FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 1st, 2011 at 5:58:18 AM permalink
>If there is a wheel bias because the slots are not all the same size
This might be a bi-modal bias due to alternating use of large and small ball by the croupier.

>if there is a wheel bias because its out of balance,
This would be detectable by octet analysis.

Best bet: don't waste time trying to prove either of these very rare events.
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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October 1st, 2011 at 7:04:14 AM permalink
Quote: statman

In his paper, Murphy gives a circular chart showing unusually high frequencies for the the numbers 0, 25, and 29, however he doesn't say exactly what those frequencies were. That kind of information would be useful to me. Even with a perfectly true wheel it is possible to look back at the record and say you could have made money by betting on such-and-such a number, however with a perfectly true wheel there is no way of knowing in advance what that number would be. In order to make money consistently on a number, that number has to have a probability of coming up greater than 1/35.

MathExtemist says that your computations will be precise if you are working only with integers. That is true if they remain as integers, however the majority of mathematical environments have a limit on the size of an integer and if exceeds that maximum the variable will be converted to a floating point number and only the first fifteen or so digits will be retained. The rest will become zeros. The Python programming language has a large integer data type that will preserve all digits regardless of the size of the number. The computer algebra systems (CAS) also will do this. The top ones are Maple and Mathematica. These are pricey, but there are also some free ones. For details see the "Comparison of Computer Algebra Systems" topic in Wikipedia. The CAS's also will preserve the precision of rational and irrational numbers. If the square root of 2 is entered or is arrived at in the course of a calculation it will be kept as "sqrt(2)" in all further calculations. Sqrt(2) is accurate to an infinite number of decimal places. When the calculation is finished the CAS will approximate it to a number of decimal places specified by the user, which can be in the thousands. I recommend calculating an alternating series using a CAS lest some of the positive and negative terms cancel and produce garbage digits in the answer.



I don't know why I keep reading this junk.
I heart Crystal Math.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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October 1st, 2011 at 7:35:30 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

>If there is a wheel bias because the slots are not all the same size
This might be a bi-modal bias due to alternating use of large and small ball by the croupier.

>if there is a wheel bias because its out of balance,
This would be detectable by octet analysis.

Best bet: don't waste time trying to prove either of these very rare events.

Wait a sec...

Are you saying that a bias is a rare event, or that if there is a bias, it would be different than what I described?

If it's the latter, please elaborate, because the two types I described are all I can imagine.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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October 1st, 2011 at 8:00:40 AM permalink
Quote: statman

In his paper, Murphy gives a circular chart showing unusually high frequencies for the the numbers 0, 25, and 29, however he doesn't say exactly what those frequencies were.


Yes he does. Re-read the article -- it's on the first page, bottom of the 2nd column.

Quote:

MathExtemist says that your computations will be precise if you are working only with integers. That is true if they remain as integers, however the majority of mathematical environments have a limit on the size of an integer and if exceeds that maximum the variable will be converted to a floating point number and only the first fifteen or so digits will be retained. The rest will become zeros. [snip] I recommend calculating an alternating series using a CAS lest some of the positive and negative terms cancel and produce garbage digits in the answer.


You misquote me. I said "exact", not "precise". Exact has one meaning; precision is a relative measurement. Double-precision floating point representation is plenty precise to handle the sort of calculations we're talking about. The few results from you that I've seen, however, are incorrect by fully 1% or more. That cannot be explained by rounding error, but it is neatly explained by the fact that you used the wrong formula. See this post for the difference between "one specific number appearing N times in 38 sessions of M spins" vs "any of 38 numbers appearing N times in one session of M spins".
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
statman
statman
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October 2nd, 2011 at 2:43:10 AM permalink
MATERIAL REMOVED

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Many thanks to those who have been helpful.
A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant
statman
statman
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October 2nd, 2011 at 1:53:53 PM permalink
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Please flag this page so that it may be deleted.
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buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
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October 2nd, 2011 at 2:08:23 PM permalink
Welcome back, THIEF. And the capitals are intentional. Not only do you steal money, ever worse you steal a man's good name. Just because you did not succeed, does not make you less of a THIEF. You try and sell a worthless on this forum, imply that the Wiz somehow approves . When delete you go to the free zone again and try and pitch your worthless shit once more. Just imagine if some
sucker bought it and then complained that he only bought that piece of shit because he trusted this forum.

THIEF
Good name in man and woman, dear my lord,
Is the immediate jewel of their souls.
Who steals my purse steals trash; 'tis something, nothing;
'Twas mine, 'tis his, and has been slave to thousands;
But he that filches from me my good name
Robs me of that which not enriches him,
And makes me poor indeed.
statman
statman
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
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October 3rd, 2011 at 3:46:15 AM permalink
MATERIAL REMOVED

Some of it eventually may reappear on the web site of the
Rancocas Valley Journal of Applied Mathematics
Please flag this page so that it may be deleted.
Many thanks to those who have been helpful.
A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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October 3rd, 2011 at 7:18:37 AM permalink
All of it is wrong.

Here are three pieces of advice.
First, check your work via simulation. You have a fair wheel simulator, use it. You won't get close to 19.75%.
Second, re-read the Wizard's article on this problem. You've gotten things wrong.
Third, in view of the above, check your ego. Miscalculations and overwrought proclamations do not qualify you as one who can credibly lecture the members of this particular forum.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
gog
gog
Joined: Jan 7, 2011
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October 3rd, 2011 at 8:24:12 AM permalink
So you are 'educating' people who make their living in part from calculating advanced mathematics/statistics, and come up with a method to beat an entire industry that makes their money off these numbers at their own game while using only a thousandth of the sample size, by copy and pasting sophomore year textbooks? And you are willing to share this knowledge with us for a bargain price of $25? I can't believe anyone can be this deluded, so that leaves only one other possibility.

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