The 10 year plan

I remember the day I quit my retail job. I had just been held up, yet again. This one was different though. As I looked out the corner of my eye, I could almost look down the barrel of the rusty gun held against the temple of my head. I say, almost. I couldn't quite, because the crackhead holding the gun to my head was shaking so bad. I didn't care about the money, because it wasn't my money and frankly I wasn't paid anywhere near enough for this crap. Well, I did care about the money. I cared there wasn't enough in the register as my shift had just started. I opened the register. There was less than 50 bucks. A ten, a few fives, singles and change. Crackhead Charlie wasn't impressed. “Where's the rest of it” he growled. I tried to explain that I had just started my shift, but it was like I was speaking a different language. He wasn't hearing a word I was saying. The gun was now waving in front of my face. He shook, uncontrollably like Muhammad Ali, as his burned out brain tried to figure out what to do next. It was a couple seconds, but seemed like an hour. Then he grabbed the few bills and dashed out the door. That was my last day of being employed by someone else. I told my boss as I left I would not be returning.

Later that night at home, I planned my future. I had been reading and learning about blackjack and card counting for a number of months. I had even recently made two trip to Atlantic City for a couple short sessions. I wasn't very good, losing the count numerous times. My plan had been to more or less go the hobby-weekend warrior, route and find out if card counting even worked and more importantly if I would be able to do it.

Fate and events earlier that day had now altered this plan. The time was now. I wasn't prepared. I didn't have the bankroll. I had so little knowledge of any of it, especially bankroll and risk of ruin. What I had was $4300 and time, lot's of time. I also was fortunate enough that I had minimal expenses. Single, shared cheap rent with a roommate, no vehicle. I could live off of $500 a month if I had too.

Having made probably the worst decision of my life, the decision to dive in head first, like a farm boy plucked off the farm and thrown into battle with no basic training, I drew up my 10 year plan. It wasn't very detailed, because I had no idea what I was doing or getting into. I lost that 10 year plan when I relocated, but it went something like this:

Step 1. Survive. Play $5 blackjack in Atlantic City, spreading red, hopefully making $500-$600 a month to pay my half of rent and lots of mac and cheese, PB & J sandwiches meals. I didn't even know at the time my EV from these crappy 8 deck games, played at full tables was about $2 and hour, when I could find a $5 table. And the RoR, I was playing....OMG! I knew nothing of RoR.

Step 2. Somehow (and a plan should not contain the word 'somehow') begin to build my bankroll to higher levels, so I could begin to move up ever so slightly in stakes, winning more money and building a bigger BR, 5 figures and beyond and eventually get to the green chip level.

Step 3. Continue to build my bankroll towards 6 figures, playing and spreading black chip level, earning 6 figures per year.

Step 4. Accumulate a million dollars.

Now, I know a million dollars, don't sound like much to some of you. I mean, it still sounds like a lot, but you can't do nearly as much as you think with a million dollars. But to a 21 year old with $4300, to his name, a million dollars is a fortune. So that was the plan....as easy as 1..2..3..4...a million dollars playing blackjack.

So fast forward. This is the beginning of year 10....and guess what. I don't have a million dollars and I am not close. I almost 20% there, and that's a little depressing.

Step 1 took years, rather than the months that I thought it would. It took me until my 4th year for my bankroll to hit 5 figures. Until my 5th year before I started spreading green, and by the time I did get there, I was already wearing out my welcome in Atlantic City. Picking up and moving across country was not a part of the plan at any juncture and yet I did so.

Step 3 has proved to be problematic. There is a threshold right there. Between playing green to mid black and playing and spreading black that like many things, I had no idea about. As I learned about this threshold, I have chosen to stay on this side of it for longevity reasons. This side of the threshold, will not earn you 6 figures a year, unless you have a better than expected year. And I have not earned 6 figures in a single year playing blackjack, but have settled into a range just shy of that, which was problematic for the 10 year plan.

So, in re-evaluating, I now figure I am about 10 years away from my 10 year plan goals. And that's a little depressing. Not because I have 10 more years of this. I love my life. I love what I do. I have been so fortunate to have experienced the magnificent journey that I have, even though I am well short of my initial, unrealistic goals. The part that is a little depressing is that I don't know if I have 10 years left. Hopefully, I have 10 years left, but is there 10 years of beatable blackjack as I know it left? I'm talking technology and electronic versions of games and all.

But anyway, after a few days of battling the flu and too much time spent online, time to get back to work. Year 1 of a new 10 year plan.

Happiness isn't always measured in dollars, and you have a plan where most don't. Keep your head up and looking straight forward and it will work out. You don't have an easy life and by all means have worked hard and earned everything you have, but many would be envious of you.

Count me as rooting for you to get where you want to be.

kewl- if you are a 30 year old who has already saved up $200,000 via AP blackjack, consider yourself a success, not a failure. I would guess that puts you in the top 10% of 30 year olds. I agree that then future of blackjack AP is cloudy. Some of your previous posts have implied that you are actually more diversified, which does offer some protection for you. Perhaps you might start thinking about what you would do if the AP door does close......

earning high 5-figures is very respectable. you're earning a living just like any other young professional with a decent job. plus, you are getting rooms, meals, and other perks.

Studies have shown that income past 100k a year brings vastly diminishing returns in happiness. So you are right there in the sweet spot.

" Studies have shown that income past 100k a year brings vastly diminishing returns in happiness." Gee, somebody please make me unhappy. LOL

Quote: sodawater

earning high 5-figures is very respectable.

This. I think it also highlights that in many forms of AP: "It takes money to make money". Playing lower limits, much of your profit gets eaten up in expenses. :(

I really appreciate your posts on the life of an AP kewlj, I find them quite enlightening. Wishes to positive variance!

Thanx for the well wishes guys. I am not looking for a pat on the back. Having some down time the past couple days, I am reflecting and refocusing and wrote that story for the blackjack site's story section and thought I would share it here as well.

SOOPOO, I don't don't consider myself a failure. And I am not really depressed or anything. Just saying, sometimes you are not where you thought you would be. Life throws curves. You re-evaluate, refocus and move forward. In my case, my expectations were unrealistic, because I was unprepared for the journey to begin with. But I am OK. Life is good. And I now have more of a incredible journey to look forward to and experience.

Big props to you man!

Dreams are meant to be chased.
Sometimes the finish line is further than expected, but you have a PLAN...in turn puts you ahead of the "game".

Quote: kewlj

is there 10 years of beatable blackjack as I know it left? I'm talking technology and electronic versions of games and all.
.

Why are you so hung up on the stupid machines.
People don't go to Vegas to play table game machines,
they go to interact with live dealers and enjoy the
interactions of a live table.

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Quote: sodawater

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2019628,00.html

Gee What am I missing in the statement from the link ?

The lower a person's annual income falls below that benchmark, the unhappier he or she feels. But no matter how much more than $75,000 people make, they don't report any greater degree of happiness.

Someone is confused and this time it might not be me .

" All in all though and even with the threat of backoffs or barrings, I'd rather do this than just about any other job out there. "

If you are doing what you love, it is not a job. It's ecstasy !

Quote: Buzzard

Gee What am I missing in the statement from the link ?

The lower a person's annual income falls below that benchmark, the unhappier he or she feels. But no matter how much more than $75,000 people make, they don't report any greater degree of happiness.

Someone is confused and this time it might not be me .

haha. you can take from it exactly what i stated. incomes greater than 100k provide vastly diminishing returns of happiness.

Quote: EvenBob

Why are you so hung up on the stupid machines.
People don't go to Vegas to play table game machines,
they go to interact with live dealers and enjoy the
interactions of a live table.

I so hope you are correct Bob. You are due to be right, aren't you? (just kidding Bob)

The people don't always get what they want. The industry will force the electronic games down people throats if they are financially beneficial to the casino, and the players will accept it, just like they accept, H17, rather than S17, 6-5 BJ rather than 3-2, and even going back further before my time, double 00 roulette instead of single 0 roulette. The players don't dictate the games, as they should. The industry knows they will still come. They will still play.

I don't know how often you get to Vegas, Bob, but in the last 6 months there has been a tremendous amount of electronic games being installed all over town, Strip, downtown, local store alike. The most common is Craps, and roulette and big 6 made by Aruze. By your logic didn't people come to Vegas to play those games (craps, roulette, big six) with a live dealer? yet these electronic games are doing well and multiplying almost daily. Can blackjack be far behind?

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Quote: kewlj

I so hope you are correct Bob. You are due to be right, aren't you? (just kidding Bob)

The ultimate Gambler's Fallacy

" they don't report any greater degree of happiness." that don't mean diminishing in my book !

diminishing returns not diminishing overall.

Quote: kewlj

there has been a tremendous amount of electronic games being installed all over town

But the pits aren't shrinking, are they. You'll more then
likely see the electronics being pulled in six months
than you will pits shrinking.

Kewlj I understand the ap lifestyle is a little secretive as to not blow ones cover, but if you don't mind me asking how often do you normally " go to work " and how long is your shift. What percentage of your shifts have positive variance?

Great, great post and thread.

For anyone who has ever committed to any form of self-employment, or even simple investment strategy, there is much here that is useful.

Personally, I am just concluding Year 20 of self employment, and adopting a10-year plan looking forward is a wonderful concept.

Quote: Beardgoat

Kewlj I understand the ap lifestyle is a little secretive as to not blow ones cover, but if you don't mind me asking how often do you normally " go to work " and how long is your shift. What percentage of your shifts have positive variance?

I play a lot, Beardgoat. I consider myself a grinder, which is a low to mid level player that that plays a ton of rounds grinding out a tiny advantage, playing at a lower level, flying under the radar, so to speak, which allows him to play many rounds and still be welcome. I do it a little differently than the traditional grinder though playing very short session and constantly moving around. I kind of grind my way to 80,000 hands per year one short session of 10, 12, 18, 25 rounds at a time.

I play at least some about 300 days a year. I don't care for Saturdays. They are too crowded, plus I need one day away. But still occasionally hit a session or two in the morning or early afternoon if I am at a casino for feeding purposes. I don't play shifts. Blackjack and AP is more a lifestyle than a job for me and it is very intertwined with and consumes my life. I go out for a few hours here and play. Then later in the day, after my nap, I play again. Then maybe take a break to eat and watch a sporting event and hit another session or two. Somedays I am going shopping, to the doctors or hiking at Red Rock Canyon and I manage to hit a session or two at a casino that is on the way. It's all very muddled. The only part that is like shift work, is a few days, sometimes as much as a week per month, you have to play some night shifts and sleep during the day, to expand your rotation. I really don't care for that. But it is necessary.

Quote: midwestgb

Great, great post and thread.

For anyone who has ever committed to any form of self-employment, or even simple investment strategy, there is much here that is useful.

Personally, I am just concluding Year 20 of self employment, and adopting a10-year plan looking forward is a wonderful concept.

I think a long range plan is useful. 5, maybe 10 years. It doesn't have to be so formal. Just an idea of where you want to be. The mistake I made was not allowing for the road bumps. Whatever the endeavor, you tend to then you will be progressing, taking a step up or forward in the future and from that step, forward again and forward again, which would put you xx amount of steps ahead at such and such a point in the future. You may fail to figure, as I did, that their will be some missteps or bumps in the road that knock you back some, so maybe your progression isn't as significant as your projected.

Gambling is a tough, tough business. I salute you for succeeding. God knows I've busted out my fair share of bankrolls (this latest one being the biggest), so I know how much discipline it takes. It's serious -- NOT a game. I know I sure as hell couldn't do it professionally. (I'll have to actually work - ugh).

I was also once robbed at gunpoint, while working retail for a vitamin store outlet, decades ago, as a much younger man.

It affected me greatly, - as had other traumatic events in my life. I went to college, paying for it partly by military service, and by working in an office, as temp work. It compelled me to move, and move on up.

No traumatic event compelled me to become an AP player, (as I did not become one), nor as part of a ten year personal plan. A moving story - yes, very much so. If it did for someone else, very fine. Life changing events may lead to fascinating new roads in life.

Some crackhead's trigger finger sure sent you on an exciting journey.
I'm glad that it has worked out for you.
Places like SouthPoint are alert at their "red" tables now, so good luck with the greens and blacks.
One Vegas Poker room went fully electronic and shortly thereafter was forced to close. There will always be live BJ dealers and you will find a place somewhere, no matter what technology and trends develop.

I remember the Wizard's party pit dealer friend who went from never having held a deck of cards in her life to party pit dealer after two days of training and practice. It was a real challenge for her but she did well and didn't let the inevitability of her aging or the potential for industry changes affect her decisions.

I remember "Subways Are For Sleeping", a compendium of vignettes from the lives of those down and outs who lived outside of normal conventions. Nobody is ever totally down and out. That crack user came close to blowing your head off, but you got out of that situation. You enjoy your current lifestyle of free rooms and meals and growing bank balance. Good luck. Neither crack head nor eagle-eyed suit can stop you!

Quote: kewlj

I remember the day I quit my retail job. ....

Great story, kewlj. It's inspiring to me to know that there are folks like you out there, even if I will probably never be a full time AP. There are opportunities out there...like Alec Baldwin says in Glengarry Glen Ross: "The money's out there, you pick it up, it's yours. You don't, I got no sympathy for you."

Okay so that might be a little bit harsh :)

Quote: AcesAndEights

Great story, kewlj. It's inspiring to me to know that there are folks like you out there, even if I will probably never be a full time AP. There are opportunities out there...like Alec Baldwin says in Glengarry Glen Ross: "The money's out there, you pick it up, it's yours. You don't, I got no sympathy for you."

Okay so that might be a little bit harsh :)

Actually we should make every high schol student watch that speech in their senior year. Call it "reality starts here."