rajbhah89
rajbhah89
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February 4th, 2025 at 7:26:44 AM permalink
Hello Everyone,

I am trying this NBA live betting strategy for a month now and seeing very good results.I want to get an opinion on this and see if it is just the +ve variance that is keeping me in green or this is something doable in long run.

Strtategy:

Once the NBA lines are open, For Example Over is 200.5 on -110 odds, I place the 1u bet on Over 203.5 at +120 odds on a sportsbook A

During the live match, when i see the lines change, if it goes higher i hedge the line mostly i try to get 5 to 10 points differnece and keep the under with a same +120 odds in Sportsbook B , say i get +120 on under 213.5 , hoping for a middle bet hit or even if one loses i am still up .2units

On the case of outright under i keep the over if the point difference is over 10 to 15 points, if the live line at the half time is say 190.5 on -110, i keep over 193.5 at positive odds to get the line better than the pre match line.

On trying this last month i have hit around 7% roi and i do this with 15 dollars as unit size and seeing good results.

Any suggestions, comments, or stupidity in this strategy is welcomed. Thank you
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 4th, 2025 at 8:30:18 AM permalink
Quote: rajbhah89

Hello Everyone,

I am trying this NBA live betting strategy for a month now and seeing very good results.I want to get an opinion on this and see if it is just the +ve variance that is keeping me in green or this is something doable in long run.

Strtategy:

Once the NBA lines are open, For Example Over is 200.5 on -110 odds, I place the 1u bet on Over 203.5 at +120 odds on a sportsbook A

During the live match, when i see the lines change, if it goes higher i hedge the line mostly i try to get 5 to 10 points differnece and keep the under with a same +120 odds in Sportsbook B , say i get +120 on under 213.5 , hoping for a middle bet hit or even if one loses i am still up .2units

On the case of outright under i keep the over if the point difference is over 10 to 15 points, if the live line at the half time is say 190.5 on -110, i keep over 193.5 at positive odds to get the line better than the pre match line.

On trying this last month i have hit around 7% roi and i do this with 15 dollars as unit size and seeing good results.

Any suggestions, comments, or stupidity in this strategy is welcomed. Thank you
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I’m guessing you’ve just been lucky so far. I think you have to look at each specific bet INDIVIDUALLY. Let’s take your first bet. The over 203.5 at + 120. Do you have ANY real reason to believe that it is not a -EV bet?

Then you second bet, the live one….. Do you have any reason to believe it is not a -EV bet?

You get my point. Unless you have some reason to believe you have identified a + EV bet, you are just making a bunch of -EV bets! And you know what that adds up to over the long run.

Now, I actually DO what you are suggesting. Sort of. Due to boosts/bonuses/offers I often get a +EV bet as my FIRST bet. Then I can lock in a profit, AT THE EXPENSE of EV, by hedging on a live bet.
rajbhah89
rajbhah89
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February 4th, 2025 at 8:42:15 AM permalink
Yes, I dont have any real reason to believe it is not a -ve. I bet it just because of the +ve odds and if i get a better live line i hedge it in opposite line to bank a minimum profit.

Mostly i try to bet the games the previous day once the lines or open and or may be in the morning hours of the game day to get the better lines before the line movement.

And with this i completely understand, i might get a +ve ev or -ev based on the line movement.but the only thing i am banking here is hedge the same line to bank a minimum profit.
DRich
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February 4th, 2025 at 8:57:45 AM permalink
If you want to bet NBA totals, go to the guru himself. Bob Voulgaris made his fortune betting NBA totals.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 4th, 2025 at 9:31:36 AM permalink
the over/under bets are wildly variant, basketball might be the worst. I guess that goes along with the adage "predicting the exact score pays really well because it is so hard to do". The O/U is not the same thing as that of course, but the variance may explain why you've done well short term

I've messed with live betting and find it frustrating ... the site constantly takes it all down while you're trying to bet, which is no accident. Waiting till it's in between periods helps, but then it's not live, is it? I think the Vig is higher in live betting, but I'm not sure.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
rajbhah89
rajbhah89
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February 4th, 2025 at 10:03:23 AM permalink
Yes, it is live. The pre live bet is made in a different sportsbook and once the live line changes and becomes favourable, the other opposite bet is placed on a different sportbook.

If lucky i hit the middle value where both the bets win, or in case of a loss, i get a small arbitrage value as profit.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 4th, 2025 at 11:11:17 AM permalink
Quote: rajbhah89

Yes, it is live. The pre live bet is made in a different sportsbook and once the live line changes and becomes favourable, the other opposite bet is placed on a different sportbook.

If lucky i hit the middle value where both the bets win, or in case of a loss, i get a small arbitrage value as profit.
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What you are missing is this….. you don’t always get to make that second bet. Let’s say first bet is ‘Over 200’. But game is 20-20 after first quarter. So you are big favorite to LOSE your ENTIRE first bet, with no way to hedge of course.
Now let’s say it was 30-30 after the first quarter. You are now a big favorite to win your ENTIRE bet. But now you are placing a bet AGAINST your main bet, with a possibility of winning both, of course. But since you are paying a ‘vig’ on that second bet, you will win only 90% ish on that second bet.

Once it was 30-30, you built up a certain amount of +EV. All your hedge bet does is give some of that +EV back. Your plan does decrease overall variance of course. But if none of your bets are +EV, it just means you are more likely to lose, just at a slower pace.
rajbhah89
rajbhah89
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February 4th, 2025 at 11:57:46 AM permalink
Yes, this scenario has happened few times, where it has gone 20-20 in first quarter and say the line was 200, it has gone to 190 or 187, in that case i bet the over 187 to get almost a 10 to 15 point differential from the pre live line.

But i do see the risk in both the scenarios you mentioned.

May be i was lucky enough to pull atleast one middle bet win every day and few hedges to be in positive
DRich
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AxelWolf
February 4th, 2025 at 2:45:50 PM permalink
Quote: rajbhah89

Yes, this scenario has happened few times, where it has gone 20-20 in first quarter and say the line was 200, it has gone to 190 or 187, in that case i bet the over 187 to get almost a 10 to 15 point differential from the pre live line.

But i do see the risk in both the scenarios you mentioned.

May be i was lucky enough to pull atleast one middle bet win every day and few hedges to be in positive
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The craziest bet I made was a mistake. i wanted to bet Tennessee +38 against Alabama but I accidentally bet Alabama -38 for $550. I didn't notice the bet was wrong for about 5 minutes in which time I went up to the window to change it but the line had moved to Alabama -39 so they wouldn't cancel it. I deliberated for another 5 minutes or so on what to do and just decided to take Tennessee +39 to offset it. I went to the window to put $550 on Tennessee +39 but when I put it in the cashier tells me the line changed to +39.5 so of course I took that. Alabama wins by 39 and I collect both sides. Just lucky.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
TomG
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AxelWolf
February 4th, 2025 at 3:10:23 PM permalink
I know of more than a few guys doing very well live arbing NBA. Can be worth $100 per hour depending on which US state; and $200 per hour for the ones who are really good at it. Biggest risk is getting limited. It's rarer to hear about guys who take a position and keep betting the same side, but they can do even better in both earnings and keeping accounts viable; there will be some very good night and some very bad nights doing it that way. One of the best tips I got was to learn the rotations for each team, then bet just before the substitutions are announced.
TomG
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AxelWolf
February 4th, 2025 at 3:15:16 PM permalink
another good tip is that the value of each half point can start to change very dramatically toward the end of the fourth quarter. Learn when each place takes down the live betting options and look to find good bets just before that.
AxelWolf
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February 4th, 2025 at 8:05:26 PM permalink
If you are not listening to TomG when it comes to sports betting, you are doomed to fail.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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