold yet. Rational Group may not even be able to get a license. If the market is in any other condition there is no way they license Rational but I guess the current situation will help them look the other way. Steve Wynn and MGM are run out of NJ but not a company that was accused of 5 years of illegal gambling.

Don't get me wrong, I think PokerStars is a top notch company. I just don't think they would have been able to get a license just a few years ago. The thought would have been absurd. Now people are just assuming they will.

I agree with you, pokeraddict. But it's not 2007 anymore. Pokerstars is now a godsend to AC and its license is a foregone conclusion.

As someone who stays and plays (except VP, their VP is atrocious) at Trump, I would stay and play anywhere else that gives me a free weekend room and $5 craps.

Quote: sodawater

I agree with you, pokeraddict. But it's not 2007 anymore. Pokerstars is now a godsend to AC and its license is a foregone conclusion.

Yeah given the current market conditions I don't see how NJ could deny a license to anybody who actually wants to invest money in AC.

To answer Missions question, if the Trump Plaza closed, which seems like a real possibility, I think 2 things would happen. One, I'm sure the Taj Mahal would pick up some of their players as they would honor the points etc. of the Trump One Card. At least I assume they would. Two, the rest of the action would probably get spread out pretty evenly among the other casinos. Maybe Caesars and the Trop. would pickup more as they are the closest geographically speaking. But the whole Boardwalk from the Atl. Club to Revel is only a little over 2 miles. So people could go anywhere they like really.

One of Trump plaza's biggest mistakes is keeping low limit tables open on weekends and evenings. You can get $1 and $5 BJ tables as well as Craps, so needless to say the clientel isn't the most affluent. Yea, they'll get more low buy-ins and "rollers" with money clips full of 20s instead of C-notes. But ultimately, they'll go elsewhere to avoid the derelicts trying to turn their $14 into a couple of hundred dollar bills.

The atmosphere is dreary and depressing. Bus service is sparce and has hardly any activity in the bus lobby. Drink service is SLOW and not very good.

Half the restaraunts are closed and nearly all the eateries do 2 for 1 Comps, which limit the amount of reg. players going to eat and going BACK to the table!

That's actually the reason I asked, following what BWB and Vendman1 said, it seems that The Revel would be one of the least likely beneficiaries of the Trump Plaza closing, as that is not at all their clientele. Perhaps they would pick up a little bit of slot action, but I should imagine that'd be about it, no additional tables action to speak of.

So I am a total nerd and created a spreadsheet of the all the casinos and charted their drop/handle and % wins for the three games I care about: blackjack, craps, and roulette.

I wanted to see if there was any correlation between the percent a casino won versus the volume of bets they took. Granted this only based off of one month and quite possibly other factors that would play in to any correlation but I still find it interesting to look at. Just don't take them as scientific fact.

First off its amazing how much Borgata and to a lesser extent Caesars dominate the Blackjack bets. Those two combined account for 46.89% of the blackjack bets taken in January (assuming all the numbers are handle and not drop. Not sure why they don't specify). They also claim a big chunk of craps and roulette.

When sorting the blackjack win percentage, i did see something interesting. The two highest and smallest revenue casinos (Borgata and Caesars, Trump Plaza and Atlantic Club respectively) posted the smallest win percentages. Are high rollers and risk adverse players more likely to play blackjack correctly? The mid tier casinos seem to dominate the highest win percentages. Caesars was the lowest with 5.4%, Tropicana was the highest at 21.6% (Interesting that Tropicana made twice as much money off blackjack than Caesars even though it took in only half as much in bets).

The win percentage for craps seemed to be all over the place, with Trump Plaza with the lowest (11.4%) and The Atlantic Club with the highest (25.6%).

As to be expected with a pure luck game, the roulette win percentage largely hovered around 21%. Caesars was by far the lowest at 14.8%. The lowest revenue casinos (for the 3 games I looked at) had the 3 highest win percentages. Resorts had the highest at 30.7%.

The average win percentage for blackjack was 13.19%, craps was 18.3%, and roulette was 21.95%.

Anyone have any insight or thoughts on these numbers? Anyone want me to run any other games?

Well be careful, the win percentage is simply calculated as money won vs the game's drop. If players buy in with chips from other games, and not at the same game, that skews the numbers.

Also, I would expect the win percentage to be higher at places with fewer tables, because there are fewer tables to "rebet" the same buy-in at, rather than to make a new cash drop at a different table.

There is no way to get a handle on a live table game. Drop is the only way to chart it. Slots and any automated table games are able to compute the actual house hold %.

Quote: sodawater

Well be careful, the win percentage is simply calculated as money won vs the game's drop. If players buy in with chips from other games, and not at the same game, that skews the numbers.

Also, I would expect the win percentage to be higher at places with fewer tables, because there are fewer tables to "rebet" the same buy-in at, rather than to make a new cash drop at a different table.

Ah that makes sense. Bummer it was fun to play with those numbers but yeah drop is kinda useless with all the noise in there.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

-$46,000+ on Borgatas baccarat tables. Were the cards shuffled?

They probably just got pounded by a high roller. It happens. What is the typical month?

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Quote: bbvk05

They probably just got pounded by a high roller. It happens. What is the typical month?

I dream to one day be one of those statistical outliers.

Quote: BedWetterBetter

One of Trump plaza's biggest mistakes is keeping low limit tables open on weekends and evenings. You can get $1 and $5 BJ tables as well as Craps, so needless to say the clientel isn't the most affluent. Yea, they'll get more low buy-ins and "rollers" with money clips full of 20s instead of C-notes. But ultimately, they'll go elsewhere to avoid the derelicts trying to turn their $14 into a couple of hundred dollar bills.

The atmosphere is dreary and depressing. Bus service is sparce and has hardly any activity in the bus lobby. Drink service is SLOW and not very good.

Shame. Used to be one of the classiest places to play on the coast. And that was just recently.

Revel would get ZERO from Trump Plaza closing and as stated above, other than current players moving to the Taj, most other casinos really dont want the people playing there currently. The "Turning $14 in thousands" is the correct statement regarding the current people at the low minimum tables.

You will see plays you only think possible at other casinos from people betting $1, while paying .25 for the opportunity. Doubles and stands on 12 versus 10 are commonplace.

Quote: Pokeraddict

Steve Wynn and MGM are run out of NJ.

Didn't Wynn leave voluntarily? Yes on Hilton and Hefner being outlawed.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Maybe "Jerome" snuck in.

No one probably got that reference....and I'm not sure why Ivey put that on the card for Norm to read on the broadcast...

Quote: SanchoPanza

Didn't Wynn leave voluntarily? Yes on Hilton and Hefner being outlawed.

Yes, he gave them the finger before they could throw him out on their own.

Quote: TIMSPEED

No one probably got that reference....and I'm not sure why Ivey put that on the card for Norm to read on the broadcast...

Ivey used to be called "No Home Jerome" at the Taj and the Trop when he played underage. He would play 18 hours a day on the weekends and sleep under the boardwalk if he was broke. His fake ID said "Jerome."

The day he turned 21 he walked into the Taj poker room and the floorman said "Hello, Jerome." Ivey said "I have no idea what you're talking about, my name is Phil Ivey."

Complex Enigma. I tell you what I don't understand about the Borgata. Before I went in September to AC, they did not lead a single category in paybacks, but came out as the overall best payback in AC.

Jeez, I didn't really like Trump Plaza all that much either, but I don't blame patrons for a casinos woes. All fault has to go to the casino. Anyone who owns a casino and can't make money didn't plan their moves very well. MAD applied to casinos and they wind up blowing themselves up instead of going to war. I just can't understand how a casino with 20 year jumps on the competition can lose.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Didn't Wynn leave voluntarily? Yes on Hilton and Hefner being outlawed.

Update on MGM:
"In a dramatic reversal, MGM Resorts International is looking to keep its ownership in Borgata three years after it decided to leave Atlantic City in a dispute over an Asian partner whose father is allegedly tied to organized crime. The Las Vegas-based company now wants its New Jersey casino license reinstated and is seeking permission to retain its 50 percent stake in Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa as a deadline approaches next month to sell it.

“MGM Resorts International is, and always has been, committed to the highest standards of operation and regulatory compliance. If our petition is successful we would welcome the opportunity to once again be an active, contributing member of the New Jersey gaming marketplace through our 50 percent ownership of Borgata,” the company said in a statement Monday.

MGM has filed papers asking the state Casino Control Commission to reconsider the company’s status for a New Jersey license. Matthew Levinson, the commission’s chairman, said the petition will be considered at a board meeting on Wednesday. “MGM has filed a petition to amend its 2010 stipulation with the Division of Gaming Enforcement so it can seek a ruling on whether it meets the state’s license qualification requirements and reacquire its interest in the Borgata,” Levinson said. acpress

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Speaking of.... A 20 year old kid was caught in the poker room at Motorcity Casino last week. The dealer and floor people were suspended.

Harsh! That seems like the wrong people - shouldn't the ax fall on the person who checked the ID?

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

back to our regularly scheduled program!

The Plaza's returns look like the inverse of the lightbulb problem we talked about yesterday. For how many years can Plaza's returns drop 50% YoY before they reach 0?

Write up on NY SLOTS at tracks.....


http://standardbredcanada.ca/news/2-19-13/ny-racinos-outpacing-atlantic-city.html