odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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March 24th, 2019 at 3:36:08 AM permalink
Quote: Chigu

For example say itís a $5 table, point is 4 or 10. If you take 5x odds you would be paid $55 (50 odds + $5 pass line) for the $30 bet. If you just took the $30 and placed the 4 or 10 you would win $60-$1 commission.

If point is 5 or 9 you win $42 for your $25+$5 bet which is the same payout as putting $30 on the 5 or 9. The 6 or 8 would give you a $35 win for a $25+$5 bet which is the same as putting $30 on the 6 or 8.

This kind of analysis is flawed because you are not working with probabilities. If you are only looking at the payoffs, without weighing them, then the best bet is on the 12, end of discussion. If Nathan weighs in here she will agree with that thinking - I hope that gives you pause.

Quote:

So you are giving up the flexibility to pull down or turn off with no additional payoff and all you are gaining is a slight edge on the come out.

the contract part of the bet is only the $5, the odds portion can be taken down .
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see. 
Chigu
Chigu
Joined: Feb 13, 2019
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March 24th, 2019 at 9:11:02 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

This kind of analysis is flawed because you are not working with probabilities. If you are only looking at the payoffs, without weighing them, then the best bet is on the 12, end of discussion. If Nathan weighs in here she will agree with that thinking - I hope that gives you pause.

the contract part of the bet is only the $5, the odds portion can be taken down .



I donít get it? Instead of betting 5 on pass line wait until the point is established and then bet the whole $30 that you would have bet on that actual point number. That way the payout is the same or greater and you can pull it all down (including the $5 you would lose on the passline eventually.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 24th, 2019 at 10:23:38 AM permalink
Quote: Chigu

[snip] That way the payout is the same or greater

you are repeating the error of only looking at the payout. You may continue with that argument if you like, but that would be the end of my participation.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see. 
teddys
teddys
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November 17th, 2019 at 1:55:45 PM permalink
You're forgetting to take into account the advantage on the pass/come of natural winners (7/11). That is not a small advantage; it is huge.

6/8 Place bets and 4/10 buys with vig on win only are good bets. You'll be playing "tough craps" if those are the only bets you make (and odds as well of course).
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
Joined: Aug 12, 2018
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November 17th, 2019 at 2:27:42 PM permalink
What I don't understand is not why he lost that money; I've seen people lose that much before.

I don't understand is why someone with a six figure bankroll would be down at that rat hole in the first place.
The best things in life are not free.
billryan
billryan
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Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolf
November 17th, 2019 at 2:41:05 PM permalink
What I don't get is why a dealer would tell another player what another person has been drawing in markers. I'd be pissed if someone told a table full of strangers my business.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Boz
Boz
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Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolfodiousgambit
November 17th, 2019 at 5:38:51 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

You're forgetting to take into account the advantage on the pass/come of natural winners (7/11). That is not a small advantage; it is huge.

6/8 Place bets and 4/10 buys with vig on win only are good bets. You'll be playing "tough craps" if those are the only bets you make (and odds as well of course).



No clue, but good to see you posting.

You should probably check out the ďLiving in a hotelĒ thread. Advice few can give.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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November 17th, 2019 at 10:11:39 PM permalink
How Does Crapless Craps Differ from the Traditional Craps? | Las Vegas Advisor
https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/question/crapless-craps/

When I used to play a crapless craps machine last century I'd just bet the 6 or the 8 Place Bet. If I had to shoot, I'd play the PL. This is such a crippled game. I liked that I could bet any amount on the PB 6/8, not just increments of 6 credits. Some games would keep track of the credits down to the 1/100th.

Live Craps Game #27 - CRAPLESS CRAPS! - New York-New York, Las Vegas, NV - Inside the Casino - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNUz7Ny9_84

Avoid Crapless Craps like the plague
https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/nightlife/2015/10/21/mark-pilarski-casinos-craps/74026002/
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 17, 2019
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
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November 18th, 2019 at 8:16:28 AM permalink
Quote: Lovecomps

What I don't understand is not why he lost that money; I've seen people lose that much before.

I don't understand is why someone with a six figure bankroll would be down at that rat hole in the first place.



Judging by the description of his play, maybe that was the last casino in town that would take his action.

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