duckston09
duckston09
Joined: Feb 13, 2011
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August 21st, 2012 at 8:08:53 PM permalink
There's been 23 perfect games in the history of baseball. Bode Dockal has been to two baseball games in his life and they were both perfect games. What's the chances of that happening? His father brought Bode to both games because he's unable to walk. He's nine months old.
Mission146
Mission146
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August 21st, 2012 at 8:24:04 PM permalink
Quote: duckston09

There's been 23 perfect games in the history of baseball. Bode Dockal has been to two baseball games in his life and they were both perfect games. What's the chances of that happening? His father brought Bode to both games because he's unable to walk. He's nine months old.



The number of perfect games in the history of baseball is irrelevant. It is impossible for someone who is nine months old to attend a game that happened more than nine months ago, so those games are immaterial. A nine-month old could only have attended games that happened this MLB season because he had not been born during any prior MLB season.

There have been 3,674 (all combined records)/2 = 1,837 games of MLB Baseball completed, source: Yahoo Sports, as of 11:17p.m. on this 8/21/12.

Three of these games have seen one pitcher throw a perfect game. However, there have been two pitchers who have started each game, so we're back to the 3,674 possibilites of a perfect game.

Bode Dockal has seen two games, both of which were perfect games. This is where it gets hairy. You could disclude other games in-progress at the same time as the games he saw because he could not physically be at two games at the same time, or you could say that he could have went to one game as opposed to the other, so they all count. I'm going with the latter.

3/3674 * 2/3672 (Starting Pitchers) = 0.00000044474331-Probability of attending only two games (four starting pitchers) this season and seeing a perfect game.

1/.00000044474331 = 1:2,248,488.01
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
24Bingo
24Bingo
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August 21st, 2012 at 8:37:01 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

There have been 3,674 (all combined records)/2 = 1,837 games of MLB Baseball completed, source: Yahoo Sports, as of 11:17p.m. on this 8/21/12.



Erm, are you sure about this? It's 162 games per regular season, meaning 81 per team per season. Currently, that means 2430 games per season, so that number seems a leetle low.
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Mission146
Mission146
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August 21st, 2012 at 8:45:53 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Erm, are you sure about this? It's 162 games per regular season, meaning 81 per team per season. Currently, that means 2430 games per season, so that number seems a leetle low.



The season isn't anywhere near over yet. In fact, most teams have played between 121-122 games this season, so that is 121.5/162 = .75 of the games.

If you subtract 25% from 2,430 = 2,430 * .75 = 1822.5

The difference is due to the estimated games played per team (121.5) the 1,837 is exact as of the minute I typed it.

How could the kid have seen games that haven't happened?

EDIT: Just for kicks:

If we assume that there will be no other perfect games this year, then you have 4,860 starting pitchers and three perfect games. We would also assume that the kid doesn't see any more games this year, because then he is 2:x.

3/4860 * 2/4858 = 0.0000002541309 or 1/0.0000002541309 = 1:3,934,979.97

If there is one more perfect game, but the kid still sees no more games.

4/4860 * 3/4858 = 0.0000005082618 or 1/0.0000005082618 = 1:1,967,489.98

You can see that if we finish out the season and there is just one more perfect game, the odds against him being 2:2 are less than they are even now.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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