A Conservative Craps Strategy looking for critique

I am a new craps player. I like the don't pass line bet. Usually I don't lay odds unless the point is a 4/10. In which case, I then lay odds in the amount of double my don't pass bet(new and and still learning the lingo). It's a conservative strategy, but I conform to the win small lose small idiology. Does anybody have any advice on other conservative/low risk improvements to my game? Also, somebody told me wrong bettors shouldn't make place bets. Is that true?

If you want to improve a little, lay the odds on all the points. They are paid at fair odds, so even though it seems you'll win more if you just stick with 4 and 10, you don't really since the payout is 1:2. You win more often, but less money. You'll do fine in the long run laying odds on any of the points equally.

I agree with cclub that you should lay odds on all points.

I believe that making place bets while betting wrong would be hedging, which would violate commandment 7 (https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/tencom.html).

You are trying to win when a 7 is thrown, so why make a bet that would lose?

Also, somebody told me wrong bettors shouldn't make place bets. Is that true?

A place bet would be hedging and doesn't make a lot of sense. If you want to get more numbers working and more action make some don't come bets with odds. Personally I get way to board at a craps table with only one number working.

Quote: Joegambler

Does anybody have any advice on other conservative/low risk improvements to my game?

By conservative, it sounds like you want to play a low variance game. If that's the case, I think you're doing it the best you can right now. Just make the minimum bet on the don't pass line. If you want to increase your action without adding to the house advantage, lay max odds on all numbers whenever possible. The only way to reduce your variance further is to hedge, but that just puts more money in the house's pocket and it's not much fun either!

Could you explain what low variance means better. Also, if I increase my wager by laying odds on all points doesn't that only level the playing field for the house. By establishing a point, atleast the way I was looking at it, I felt like I already had them "over a barrel", because seven is the most likley number to come up.

Quote: Joegambler

Could you explain what low variance means better. Also, if I increase my wager by laying odds on all points doesn't that only level the playing field for the house. By establishing a point, atleast the way I was looking at it, I felt like I already had them "over a barrel", because seven is the most likley number to come up.

Variance is the distribution of results around the mean. So you may expect to lose about $1.36 making 10 x $10 don't pass bets, but actually you may lose $100 or win $100. Most of the time, however, your result will be relatively close to the mean of -$1.36 compared with other bets (like the hard ways) that are more volatile.

It seems to be a common point of confusion about laying odds on don't bets... Yes, after the point is established, you are more likely to win the bet than to lose. However, before the point is established, you are more likely to lose it than win! Getting a point established is the hard part for a don't bet. Every time you put a bet on that don't pass line, the house has an advantage. Laying odds has a 0% house advantage no matter what. Let's say you're contemplating laying $10 odds... Think about what else you'd do with that $10 if you didn't use it for odds. You could place another don't pass bet (or don't come bet), which has an expected value of $9.86 or you could place the odds bet with an expected value of $10.00.
See this thread for much more debate and examples on this issue...
was reading wiz's craps faq explain me this

Quote: seattledice

I agree with cclub that you should lay odds on all points.

I believe that making place bets while betting wrong would be hedging, which would violate commandment 7

You are trying to win when a 7 is thrown, so why make a bet that would lose?

Yes, lay odds on all points, or don't come points, rolled. For bankroll management, I limit my exposure to no more than three numbers per shooter. I bet the point (on the dark side), with odds. I bet the next number (what would be the first come bet), with odds. And then if either are made, I bet one, and only one, additonal DC or DP number, with max odds on all bets. This way, even if one number is thrown, the other two make up for the loss incurred by the first one. If two numbers are thrown, and if the last one I win, by hitting big red, makes up somewhat, but not entirely, for the first two lost. This keeps me from "chasing the seven", by making bet after bet on the dark side when a hot shooter has the dice and is decimating the wrong betters.

It is a slow, but (as close to) "sure" way of at least staying in the game for the long haul, and waiting for the inevitable streak of "bad luck" that the right players don't want to see.
BTW, for a $10 table, don't even think of buying in with less than $600. You won't survive it. And for some reason it doesn't scale proportionately, for $20, with max odds, you need $1500 buy in to survive.

Nick the Greek, a well known don't bettor, is reported to have said to the effect: "If I could do

it all over again, I wouldn't have laid odds."

Try this series of don't bets:

2 unit don't pass, then 1 unit don't come, then 2 unit don't come.

Wait for seven out: do not replace numbers if picked off.

Hey Joe thanks for the thread. Your plan of action is sound; just stay away from the middle of the table and as others have mentioned don't hedge your "don'ts" with place bets. I too was thinking of starting a similar thread in hopes of getting some constructive critique of my craps strategy.

Unlike yourself however I will be placing my chips on the "right" side of the line. As it has been discussed on many other threads already, my entertainment funds are for entertainment. I get more value when I am cajoling with my table mates and having a good time.

Thus here is my conservative craps strategy: I like to get my action on the 6 and 8 with full odds, but I don't want to buy, place, or put it there. Therefore, I only use the pass line and come bets to establish a point on the 6 or the 8 then back it up with max odds of 5X to 10X depending on the table minimum. I will continue to make a pass/come bet until I either establish the 6 or 8, or I establish a max of 3 points. At that time I do nothing. If I have one of my two favorite points I wait for it to hit or Big Red. If I haven't got the 6 or 8, I wait for one of my other points to hit then replace it with another pass/come bet or Big Red again.

This strategy has several advantages IMO. First, lower variance using only the 6 and 8 for max bet. Second, is the natural insurance that is created by following up a weaker pass line point with a come bet that cancels out or at least minimizes the effects of a 7-out.

I have simulated this using WinCraps with moderate success. It usually more than doubles the original bankroll before it eventually bankrupts. The bankrupts tend to come after several thousand rolls. [starting bankroll = $500, minimum bet = $5, odds on the 6 or 8 = 5X]

The most conservative strategy without hedging is to just bet the minimum on pass or don't pass, but it's not too exciting. However, that's the lowest expected loss you can get at the craps table and the even-money payout, combined with the near-to-50% chance of winning each bet minimizes the volatility.

When you lay odds on the 4 or 10, you are increasing the volatility without adding to the expected loss. This means that you will have wider swings in your results, winning more if you are lucky but also losing more if you are not. Laying odds on the other points is the same idea, adding volatility without adding to expected loss. The odds on the 4 or 10 may seem more desirable to you because you have twice as many combinations to win as to lose; however, when you lay odds on those number you have to risk twice as much as you win. When you lay odds against the 5 or 9, you bet 1.5 times what you win and just 1.2 times what you'll win on the 6 or 8. Actually, the standard deviation (SD, a statistical measure of variability) is lower for odds bets on the 6/8, next for 5/9 and most for 4/10. For example:

40 bets (this just relates to the odds bets, not the flat part)

4/10 bet $20 to win $10
SD: $89
5/ 9 bet $15 to win $10
SD: $77
6/8 bet $12 to win $10
SD: $69

One option for you would be to play the DP without laying odds until (if ever) you get ahead by a few units, then start laying single odds (that means laying enough to WIN an amount equal to your flat bet, like the above if the flat bet is $10).

Hedging can reduce your volatility even more than just DP betting without odds, but when you make an additional bet, of any kind, that bet is subject to its own house advantage, so, in effect, you pay an additional "tax" or "cover charge", so to speak, to hedge. Also, because it limits your winnings as well as your losses, it means you have to be luckier in order to overcome both HAs and break even or better.

I don't know what your betting level is, but a sharp guy on the rec.gambling.craps usegroup came up with a low-ev hedge that utilizes partially-offsetting pass and don't pass bets. Here's how it works:

bet $5 pass and $16 don't pass
if a point of 4 or 10 is established, bet $7 on pass odds
if a point of 5 or 9 is established, bet $8 on pass odds
if a point of 6 or 8 is established, bet $10 on pass odds

Of course, you have the house edge on both bets to contend with. However, your maximum loss on any decision is $11, and you are guaranteed a win, albeit small, on every point. Here's why:

7 or 11 win $5, lose $16 = -$11
2 or 3 lose $5, win $16 = +$11
12 lose $5, push DP = -$ 5
make 6/8 win $17, lose $16 = +$ 1
lose 6/8 lose $15, win $16 = +$ 1
make 5/9 win $17, lose $16 = +$ 1
lose 5/9 lose $13, win $16 = +$ 3
make 4/10 win $19, lose $16= +$ 3
lose 4/10 lose $12, win $16- +$ 4

For 60 of these (about two hours' play, perhaps), the expected loss is $22.67 and the standard deviation is just $49.82. For 60 $25 pass bets, the expected loss would be $21.21, but the SD would be $193.63, so you can see just how much this methods damps the variation for roughly the same amount risked. However, this means you have a much lower probability of coming out ahead, because variance works both ways, allowing you to win more but also making you liable to lose more.

If there were no variance, you could never win. Consider betting the same amount on pass and don't pass. Every pass win would be wiped out by a DP loss. Every DP win would be wiped out by a pass loss. The 12 would be a loss for the pass, a push for the DP, so you could never have a net win on any bet, and your session net would be minus the amount of your bet times the number of 12s, period. Of course, no one would play that way.

Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Alan Shank